American racing: Almost dead?

[speculus]

Assessment of current American horse racing scene by a top British newspaper:

http://www.theguardian.com/sport/201...-awfully-close

[RacingFan1992]

Why not a match race? (Kidding)

[WP1981]

I don't know if it will die naturally or be outlawed first. I am seeing more and more anti racing sentimate and eventually a politician will run with it. The day will come, when it will come who knows.

[tzipi]

They should've got rid of drug trainers a long time ago, but they didn't. It ruined the sport for many people. I used to put in a few thousands of dollars a year betting up until about 2 years ago. So many better and safer investments today. I only bet the Derby and Breeders Cup Saturday now. The Daily Racing Form is pointless now. Past performances do not show who's going to be running on drugs today or what trainer has hid his horses to run on something undetectable today. A horse running up the track at $20,000 CLM numerous times, then runs lights out to beat the same horses he's got crushed by the last 5 times at bet down odds to win by 3 going away today.
Drug trainers are allowed to come back to the sport time and time again after numerous doping infractions. It's always in the papers during big media time for racing and it's been a big sign for people to stay away from what I've seen with friends.

I mean even look at the "late money Gulfstream" thread. The sport is killing itself to the point it's past ever coming back in the public eye. Way too many excuses have been made for way too many years. It's a shame. Such a great sport.

Also whales on computers have ruined it. I know so many people, including myself who would bet exacta's based on the closing numbers on the tote board or screens and then see a huge drop as the official prices come up. It was never like that years ago. I gave up and have moved on money wise. But, I will still watch the big races.

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by speculus

Assessment of current American horse racing scene by a top British newspaper:

http://www.theguardian.com/sport/201...-awfully-close

I don''t disagree that the high takeout is not a cancer on horseracing in America, but that is not what is impinging this slow death on racing.

Racing has two major problems that will eventually kill it even if the take was zero.

They are of equal importance; and the first is a single private organization to oversee and regulate racing with a single set of tough, but fair rules that are the same in all racing jurisdictions.

In parallel, would be the development and introduction of 21st Century tools for handicapping and data acquisition.

I believe the potential bettor today is not interested and definitely not motivated by the antiquated methods of handicapping and acquiring data for the wagering on horseracing.

For example it took MLB over a 100 years to understand that the inning was was the wrong metric for determining work of a pitcher and along came Bill James with Sabermetrics and the pitch count along with other meaningful metrics were born.

The same can happen in horse racing; it is time for the "beaten length" be given its eulogy. This is a time-distance sport and the tools are here and ready for implementation.

Don 't stand back and say it is too "costly" because that is the same argument the automakers used when they were asked to make safer fuel-efficient cars which they could do, but wouldn't. However when they were forced too, they became technological efficient and coupled with the multiplier effect they haven't looked back.

Horseracing can do the same and using technology with the multiplier effect would allow the take to be significantly reduced; and national unification with tough but fair regulations would create growth in both attendance and revenues because if there is one thing we Americans like; it is gambling

[Some_One]

Originally Posted by Cratos

I don''t disagree that the high takeout is not a cancer on horseracing in America, but that is not what is impinging this slow death on racing.

Racing has two major problems that will eventually kill it even if the take was zero.

They are of equal importance; and the first is a single private organization to oversee and regulate racing with a single set of tough, but fair rules that are the same in all racing jurisdictions.

In parallel, would be the development and introduction of 21st Century tools for handicapping and data acquisition.

I believe the potential bettor today is not interested and definitely not motivated by the antiquated methods of handicapping and acquiring data for the wagering on horseracing.

For example it took MLB over a 100 years to understand that the inning was was the wrong metric for determining work of a pitcher and along came Bill James with Sabermetrics and the pitch count along with other meaningful metrics were born.

The same can happen in horse racing; it is time for the "beaten length" be given its eulogy. This is a time-distance sport and the tools are here and ready for implementation.

Don 't stand back and say it is too "costly" because that is the same argument the automakers used when they were asked to make safer fuel-efficient cars which they could do, but wouldn't. However when they were forced too, they became technological efficient and coupled with the multiplier effect they haven't looked back.

Horseracing can do the same and using technology with the multiplier effect would allow the take to be significantly reduced; and national unification with tough but fair regulations would create growth in both attendance and revenues because if there is one thing we Americans like; it is gambling

BS, America has more data than their UK and Aussie counterparts, but on a per capita basis, handle in Aussieland is 30X larger per race then the US.

[tzipi]

Originally Posted by Cratos

I believe the potential bettor today is not interested and definitely not motivated by the antiquated methods of handicapping and acquiring data for the wagering on horseracing.

I will say I am from the younger crowd and in terms of acquiring data for investments, we will go through more hell than horse racing could ever provide. For us, it's not the data or antiquated methods. It's the sport itself and what's it become with drugs...... AND I love the sport! I grew up with it from my father.

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by Some_One

BS, America has more data than their UK and Aussie counterparts, but on a per capita basis, handle in Aussieland is 30X larger per race then the US.

First all you either misread or misunderstood my post because I never referred to the amount of data.

My reference was to data acquisition and I don't care if you are obtaining kilobytes or nanobytes the acquisition is important.

