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View Poll Results: Who wins HOY? Accelerate or Justify?
Accelerate wins HOY 119 42.35%
Justify wins HOY 162 57.65%
Voters: 281. This poll is closed

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Old 11-05-2018, 06:30 PM   #61
Andy Asaro
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Originally Posted by ReplayRandall View Post
Quote from Prince of Tides---Nick Nolte....Are you too young for that?
Never saw it.
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Old 11-05-2018, 07:46 PM   #62
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Do you think Accelerate will be inducted into the Hall of Fame?....Maybe.

The first 11 Triple Crown Winners are all in, with AP a lock in the next year. Eventually, Justify will be inducted as well....There's a reason they all get in, but that escapes most here who think Accelerate will be HOY.....TC winners are auto HOY for the last 80 years, as it's the almost unthinkable dream of every owner and trainer in the game to ever have one......Most everyone would just be extremely happy for a Derby winner.
That's true, but that doesn't mean Justify is deserving.

He's a CLEAR vote against for the HOF. Clear. His Belmont win isn't even really legitimate.
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Old 11-05-2018, 08:03 PM   #63
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That's true, but that doesn't mean Justify is deserving.

He's a CLEAR vote against for the HOF. Clear. His Belmont win isn't even really legitimate.
Justify will be 2018 HOY and will be in the HOF inside of 6 years....Clearly, that's what WILL happen, deserving or not.
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Old 11-05-2018, 10:19 PM   #64
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Justify will be 2018 HOY and will be in the HOF inside of 6 years....Clearly, that's what WILL happen, deserving or not.
I agree with both predictions. But I am rooting against it.
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Old 11-06-2018, 08:19 AM   #65
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Historic

Well...

History is something you have to consider with the HOY IMHO:

Pacific Classic:

1991 Best Pal
1992 Missionary Ridge
1993 Betrando
1994 Tinners Way
1995 Tinners Way
1996 Dare and Go
1997 Gentelmen
1998 Free House
1999 General Challenge
2000 Skimming
2001 Skimming
2002 Came Home
2003 Candy Ride
2004 Pleasantly Perfect
2005 Borrego
2006 Lava Man
2007 Student Council
2008 Go Between
2009 Richard's Kid
2010 Richard's Kid
2011 Acclamation
2012 Dullahan
2013 Game On Dude
2014 Shared Belief
2015 Beholder
2016 California Chrome
2017 Collected
2018 Accelerate

Santa Anita Handicap:
1991 Farma Way
1992 Best Pal
1993 Sir Beaufort
1994 Stuka
1995 Urgent Request
1996 Mr Purple
1997 Siphon
1998 Malek
1999 Free House
2000 General Challenge
2001 Tiznow
2002 Milwaukee Brew
2003 Milwaukee Brew
2004 Southern Image
2005 Rock Hard Ten
2006 Lava Man
2007 Lava Man
2008 Heatseeker
2009 Einstein
2010 Misremembered
2011 Game On Dude
2012 Ron The Greek
2013 Game On Dude
2014 Game On Dude
2015 Shared Belief
2016 Melatonin
2017 Shaman Ghost
2018 Accelerate

Gold Cup:

1991 Marquetry
1992 Sultry Song
1993 Best Pal
1994 Slew of Damascus
1995 Cigar
1996 Siphon
1997 Gentelmen
1998 Skip Away
1999 Real Quiet
2000 Early Pioneer
2001 Aptitude
2002 Sky Jack
2003 Congaree
2004 Total Impact
2005 Lava Man
2006 Lava Man
2007 Lava Man
2008 Mast Track
2009 Rail Trip
2010 Awesome Gen
2011 First Dude
2012 Game On Dude
2013 Game On Dude
2014 Majestic Harbor
2015 Hard Aces
2016 Melatonin
2017 Cupid
2018 Accelerate

Breeders' Cup Classic:

1991 Black Tie Affair
1992 A.P. Indy
1993 Arcangues
1994 Concern
1995 Cigar
1996 Alphabet Soup
1997 Skip Away
1998 Awesome Again
1999 Cat Thief
2000 Tiznow
2001 Tiznow
2002 Volponi
2003 Pleasantly Perfect
2004 Ghostzapper
2005 Saint Liam
2006 Invasor
2007 Curlin
2008 Raven's Pass
2009 Zenyatta
2010 Blame
2011 Drosselmeyer
2012 Fort Larned
2013 Mucho Macho Man
2014 Bayern
2015 American Pharoah
2016 Arrogate
2017 Gun Runner
2018 Accelerate

I see only one horse to bag all these in one year.

