1-5 Morning Line

[PoloUK6108]

I've watched a lot of horse races, not as many as most on here but still a lot. Can't remember the last 1/5 morning line I've seen, Zenyatta maybe? It makes sense for AP, just saying you don't see it often. I've seen plenty of 1-9 shots, but I've only Heard of shorter off odds than that. If it's shorter than 1/9 does it still just show on the tote as 1/9?

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by PoloUK6108

I've watched a lot of horse races, not as many as most on here but still a lot. Can't remember the last 1/5 morning line I've seen, Zenyatta maybe? It makes sense for AP, just saying you don't see it often. I've seen plenty of 1-9 shots, but I've only Heard of shorter off odds than that. If it's shorter than 1/9 does it still just show on the tote as 1/9?

Yeah still shows 1-9, just like a longshot that might be 200-1----still shows 99-1. There was a horse July 21st at Finger Lakes (where else?) that went off @ 1-20

6 -ALCOLITE 2.10 2.10 2.10
3 -KERRY WASHINGTON 3.10 2.10
4 -LAST RUN 2.10

Good lesson in staying away from favorites, show bets, and maybe Finger Lakes altogether. Good luck Polo

[lamboguy]

if they take place and show for the Haskel, i predict that AMERICAN PHAROAH will pay $2.20 for win.

before knowing how the track will be playing that day i have fair price on him at .13 to the dollar or payoff of $2.26. if i am right, that price is a very skinny one to bet on this horse if you get a rebate.

[Elliott Sidewater]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

if they take place and show for the Haskel, i predict that AMERICAN PHAROAH will pay $2.20 for win.

before knowing how the track will be playing that day i have fair price on him at .13 to the dollar or payoff of $2.26. if i am right, that price is a very skinny one to bet on this horse if you get a rebate.

Assuming you're right, American Pharoah would be a bet at one to five, and a huge overlay at 3-10 or 2-5. Will that happen?? Probably not, as Monmouth Park is too close to New York, not to mention the fact that America (finally) has a Triple Crown winner to obsess over (until he loses a race). What was the last time Pletcher had TWO 30-1 shots on the Morning Line? If it weren't for the crowds, I probably should have planned on going, as I may not live long enough to see the next Triple Crown winner.

[Overlay]

As I understand the various possible approaches to the making of the morning line, a horse being a very short price such as 1-5 (or lower) would depend somewhat on whether the linemaker was assigning odds based on personal opinion as to the horse's actual chance of winning, or instead on an estimation of how the public will bet the horse. I would think that basing it on an estimate of the public's behavior would tend to produce shorter-priced morning-line favorites.

[Redboard]

[NorCalGreg]

Hard to tell, without him being all "dressed up" and all the media around...that's the most famous thouroughbred in the world. Just looks like any other horse at this moment.

[PoloUK6108]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

Hard to tell, without him being all "dressed up" and all the media around...that's the most famous thouroughbred in the world. Just looks like any other horse at this moment.

I know what you mean but I wouldn't say he looks like ANY horse. He looks very well developed at 3 IMO. Eye-catching..but then, so is Dortmund. AP just looks downright stout.

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by PoloUK6108

I know what you mean but I wouldn't say he looks like ANY horse. He looks very well developed at 3 IMO. Eye-catching..but then, so is Dortmund. AP just looks downright stout.

Yeah he does...looking closely, that's one muscular looking equine athlete. Hey Redboard, nice pic. You're from Jersey and you own a camera capable of taking professional shots like that? ....and it hasn't been stolen yet? Thanks for posting --NCG

[davew]

if AP goes off at 1/9, then Competitive Edge and Upstart will be overlays

[cj]

Originally Posted by davew

if AP goes off at 1/9, then Competitive Edge and Upstart will be overlays

I'd be surprised if he goes off 1 to 9, too many people on these big days bet longshots...the Giacomo effect.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

Hard to tell, without him being all "dressed up" and all the media around...that's the most famous thouroughbred in the world. Just looks like any other horse at this moment.

I think you need to look a little closer. Look at the musculature and definition in both the front and the rear. This is no "any other horse". This is a monster.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by davew

if AP goes off at 1/9, then Competitive Edge and Upstart will be overlays

An overlay is a horse that is going off at higher odds than his win probabilities suggest. What would you say the win probabilities of Competitive and Upstart are? Just looking at their odds, yes, one might think that they are overlays, but when you look at their actual probability of beating AP, not so much.

[davew]

Originally Posted by raybo

An overlay is a horse that is going off at higher odds than his win probabilities suggest. What would you say the win probabilities of Competitive and Upstart are? Just looking at their odds, yes, one might think that they are overlays, but when you look at their actual probability of beating AP, not so much.

I have them both at 10% and AP at 65%
if AP has more than 85% of win pool, one or both of my 2nd/3rd choice will be higher than 10/1

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by raybo

I think you need to look a little closer. Look at the musculature and definition in both the front and the rear. This is no "any other horse". This is a monster.

Can you imagine if they led a 9 yr old $2k claimer up near AP, people would be shocked. "My God!! What have you done to that poor animal?" Ribs showing, old whip scars all over his hind quarters, probably a dozen other deficiencies and untreated battle wounds horse experts & Vets would be able to list---but lets hang that dentist in Minnesota. Allright...stepping down from my cosmic soapbox. Carry on.