The current framework of the horse past performance is on a normalized. distance with virtual timing.

From the current data with the exception of Trakus there is no way to calculate the speed of the horse and without the horse's weight it will difficult to determine energy.

What I am driving at is that if you were given the physics of horseracing you might find it to be a different game.

Don't misunderstand me again because I also believe that drugs need to cleaned up in racing.

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by tzipi

I will say I am from the younger crowd and in terms of acquiring data for investments, we will go through more hell than horse racing could ever provide. For us, it's not the data or antiquated methods. It's the sport itself and what's it become with drugs...... AND I love the sport! I grew up with it from my father.

Just for the record I am a consulting engineer with a MBA and have worked in a variety of industries that use large volumes of data for product development and product introduction.
Now that we are pass our professional skills I will say to you also it is not the amount of data, but the structure and type of data.

[tzipi]

Originally Posted by Cratos

Just for the record I am a consulting engineer with a MBA and have worked in a variety of industries that use large volumes of data for product development and product introduction.
Now that we are pass our professional skills I will say to you also it is not the amount of data, but the structure and type of data.

Whoa, I never said what I did or my actual professional skills. Wasn't about that. I'm sure you're good with numbers and very capable. No doubt. All I said was, for the younger crowd it's not about data or anything. It's about the game itself and it's declining intergrity. It's why you see the young crowd out at Belmont on nice weekend summer days to have a little fun with their money and see the horses, but no where near a track or OTB during the summer weeks or colder months.

[tzipi]

It's a great game Cratos, I agree. But the game has been passed by so many other games, sports, and investment ventures, today. Whether it be technology, or websites, or real estate, etc. A poster started a thread about the game dying and I just gave my opinion. I used to go to the track a ton of times with friends and spend good money, but almost everyone has stopped. I just gave my reasons why. That's all. Our reason for stopping? Drug trainers who are allowed to come back time and time again, muddied and useless past performances with hidden "surprise claim" horses and "super trainers" and high takeout.

My initial post was just saying for one, they should've thrown out these drug trainers years ago and put their foot down and not make excuses for them. They ruined the game for a lot of people who started to get into it.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by Cratos

I don''t disagree that the high takeout is not a cancer on horseracing in America, but that is not what is impinging this slow death on racing.

Racing has two major problems that will eventually kill it even if the take was zero.

They are of equal importance; and the first is a single private organization to oversee and regulate racing with a single set of tough, but fair rules that are the same in all racing jurisdictions.

In parallel, would be the development and introduction of 21st Century tools for handicapping and data acquisition.

I believe the potential bettor today is not interested and definitely not motivated by the antiquated methods of handicapping and acquiring data for the wagering on horseracing.

For example it took MLB over a 100 years to understand that the inning was was the wrong metric for determining work of a pitcher and along came Bill James with Sabermetrics and the pitch count along with other meaningful metrics were born.

The same can happen in horse racing; it is time for the "beaten length" be given its eulogy. This is a time-distance sport and the tools are here and ready for implementation.

Don 't stand back and say it is too "costly" because that is the same argument the automakers used when they were asked to make safer fuel-efficient cars which they could do, but wouldn't. However when they were forced too, they became technological efficient and coupled with the multiplier effect they haven't looked back.

Horseracing can do the same and using technology with the multiplier effect would allow the take to be significantly reduced; and national unification with tough but fair regulations would create growth in both attendance and revenues because if there is one thing we Americans like; it is gambling

The problem with the single pvt organization theory is that it assumes that "horse racing" is sort of like a "league" when in reality, tracks and different track owners have nothing to do with each other for the most part. We THINK they have something to do with each other because they use equines as their main product, but in reality, most of these tracks are in the gambling business, they're not in the HORSE business. We want them to be in the horse business because we want all the tracks to essentially work together to cultivate a "Sport" but in reality, everyone is a separate entity that's really all about gambling....they just run horses because that's the only way their state would approve a "license" to conduct gambling. They would run ant races if they could, much less expensive.

[lamboguy]

its pretty hard to proclaim racing dead when a place like Oaklawn averages over 20,000 people a day showing up culminated by 67,000 for their derby, orKeenland drawing 25,000 and 40,000 for a big stakes day. Santa Anita has been getting 15,000 on regular weekends, Gulfstream averaged 20,000 on weekends this year, while Tampa was over 10,000. there are big numbers that show up for simulcast in New Jersey and Pennsylvania.

[Robert Fischer]

Racing is what it is.

The 'limiting factor' is their use of the media. They either do not see and understand the system, or there are forces that provide disincentive to use the media properly and then grow accordingly.

You always hear about it being 'almost dead'. We have a great year so far, for what it is.

[lamboguy]

there certainly are some problems to work out. one of the biggest ones is what i see with Monmouth Park. they happen to put out a great product, that draws plenty of people to the track yet loses close to $4 million a year and happens to make up their live product loss with more than that from their imported signals. but still if you take away simulcasting revenues they would be dead and gone.

the same must happen in other places and i doubt if they are as successful as Monmouth is.

basically what i am trying to say is that instead of focusing in on live racing, most places want to generate revenues from imported simulcast signal's. that business model helps the speed the decline in American racing.