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Old 01-12-2019, 08:56 PM   #16
davew
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeff P View Post
Look at it this way --

How many horses does a player win bet that turn out to be actual +EV overlays?

For me, a realistic number might be a handful out of say 65-80 runners on a given race card.

For others, your mileage may vary.

Now, how many +EV overlays can you realistically expect when a track employee creates a betting interest for Roulette where he takes that rare actual +EV overlay and combines it with other random horses? Thus diluting the value.

For me, the answer would be just about never.

But again, for others, your mileage may vary.



-jp

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Jeff, your thoughts pretty much echo the linked op/ed

https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.co...ll-never-work/

But both of you are assuming there are not any overlays and the takeout will kill you. I disagree but the pools are small (most I have seen lately are in the $300 to $1200 range) and partly hidden (can find current odds, but not pool size before race)

If you add up the probabilities in each group and then compare odds, there are some bets. Here are a couple examples

52,41,7 -- 3/5, 1, 6
44,48,8 -- 2, 1/5, 5
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Old 01-12-2019, 09:38 PM   #17
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I'm only guessing here but aren't they just trying to simplify the problem in order to bring in more action?

Christina would probably say obviously.

I support the idea of it though because it may lead to more eyeballs.
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Old 01-23-2019, 12:06 PM   #18
davew
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at Gulfstream today on Xpressbet
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Old 01-23-2019, 01:23 PM   #19
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Didn't Fuss say he played it online once or twice?
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Old 01-23-2019, 03:47 PM   #20
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first day at GP and the pools must be small (not showing totals after replay like SA)
2nd race winner $4.6 roulette $6.6
7th race last minute went from 3/5 to paying $8.40
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Old 01-24-2019, 04:04 PM   #21
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Originally Posted by davew View Post
first day at GP and the pools must be small (not showing totals after replay like SA)
2nd race winner $4.6 roulette $6.6
7th race last minute went from 3/5 to paying $8.40
First five or six races yesterday only a couple topped $200. I haven't paid attention, just saw a tweet about it.
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Old 01-24-2019, 07:29 PM   #22
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The pools in results charts today. Most in the $300 to $600 area. It is more like a slot machine now, as pools are hidden and someone betting $50 makes the other 2 decent overlays.
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Old 01-25-2019, 12:06 AM   #23
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I wish Gulfstream spent more time on communication with the public & less time instituting wagers that handle a few hundred dollars per race.


I didn't see any mention anywhere that roulette was coming to GP, and more importantly I didn't see any mention from any official Gulfstream outlet (website, twitter page of theirs or any employees) that they had rescinded their decision to make this Sunday a mandatory payout for the pick 6. The only place I could find a mention of this was from DRF's Mike Welsch on twitter and then an item on DRF Live, so not even in an article. Glad I caught wind of this earlier this evening just as I was about to dive into the Sunday PP's.
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Old 01-27-2019, 11:14 PM   #24
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I believe it was the first Gulfstream race on Friday the pool was $72.
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Old 01-27-2019, 11:28 PM   #25
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I get that the roulette is parimutuel in structure, and the odds do change from the initial offering...so how come there are no boards that show what the CURRENT ODDS are...? Why would I bet on something that I didn’t know what it is going to pay...? Or at least make the attempt cause I know odds change anyway with late betting, but gee whiz, make the attempt...it is probably going to be dropped very soon anyway, the sooner the better, IMO...
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Old 01-28-2019, 07:56 AM   #26
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I believe it was the first Gulfstream race on Friday the pool was $72.
On Sunday 1/27 the first pool was $28 -
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Old 01-28-2019, 07:57 AM   #27
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I get that the roulette is parimutuel in structure, and the odds do change from the initial offering...so how come there are no boards that show what the CURRENT ODDS are...? Why would I bet on something that I didn’t know what it is going to pay...? Or at least make the attempt cause I know odds change anyway with late betting, but gee whiz, make the attempt...it is probably going to be dropped very soon anyway, the sooner the better, IMO...
on Xpressbet, on the wager board it shows current odds - but meaningless without pool size as your $2 bet could easily move odds.
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Old 01-28-2019, 10:41 AM   #28
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on Xpressbet, on the wager board it shows current odds - but meaningless without pool size as your $2 bet could easily move odds.
I see the odds too.

Vigers, where aren't you seeing them?
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Old 02-02-2019, 05:31 PM   #29
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Holy Bull winner paid $60+, but the Roulette paid $4.00.

I'm not seeing where this can get any kind of traction at all.
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Old 02-02-2019, 06:53 PM   #30
davew
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Holy Bull winner paid $60+, but the Roulette paid $4.00.

I'm not seeing where this can get any kind of traction at all.
You must not understand the bet - you get a 'basket of horses'
and in your example there were 3 other horses

generally it seems Red is favorite averaging near 50% probability, Black is next near 40% probability and green is longshot near 10% probability.

The highest pay-off I have seen was first at Gulfstream today green $17.20
and lowest at $2.10
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