Destin

[gm10]

There isn't much early speed in this year's Derby field, and those horses that do have early zip are all drawn in the top half. It's hard to predict how this will affect the outcome of the Derby, but it is bound to be an important factor.

My working hypothesis is that speedy types like Outwork and Danzing Candy have to make it across from a very wide stall, which could result in the highly drawn stalkers/late runners being relegated to the very back of the field.

The horses that are most likely to benefit from such a scenario are Destin and Gun Runner. They have a low draw and, crucially, enough speed to secure a good running position. I especially like Destin under this scenario, since it would give him first run over horses like Creator, Exaggerator and Brody's Cause.

Mor Spirit is drawn high and a stalking type, but is certainly not slow out of the gate. If Gary Stevens makes good use of his tactical speed, he might be able to work out a good trip for the horse.

The morning-line favorite looks very beatable, despite his unbeaten status. I am going to stick my neck out and predict that he doesn't see out the Derby trip.


Final selections:

1. Destin 15/1
2. Mor Spirit 12/1
3. My Man Sam 20/1
4. Danzing Candy 15/1

http://www.latekick.com/events/kentucky-derby-2016.aspx

[VigorsTheGrey]

Originally Posted by gm10

There isn't much early speed in this year's Derby field, and those horses that do have early zip are all drawn in the top half. It's hard to predict how this will affect the outcome of the Derby, but it is bound to be an important factor.

My working hypothesis is that speedy types like Outwork and Danzing Candy have to make it across from a very wide stall, which could result in the highly drawn stalkers/late runners being relegated to the very back of the field.

The horses that are most likely to benefit from such a scenario are Destin and Gun Runner. They have a low draw and, crucially, enough speed to secure a good running position. I especially like Destin under this scenario, since it would give him first run over horses like Creator, Exaggerator and Brody's Cause.

Mor Spirit is drawn high and a stalking type, but is certainly not slow out of the gate. If Gary Stevens makes good use of his tactical speed, he might be able to work out a good trip for the horse.

The morning-line favorite looks very beatable, despite his unbeaten status. I am going to stick my neck out and predict that he doesn't see out the Derby trip.


Final selections:

1. Destin 15/1
2. Mor Spirit 12/1
3. My Man Sam 20/1
4. Danzing Candy 15/1

http://www.latekick.com/events/kentucky-derby-2016.aspx

I agree about destin, but mor spirit is too compromised by post 17, He is going to get passed by danzing candy, outwork, mohaymen, and nyquist. And since destin and guns are drawn inside of nyquist, he'll have to go behind those as well....Mor Spirit will have to send just as hard as danzing candy to get to the 4 path rounding the first turn, the same spot where at least 4 other horses want to be....if he does that he'll have to go very wide and be winded to boot...they'll soon realize they have to drop back but by then his grinding advance will be off kilter...plus from what I read others are showing more interest in the mornings....maybe for 3rd or 4th...I think he's better off accepting that he has to close from behind the first and second flight, conserving energy and then bringing it down the lane ahead of all the closers.

[redeye007]

I am in complete agreement with you regarding Destin. My 2015 Derby model picked American pharaoh and the same model picks Destin for today's Derby. Of course past predictions are no guarantee of future ones but you gotta have a longshot to cash a big ticket in and the odds are about right although I would prefer at least a fifty percent overlay. Current odds are 20/1 vs 15/1 morning line. Lets get lucky

[The Biscuit]

Last 42 Runners in the money had the Ajax pedigree in the 9th generation .... Numbers don't lie ... Good Luck on Destin ... All trends do end ....

[jettroofer]

Originally Posted by The Biscuit

Last 42 Runners in the money had the Ajax pedigree in the 9th generation .... Numbers don't lie ... Good Luck on Destin ... All trends do end ....

I used Ajax to clean a sink one time when I was in Destin, Fl on vacation......will that work???

[Psychotic Parakeet]

Destin is my top choice as well. He towers over this field. The only two things that remain a question mark are having Pletcher as a trainer and the 8-week layoff coming into this race.

[depalma113]

Destin could have won this Derby if his owners were actually smart people.

Hopefully, they wise up and send him to Pimlico.