Software Readouts / Derby

[shanta]

I entered every grade 1 and grade 2 win and place lines for the horses in their last 2 races. I have been able to reduce this field to 4.

When I have a race where after reducing to 4 ALL horses have a balance of 5 the race is completely wide open and I treat all the horses as equal regardless of individual corrolaries. Balance is a readout unique to this software and it does ok.

So I am going to toss Brother Derek for the win. 3/1 ml. Fugghedabout it. If he wins he wins. I am going to bet 2 horses to win and they will be the 2 highest odds horses at 5 minutes to post among the remaining 3 horses:

Point Determined
Sweetnorthernsaint
AP Warrior

am going strictly with PRICE. The attached matchup screen shows Sweetsaint losing CONSIDERABLE ground from 1c to 2c in this race matchup. For him to win he is gonna have to change his style and run the race of his life.

here are 2 screen shots

bl/bl
Matchup

good luck to all
Richie

[shanta]

here is the matchup screen

[andicap]

Shanta,

You still headed to Jersey tomorrow? Going to the zoo with my family and then headed home to watch the Churcill card. -- I've settled on Barbero and Point Determined unless there's some weird bias tomorrow. But I'm not sure there's much value on Barbero in the win pool.

His energy figures suggest he can relax mid-pack until the front-runners collapse.

[46zilzal]

VERY few winners who were not dominant in every category, win off five lifetime starts (actually only a couple on dirt for this Barbaro character)

[RXB]

46, who are your top horses? Assume a relatively normal CD track.

[Lasix1]

The rankings for Derby horses on BRIS Prime Power are:

1-Lawyer Ron 155.9
2-Keyed Entry 154.6
3-Sweetnorthernsaint 153.9
4-Barbaro 153.2
5-Bob and John 153.3
6-Sinister Minister 152.1
7-Bluegrass Cat 151.3
8-Brother Derek 150.1
9-Cause to Believe 147.7
10-Private Vow 147.1
11-Showing Up 146.0
12-Sharp Humor 145.6
13-Steppenwolfer 144.5
14-Deputy Glitters 142.9
15-Point Determined 142.4
16-Flashy Bull 141.9
17-A.P. Warrior 140.6
18-Storm Treasure 140.4
19-Jazil 140.0
20-Seaside Retreat 137.7

Several surprises jump off the rankings such as the relatively high ranking for such longshots as Keyed Entry and Bluegrass Cat, the number one ranking for Lawyer Ron in spite of his modest speed figures, and the relatively low rankings for M/L favorite Bro. Derek, the highly-touted A.P. Warrior and Point Determined.

I don't have a clue how this proprietary formula is constructed or whether it works in the derby, but I find it useful in contender selection on a day-to-day basis.

Thanks to Ritchie and others for the screenshot advise, and again, best of luck to all of you tomorrow!

[FortuneHunter]

Attached is the Worksheet from Handicappers DataMine.
You will need Acrobat Reader to view it.

Based on the Brisnet Figs which we use .....

SWEETNORTHERNSAINT fastest of all

KEYED ENTRY strong early pace

Any questions, please ask

Best Regards, FortuneHunter

[46zilzal]

Originally Posted by RXB

46, who are your top horses? Assume a relatively normal CD track.

Sweetnorthernsaint (although he will be a long way back)
Brother, Point Determined, but could make a case for A.P. Warrior as well

[Vegas711]

Normally I would make all my decisions for who I like to win a race by computer readout results, but this is the Kentucky derby my advice, throw out every stat, figure etc. find the horse with the best story, almost died i.e. sunday silence, the old owner( 92 year old frances genter, unbridled) after this race is over You will hear some great story about the winner.

If I am wrong and I cost you a winner go ahead and rip me a new one.

[michiken]

The photo below shows rankings for ability time (AT) and Counter Energy (CE) using bris pace figs E1, E2 and speed.

The list is sorted by Ability Time descending.

Horses that did not have a CE ranking of 90 have been eliminated - they should not get the distance.

Working from the top down, looks like SNS (CE=107) and Deputy Glitters (CE=99) could be the late closers having to run down Showing Up, Keyed Entry, Brother Derek and Barbaro.

[wolsons]

Here's the output from POL V6.0 - very small model, handle with care...weak top pick is Showing Up with Bluegrass Cat second. As I posted elsewhere, I'm personally going with Sinister Minister (sorry PA!), for what its worth. Good luck to everyone!

Race 10
KyDerby-G1 - 1 1/4 MILES DIRT THOROUGHBRED OPEN THREE YEAR OLDS STAKES. KENTUCKY DERBY PRESENTED BY YUM! BRANDS PURSE $2000000 (20) FOR THREE-YEAR-OLDS WITH AN ENTRY FEE OF $25000 EACH AND A STARTING FEE
Horse Con OddsL
1 30/1 JAZI 1.0 20.17
2 30/1 STEP 1.0 20.17
3 30/1 KEYE 0.0 422.40
4 12/1 SINI 0.4 47.11
5 12/1 POIN 1.0 20.17
6 20/1 SHOW 3.7 4.69
7 12/1 BOB 0.4 50.63
8 4/1 BARB 1.0 20.17
9 20/1 SHAR 1.0 20.17
10 15/1 A. P 1.0 20.17
11 10/1 SWEE 0.0 2116.00
12 50/1 PRIV 0.7 27.23
13 30/1 BLUE 2.3 8.13
14 50/1 DEPU 1.0 20.17
15 50/1 SEAS 1.2 16.21
16 50/1 CAUS 1.0 20.17
17 4/1 LAWY 1.4 14.12
18 3/1 BROT 0.8 24.20
19 50/1 STOR 1.0 20.17
20 50/1 FLAS 1.0 20.17

[Murph]

Top Speed ratings at G1 and G2 levels in the preps.