Also, this goes back to 1991. We are looking at 27 years of history there.
No horse has been able to accomplish this West Coast Grand Superfecta in 27 years.
That is one hell of a lot of history, and look at the great horses that couldn't pull this off. Quite a list!

It would be a shame to screw this horse out of HOTY.

On the other hand, triple crown winners don't come along very often either.

Maybe a double winner this year, or somebody gets really screwed.

It's not an easy pick. IMHO.
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Old 11-06-2018, 11:55 AM   #66
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You could add the Goodwood (now Awesome Again) to the list, and obviously he'd be the only won to do the SoCal Grand Slam plus the BC Classic.

This is going to be a tough decision for me personally. Going to put it aside for a while and let the recency bias wear off and revisit at voting time.
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Old 11-06-2018, 09:09 PM   #67
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Excerpt:

Since my last column on this topic, no horse that Justify beat has done anything to support his Horse of the Year credentials. Look no further than the Breeders’ Cup Mile and the Classic. Bravazo, a half-length behind Justify in the Preakness, was third in the BC Mile, beaten 5¼ lengths. In the Classic, Mendelssohn dead last in the Kentucky Derby, ran fifth, beaten four lengths. And consider McKinzie, who was Baffert’s Derby horse before getting injured. He ran 12th of 14 on the BC Classic.

As I said in closing my previous column: “A four-month racing career can certainly win a Triple Crown, but a longer, more productive career may be better for the industry as a whole and perhaps more deserving when it comes to handing out Eclipse Awards.”
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Old 11-06-2018, 09:19 PM   #68
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https://twitter.com/racetrackandy/st...90692112429057

Excerpt:

Since my last column on this topic, no horse that Justify beat has done anything to support his Horse of the Year credentials. Look no further than the Breeders’ Cup Mile and the Classic. Bravazo, a half-length behind Justify in the Preakness, was third in the BC Mile, beaten 5¼ lengths. In the Classic, Mendelssohn dead last in the Kentucky Derby, ran fifth, beaten four lengths. And consider McKinzie, who was Baffert’s Derby horse before getting injured. He ran 12th of 14 on the BC Classic.

As I said in closing my previous column: “A four-month racing career can certainly win a Triple Crown, but a longer, more productive career may be better for the industry as a whole and perhaps more deserving when it comes to handing out Eclipse Awards.”
What was the point of him throwing McKinzie in there? They never faced each other. And he was never Baffert's Derby horse any more than Justify was. He just ran sooner and was more well known.

It also isn't uncommon for horses to do nothing after the TC grind. That is nothing new, it ruins a lot of horses. Chasing Justify could very well be a part of their demise.
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Old 11-06-2018, 09:21 PM   #69
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As I said in closing my previous column: “A four-month racing career can certainly win a Triple Crown, but a longer, more productive career may be better for the industry as a whole and perhaps more deserving when it comes to handing out Eclipse Awards.”
So....How many times are you going to repeat yourself?....It isn't going to change a thing, but just keep doing it over and over Sport, and pretty soon no one will read anything you post.....Your act is tiresome right now, about to permanently tune you out unless you pivot to more meaningful subject matter.....But what do I know?
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Old 11-06-2018, 09:32 PM   #70
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If the "Horse of the Year" is an award for the 'best horse of the year'...then Accelerate should win it. But if it's a popularity vote for the horse who has best "promoted" the various interests of the game...then I could see it going to Justify.
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Old 11-06-2018, 09:45 PM   #71
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Originally Posted by Andy Asaro View Post
Since my last column on this topic, no horse that Justify beat has done anything to support his Horse of the Year credentials. Look no further than the Breeders’ Cup Mile and the Classic. Bravazo, a half-length behind Justify in the Preakness, was third in the BC Mile, beaten 5¼ lengths. In the Classic, Mendelssohn dead last in the Kentucky Derby, ran fifth, beaten four lengths. And consider McKinzie, who was Baffert’s Derby horse before getting injured. He ran 12th of 14 on the BC Classic.
Kind of a silly argument to bring up when you hold Accelerate to the same standard.

