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View Poll Results: What are the true odds of a Baffert Trifecta in the Kentucky Derby
200-1 or more 68 37.99%
100-1 to 199-1 22 12.29%
60-1 to 99-1 14 7.82%
20-1 to 59-1 16 8.94%
Ain't gonna happen so I wouldn't bet a nickel 59 32.96%
Voters: 179. This poll is closed

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Old 12-11-2018, 11:19 AM   #16
Spalding No!
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There aren't a lot of G1 races at 1 1/4 miles! Gun Runner's previous tries included the Dubai World Cup where he got beat by a freakish performance by Arrogate.

And Candy Ride himself was a G1 winner at 1 1/4 miles.

Game Winner should do fine if he is good enough.
Your points are well taken, but as far as the 2017 Dubai World Cup goes, I would counter that despite Arrogate spotting the field 2-3 lengths coming out of the gate, Gun Runner was still unable to capitalize.

I think that says more about Gun Runner's stamina than it does about Arrogate's perceived greatness.

Certainly Arrogate's subsequent performances appear to support that contention.
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Old 12-29-2018, 12:50 AM   #17
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As Dean Wormer would say:

Zero point Zero
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Old 01-08-2019, 01:03 PM   #18
ultracapper
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Just posting because every time I log in it tells me that there are posts in this thread I haven't read. I've read every post and link and the poll and everything else, so I'm hoping this will stop it. There hasn't been a new post since the day after Christmas.
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Old 01-08-2019, 01:12 PM   #19
Spalding No!
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Just posting because every time I log in it tells me that there are posts in this thread I haven't read. I've read every post and link and the poll and everything else, so I'm hoping this will stop it. There hasn't been a new post since the day after Christmas.
It means someone has recently voted in the poll.
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Old 01-08-2019, 01:15 PM   #20
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Ah-ha! Mystery solved. Thank you Spalding No.
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Old 01-09-2019, 12:31 AM   #21
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A million to one but that's only an estimate.
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Old 01-11-2019, 05:29 PM   #22
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The Baffert horses have mostly been stinking up the joint at Santa Anita so far this meet.
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Old 01-12-2019, 05:52 PM   #23
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I will go to my grave being vehemently opposed to uncoupled entries. Remember the six-horse entry that John Nerud had in the Beldame one year? Imagine the show prices if none of the six had finished in the money.
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Old 01-21-2019, 08:27 AM   #24
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He has 17 nominated to Santa Anita derby
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Old 01-21-2019, 11:07 AM   #25
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Originally Posted by dilanesp View Post
I think you underrate Candy Ride as a sire. (Agree with you about City Zip though.) Game Winner is a very legitimate Derby horse.
I wouldn't count out Improbable because City Zip is his sire, his dame sire is AP Indy who is a stamina influence.
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Old 02-04-2019, 01:03 AM   #26
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Why is this thread not moved over to the TC forum?

Inquiring minds (who had their thread stopped cold about Mott's potential superstar) want to know!

Though it's nice to see top horses and races actually discussed in the racing forum.
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Old 02-05-2019, 03:57 PM   #27
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Good point, I'll move it.
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Old 02-05-2019, 08:36 PM   #28
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Best three in the crop . . .

Improbable
Game Winner / Mucho Gusto
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If all three get in, he has a shot at it.
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Old 02-06-2019, 10:53 AM   #29
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He's got Game Winner who passes the class test and Improbable who passes the eye test. Both have the Derby strong Raise A Native sire line. Both are Buckpasser-x and both have a strong tail female. Barring setbacks, both are likely to secure a gate. It's early yet with the season's stronger class and distance tests pending. Baffert has plenty of time to pull a Pletcher and have four or five gates. Certainly not inconceivable for Baffert to pull the triple however I would not expect it and would need 200-1 before I played such a scenario.
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Old 04-22-2019, 06:13 PM   #30
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Room for more?

You betcha

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