Win Odds Whiners - helping or hurting?

[TiffaniO]

Originally Posted by Poindexter

Okay, he was grateful for your continued business (something the racing industry has never been) and showed his appreciation by giving you free labor. If your friend started buying from him with the same vigor you do, he likely would have done the same for her. That is his strategy for building his business, nothing wrong with that. If your friend complained to him that you paid less he could in good standing say yes, but she also has spent a lot of money with me over time and because of that, I throw in the labor with her purchases. I would be happy to do the same for you if you spend continuously like she does. No reasonable person will be offended by his stance. No reason he has to be secretive about the deal you are getting (as racing is about all the deals they make).

However, with racing the setup is a complete joke. If you bet the pick 4 at Laurel you get a double digit rebate. If a resident of state that doesn't get rebates bets and bets just as much as you, might get a 2% rebate. If some local high roller that bets as much as you, bets on track what does he get? This is a big problem. This is why this sport will never go anywhere and that is why this industry is a complete f***ing joke. Moreover, how can racing legitimately justify to their patrons that live in the wrong state, use the wrong ADW, or bet on track without rebates that you are getting a double digit rebate when they don't and they bet just as much as you do. Guess what they cannot. So rebates are a big secret that hopefully nobody finds out about, when most of know they are out there.

So to echo Tom here, if this industry wants people to stop complaing, start doing the right and stop screwing it's loyal customers (us few idiots that are still left). As Andy A says, players are not complaining enough.

It sounds like you guys should have more an issue with the state you live in than the actual tracks... but it’s easier to blame them.

There’s only one way to get their attention... boycott. I’d bet on that not happening without a rebate.

[green80]

Originally Posted by TiffaniO

There’s my rebate grid. I play mainly tris supers and pick 4s.

Blame your state, it’s legislature and lobbyists... and the tracks behind the scenes holding you back.

It is survival of the fittest. I cash enough tickets to wager about 500k a year and I make $48k a year at my day job. So it’s not like I have tens of thousands to deposit.

Where are you getting those rebates??

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by Prioress Ply

Go to a Home Depot and buy a light bulb. Then go to a manufacturer or their distributor and buy 10,000 light bulbs. See if you get the same price.

That's all that's going on here. If you don't like it don't buy the light bulb unless you have to (or really want to) and then pay the price that's listed and shut up.

The game sucks-- everyone's known that for years now. But the OP is right--the whining just goes on and on. Losers whine; winners get even or they get out.

Actually, it'd be more like the person with 10,000 light bulbs getting a better price than you, then if your light bulb works they come over to your house and smash it with a hammer.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by TiffaniO

.

There’s only one way to get their attention... boycott.

That is essentially what has happened over a 20 year period, but it hasnt gotten any attention. Every year a few more players have moved on to other investments. Its not a mass strike but enough that the only thing holding the industry up is the crw teams and a few really large players.

[Prioress Ply]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

That's the standard company line...but it doesn't seem to serve the company too well. One wonders why you "winners" find the whining so troublesome.

We "winners" have walked away and so we don't bitch and whine about how mean the big bad company is. If enough people did so pretty soon the whales will just be betting against each other and the company will be out of business. It just amazes me people continue to bet into pools where the rake is 20 or 25%.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Prioress Ply

We "winners" have walked away and so we don't bitch and whine about how mean the big bad company is. If enough people did so pretty soon the whales will just be betting against each other and the company will be out of business. It just amazes me people continue to bet into pools where the rake is 20 or 25%.

I don't see how I can disagree with you here.

[Denny]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

That is essentially what has happened over a 20 year period, but it hasnt gotten any attention. Every year a few more players have moved on to other investments. Its not a mass strike but enough that the only thing holding the industry up is the crw teams and a few really large players.

You forgot the casino dole/subsidy. Purses and salaries paid for in large part by the free money.

If anybody wants to see the difference it makes, just look at Yonkers vs Meadowlands.

One just raised purses by 10%, runs five days days a week, the other races two days a week because it's all they can afford and their purses are a pittance.

In thoroughbreds you can compare NY to California.

NY to NJ is too laughable to even compare.

[Track Phantom]

Some whine. Some are just frustrated. Some are both.

I agree with survival of the fittest but also agree that the current business model of catering to batch bettors is shortsighted and detrimental to the game.

Horse racing needs more people involved, not more money. I applaud Oaklawn Park for eliminating this garbage handle from their pools. One track out of 100's actually cares about the health of the game.

[Seabiscuit@AR]

I don't agree with the example provided by Prioress Ply where it is said this is normal business practice where if you buy 1 light bulb you will pay a higher price per light bulb than a person who makes a bulk order for 10000 light bulbs

In the betting game what the whales and other players are looking to buy is not light bulbs but value bets which yield higher than break even returns

With a rebated tote the biggest rebate players are effectively cornering the market on value bets so there are none left for the players with no rebate. So instead of the whale saying "sell me 10000 light bulbs at a discount" the whale is saying "if you give me a discount I will buy every single light bulb you have". It is more of an exclusive dealing arrangement. The end result of this is there are no light bulbs left for anybody else so they have to stay in the dark or scrounge around for a candle

This result happens because when a rebated whale bets on a tote they can send the ROI of the bet below break even while they themselves profit after rebate