Of all the races he won this year, just 3 horses (out of 20 different horses) returned to win another race...and only one of those was able to win multiple times. They were:

Pavel...who won the Stephen Foster G1 amid a series of defeats.

City of Light...who took the BC Dirt Mile G1 after racing sparingly (and losing) during the summer and fall.

Ike Walker...who took 2 optional claimers (he was in for the tag) from 6 or so starts after being defeated by Accelerate in the San Pasqual.

Meanwhile, Justify beat 3 subsequent winners in his allowance score. A graded stakes winner (Core Beliefs) came out of the SA Derby.

In the KY Derby, Good Magic (G1), Audible, Hofburg, Promises Fulfilled (G1, MGSW), Lone Sailor (G3), and Firenze Fire (MGSW) all won subsequently and Mendelssohn and Bravazo placed in multiple Grade 1s each.

In addition to the Derby runners aforementioned, the Preakness produced subsequent graded stakes winner Tenfold. The new shooters in the Belmont did nothing subsequently.
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Old 11-06-2018, 11:39 PM   #72
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Kind of a silly argument to bring up when you hold Accelerate to the same standard.

Of all the races he won this year, just 3 horses (out of 20 different horses) returned to win another race...and only one of those was able to win multiple times. They were:

Pavel...who won the Stephen Foster G1 amid a series of defeats.

City of Light...who took the BC Dirt Mile G1 after racing sparingly (and losing) during the summer and fall.

Ike Walker...who took 2 optional claimers (he was in for the tag) from 6 or so starts after being defeated by Accelerate in the San Pasqual.

Meanwhile, Justify beat 3 subsequent winners in his allowance score. A graded stakes winner (Core Beliefs) came out of the SA Derby.

In the KY Derby, Good Magic (G1), Audible, Hofburg, Promises Fulfilled (G1, MGSW), Lone Sailor (G3), and Firenze Fire (MGSW) all won subsequently and Mendelssohn and Bravazo placed in multiple Grade 1s each.

In addition to the Derby runners aforementioned, the Preakness produced subsequent graded stakes winner Tenfold. The new shooters in the Belmont did nothing subsequently.
How many of those horses Justify beat have ever won a race over older horses?

By definition the Derby winner will beat some stakes winners. Means nothing because it isn't open competition.
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Old 11-07-2018, 01:12 AM   #73
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How many of those horses Justify beat have ever won a race over older horses?

By definition the Derby winner will beat some stakes winners. Means nothing because it isn't open competition.
In addition to Promises Fulfilled, who won the Grade 2 Phoenix over older horses, Shivermetimbers and Pepe Tono both won first condition allowance races over older horses during the summer.

Most recently, both the latter two horses ran in the same second condition allowance race at Santa Anita in October. They both placed (2nd and 3rd respectively), finishing in front of--coincidentally--Ike Walker, the only horse Accelerate beat all year that won more than one subsequent race.

Audible is scheduled to face his elders in December and I presume the Clark, Cigar Mile, and Native Diver might draw a 3yo or two.
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Old 11-07-2018, 01:12 AM   #74
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Also, this goes back to 1991. We are looking at 27 years of history there.
No horse has been able to accomplish this West Coast Grand Superfecta in 27 years.

It would be a shame to screw this horse out of HOTY.

Uh, they don't have a West Coast Horse of the Year.

So give up already.
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Old 11-07-2018, 01:13 AM   #75
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The Zenyatta / RA thing was produced by the unbalanced electorate, dominated by eastern writers.

This is very different.


Um, no it isn't...
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