[Museful]

Same mix as Richie, except I left in Cause to Believe. At expected high odds, I can bet him across the board, then forget about him. Then a 2 horse win bet on Brother Derek and SweetNorthernSaint.

Good luck!

Ted

[JPinMaryland]

1 d4 Nf6 2. Bg5 Ne4 3. Bh4 c5 4. f3 Qa5+ 5. c3 g5 6. fxe4 gxh4
7. Nd2 cxd4 8. Nc4...

[bucktron]

                        [X]No Est Pace Lines   [X]No Sprints   [X]No MidDistances   [X]No Mud  
 
 
                  TODAY'S DATE:5/6/2006    DISTANCE   :1 1/4 PURSE VALUE ---- :2,000,000
           TRACK ----- :CD     RACE NUMBER:10        CLASS DESCRIPTION:Kentucky Derby Prese                

........ NAME ..........1ST*  2ST*  3ND*  NORM   (N) (FM) [RD]  RACE SHAPE FIGS  DSLR   M/L
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[8]Barbaro               304  304*   81*  101*   10   89   97* |130 = 20 34 41 |  35    4-1
[18]Brother Derek        190  190*   71*   95*    5   91   94  |110 = 30 23 23 |  28    3-1
[5]Point Determined      180  180*   67    98*    4   87   95* | 97 = 23 26 11 |  28   12-1
[4]Sinister Minister     165  165*   85*   92     1  100   92  |130 = 42 74  6 |  21   12-1
[11]Sweetnorthernsaint   159  159    73*   94     0   94   93  |117 = 27  7 44 |  28   10-1
[9]Sharp Humor           155  155    57    96*    7   83   95  | 55 =  5  5  5 |  35   20-1
[7]Bob and John          142  142    65    92     4   85   93  |106 = 23 34 15 |  28   12-1
[10]A. P. Warrior        123  123    60    93    -2   84   89  | 78 = 17 18 10 |  28   15-1
[16]Cause to Believe      94   94    56    91    -7   78   92  | 82 = 13 28  5 |  28   50-1
[3]Keyed Entry            71   71    68    86    -7   82   94  |130 = 33 40 23 |  28   30-1
[20]Flashy Bull           58   58    50    87    -3   70   86  | 82 = 15 11 22 |  35   50-1
[1]Jazil                  56   56    62    86    -7   81   96* | 85 =  9  8 33 |  28   30-1
[6]Showing Up             52   52    49    84    -9   90   88  | 84 = 34  5  5 |  14   20-1
[17]Lawyer Ron            44   44    79*   77     1   88   91  |115 = 21 34 27 |  21    4-1
[13]Bluegrass Cat         37   37    65    82    -6   64   91  |104 = 13 22 33 |  21   30-1
[2]Steppenwolfer          30   -3    62    74    -8   83  100* | 57 =  4  9  9 |  21   30-1
[12]Private Vow           30   -5    53    67    -9   56   88  | 65 = 16 11  4 |  21   50-1
[14]Deputy Glitters       30   23    51    83    -8   66   88  | 96 = 18 15 27 |  28   50-1
[15]Seaside Retreat       30   -8    54    72    -5   54   88  | 56 =  6  8  8 |  21   50-1
[19]Storm Treasure        30   -9    48    79    -1   70   89  | 40 =  0  0  0 |  21   50-1
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                             Estimated L.B. Call  1&2&3&Finish              Average     Average       Running
                          Call-1     Call-2     Call-3     Finish          Earnings   Purse Value     Pattern
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[8]Barbaro                  3.53        .81        .00        .00          169,800       292,759    (M)Runner           
[18]Brother Derek           6.01       4.06       3.13       3.02          145,260       320,574    (M)Runner           
[5]Point Determined         7.82       3.68       2.36       1.85           43,388       139,214    (F)Runner           
[4]Sinister Minister         .00        .00       1.83       4.47          100,776       370,500    (M)Runner           
[11]Sweetnorthernsaint      8.05      10.98       6.92       3.68           62,833       203,784    (M)Runner           
[9]Sharp Humor              9.19       6.28       4.16       2.85           65,201       173,540    (M)Runner           
[7]Bob and John             5.12       2.01       3.03       4.85           75,563       238,621    (S)Runner           
[10]A. P. Warrior           9.32       5.15       4.21       4.09           47,148       177,918    (M)Runner           
[16]Cause to Believe        9.65       9.06       6.79       5.34           39,057        93,214    (M)Runner           
[3]Keyed Entry               .45       2.28       4.65       7.84           49,400       120,488    (F)Runner           
[20]Flashy Bull            11.59      10.61       8.53       7.26           17,739       103,000    (S)Runner           
[1]Jazil                   15.79      15.69      11.21       7.54           32,036       159,516    (S)Runner           
[6]Showing Up               5.94       5.61       6.83       8.86           80,167       138,218    (M)Runner           
[17]Lawyer Ron              8.50      11.81      11.62      12.25           87,143       263,786    (S)Runner           
[13]Bluegrass Cat           8.10       8.90       8.93       9.77           51,611       141,401    (M)Runner           
[2]Steppenwolfer           14.76      15.96      14.42      13.70           45,190       153,186    (M)Runner           
[12]Private Vow            10.30      15.52      16.02      17.34           60,314       181,736    (M)Runner           
[14]Deputy Glitters         5.68       4.97       6.64       9.13           29,364       148,410    (M)Runner           
[15]Seaside Retreat        15.58      16.48      15.08      14.49           38,090       126,968    (S)Runner           
[19]Storm Treasure         16.63      15.68      12.93      10.99           35,124       147,374    (S)Runner           
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------