On the Betfair platform it is different as the discounts/rebates for commission rates work out better. On Betfair the more you bet the lower your commission rate. So a big betting player might be on 2% while a player who rarely bets might be paying 5% commission. It varies from market to market what the base commission rate is. The key on Betfair is the fixed odds combined with the fluctuations in the odds. So a horse might have average odds of 5.00 but during trading it could trade anywhere between 4.00 and 6.00. This means a player paying the biggest commission rate can still find value bets on Betfair if they strike at the right time when the price fluctuates to its best price. So new players can break into the game on Betfair. But they cannot do this on a rebated tote

Also on Betfair if a big whale player is placing oversized bets then the market will see this and respond by lowering the odds. So the big whale on the biggest discount rate can end up striking lower average odds than a smaller player (they might have to take 4.20 then 4.00 and some 3.80 to get all their bet on while the smaller player could grab the 4.20 and have their full order filled). This balances out the lower commission rate paid by the whales. Contrast this with a rebated tote where the players making the biggest bets (and so impacting the price the most) are always getting the best odds. The rebated tote is unfair and too heavily weighted to the whale players hence the whingeing

But I do agree that the best solution for those not getting a rebate is to just quit the game and let the whales destroy each other on their rebated tote

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by Seabiscuit@AR

But I do agree that the best solution for those not getting a rebate is to just quit the game and let the whales destroy each other on their rebated tote

And that's what has been happening for the last 15 years. Ironically, it's the unfair situation that the average player deals with that makes the whales all the more valuable and keeps the tracks from doing anything that might hurt their whale handle. It's a vicious cycle of racing spiraling downward---it's really more of a slow slide---and clinging to every penny along the way at the expense of the average player.

Personally, I don't think it's whining. I think it's justified complaining that something you used to love has been diluted and compromised.

[Elliott Sidewater]

Originally Posted by pandy

There have always been idiots and loudmouths at the tracks. I particularly dislike the jerks who shout and curse at the jockeys, who are risking their lives out there. Usually, the people who are the loudest are the dumbest, as you can tell by the things they whine and complain about. In New York, the most talented and hard-riding jockeys usually got the most heckling, which shows you how stupid people can be. Angel Cordero, for instance, used to hear a lot of heckling and he was not only the best rider, but no one tried harder to win every race.

And when Cordero retired, they switched their tack to Jerry Bailey. The nickname was "the human anchor".

[biggestal99]

Originally Posted by Seabiscuit@AR

On the Betfair platform it is different as the discounts/rebates for commission rates work out better. On Betfair the more you bet the lower your commission rate. So a big betting player might be on 2% while a player who rarely bets might be paying 5% commission. It varies from market to market what the base commission rate is. The key on Betfair is the fixed odds combined with the fluctuations in the odds. So a horse might have average odds of 5.00 but during trading it could trade anywhere between 4.00 and 6.00. This means a player paying the biggest commission rate can still find value bets on Betfair if they strike at the right time when the price fluctuates to its best price. So new players can break into the game on Betfair. But they cannot do this on a rebated tote

I dont mind playing against bots who have a lower commission than I.

If I dont like the price on a horse i am going to lay. I make my own or I pass the race. Esp in US races that dont have a lot of liquidity. I make my own prices on horse that I am going to lay. If they are matched great, if they arent matched onto the next market.

In fixed odds betting, you either get your price or you pass the market.

cant do that betting against whales in the PM game.

Allan

[PaceAdvantage]

I've never minded rebates. People who bet a ton of money should get perks others who bet very little don't get.

You buy more, you should get a better price.

What I have a problem with is the ability of these whales to bet a massive amount of money into the pools in the last 20-30 seconds such that I have no chance to counter their money because I don't know what the win price of the horses will be until after the race goes off.

That is patently unfair, and is essentially giving these whales FIXED PRICE wagering in a PARI-MUTUEL pool. Do you guys accusing me of whining think it's fair the whales get to play a FIXED PRICE game in a pari-mutuel pool?

I certainly don't. And any objective person wouldn't think so either.

So what to do about it?

If we can't get technology to give us instantaneous price updates because the tracks are too damn cheap to invest in new technology, then I say the whales should be RESTRICTED FROM BETTING LARGE AMOUNTS OF MONEY once the horses reach the gate. And if they do so, they should be cut off completely.

Tracks can easily implement a restriction on the amount of money these whales can dump into the pools at the last second, and if they don't live up to these restrictions they can be dumped.

So tracks need to reexamine these agreements and look into restricting these mammoths even further when it comes to dumping all this money into the pools at the last second.

That's the only thing I have whined about.

And I certainly don't consider it whining. And those that do are just being assholes for the sake of being an asshole.

[jay68802]

I do not think that the CW teams are getting a "fixed" price, but it would and should be considered more of a "controlled" price. With the amounts they are wagering the final odds are a lot closer to their line that what the public is saying. And the long term effect is that horse racing is cannibalizing itself. Take rebates out and it only slows the process. The Pari-mutual system is designed for each player to have a vote and the voting determines the final odds. But when a large % of the money is controlled by a small % of the voters, it ceases to be a true Pari-mutual system.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by castaway01

And that's what has been happening for the last 15 years. Ironically, it's the unfair situation that the average player deals with that makes the whales all the more valuable and keeps the tracks from doing anything that might hurt their whale handle. It's a vicious cycle of racing spiraling downward---it's really more of a slow slide---and clinging to every penny along the way at the expense of the average player.

Personally, I don't think it's whining. I think it's justified complaining that something you used to love has been diluted and compromised.

The suggestion that players are "whining" when they air their grievances is absurd...as is the notion that the players should just "shut up or leave the game" if they are unhappy with the game's current developments. After all...isn't the disgruntled horseplayer allowed to display his/her constitutionally-protected "freedom of speech"?