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12-21-2023, 08:21 AM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2023
Posts: 49
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Riskiest horse bets in general?
I personally think the riskiest horse bet is the one where you choose five horses in the exact order. The Pick 5 . It's a really big payout if you win, but extremely hard to play. And I thought the Superfecta was hard, this one is even much harder.
Last edited by Horsery; 12-21-2023 at 08:27 AM.
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12-21-2023, 12:11 PM
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#2
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Join Date: Aug 2016
Location: Fergus,ON
Posts: 3,729
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Personally, for me, the "riskiest" bets would be the ones where I would "blindly" make a bet. I have fallen victim for this multiple times in my lifetime. And have stopped a while back from doing this.
What I mean by that is I would be betting solely on no handicapping at all. I have only done this a few times, but it's risky because you are not giving yourself an edge on cashing in that wager, and also, no research has been done to back up this bet you are about to make.
I mean, yes, there are people for using the tote board or just looking at the names etc. and good for you if you are successful doing that, but I feel like it would be dangerous for the rest of us to bet "blindly."
Just my 2 cents.
__________________
Handicapping the world year round'
-Conley
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12-21-2023, 12:17 PM
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#3
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Join Date: Aug 2016
Location: Fergus,ON
Posts: 3,729
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I have witnessed older guys at my local racetrack (Grand River) bet "blindly" before.
There is one guy in particular, I don't know his name, but he is a "regular" there each time I would go over to the lounge. Nice guy and all, but he is very risky at what he does.
There have been multiple times where he would walk in for the first time, and then run over to the ABM, and punch in a wager for a race that was going to go off at whatever racetrack that was.
The majority of the day would go on like that, and tickets would pile up, along with the beer bottles, but, there will always be that one race that he has bet "blindly", and would hit for like $200+, which would make up for all his losing wagers.
I asked him the one time, "How do you do that?" and he said back "It's all in the odds, just look at the tote board and pick out your horses, they will come through for you soon enough". He just said this after hitting a $800 exacta at Aqueduct.
The point is, keep doing what you are doing if it is working. I just couldn't do what my friend does at Grand River each day.
__________________
Handicapping the world year round'
-Conley
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12-21-2023, 03:33 PM
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#4
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Out-of-town Jasper
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 2,364
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I knew a guy who, not only was he betting blindly, but one day it wasn't until after the sixth race he figured out he was betting South American races, not Gulfstream Park.
__________________
“If you want to outwit the devil, it is extremely important that you don't give him advanced notice."
~Alan Watts
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12-21-2023, 03:58 PM
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#5
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Join Date: Aug 2016
Location: Fergus,ON
Posts: 3,729
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Quote:
Originally Posted by therussmeister
I knew a guy who, not only was he betting blindly, but one day it wasn't until after the sixth race he figured out he was betting South American races, not Gulfstream Park.
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¡Oh Señor! Eso apesta!
__________________
Handicapping the world year round'
-Conley
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12-21-2023, 05:38 PM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2023
Posts: 3
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Over 50% of the bettors at my local OTB wager but do not purchase nor use programs...
Remember...these are some of the people whom you are betting against...and help create the odds.
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12-21-2023, 05:49 PM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2019
Posts: 4,017
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheRealPLM
Over 50% of the bettors at my local OTB wager but do not purchase nor use programs...
Remember...these are some of the people whom you are betting against...and help create the odds.
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That doesnt mean they are not getting info from another source. When Im at the track I use TVG on my phone instead of looking at a program.
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12-21-2023, 05:58 PM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: NJ
Posts: 3,822
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheRealPLM
Over 50% of the bettors at my local OTB wager but do not purchase nor use programs...
Remember...these are some of the people whom you are betting against...and help create the odds.
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If we could only get the organizations betting the vast majority of the handle to do the same, we'd be in good shape.
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12-21-2023, 07:33 PM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 4,285
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheRealPLM
Over 50% of the bettors at my local OTB wager but do not purchase nor use programs...
Remember...these are some of the people whom you are betting against...and help create the odds.
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But their chances of betting an overlay are probably the same as someone using programs and handicapping each race.
__________________
Best writing advice ever received: Never use a long word when a diminutive one will suffice.
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12-21-2023, 07:46 PM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2023
Posts: 26
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I'm thinking the sushi at Ruidoso Downs is riskiest.
Not a bet I'd make.
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12-21-2023, 08:05 PM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2012
Posts: 1,544
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Quote:
Originally Posted by IamNewt
I'm thinking the sushi at Ruidoso Downs is riskiest.
Not a bet I'd make.
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I heard they keep it on the menu just in case you can't get any runs out of your horses.
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12-21-2023, 08:44 PM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2021
Posts: 2,106
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Horsery
I personally think the riskiest horse bet is the one where you choose five horses in the exact order. The Pick 5 . It's a really big payout if you win, but extremely hard to play. And I thought the Superfecta was hard, this one is even much harder.
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Have only known it as the Super Hi-5. And usually with a carryover. Likely a couple going on almost any day in the US.
It is a terrible wager. Arguably the worst on the board. They have it at Santa Anita/CA circuit and the pools are ridiculously small. You'll see time and time again where the Super pays better than the Super Hi-5. Sometimes even Trifectas have paid more.
I don't know a single person who has ever bet into that pool.
Super wagers can have amazing pools, and 5 and even 6 figure payouts at large tracks with big fields.
I'd be amazed if there is more than a handful of people on here who have even wagered into the Super Hi-5 pool. Ever.
Last edited by PalaceOfFortLarned; 12-21-2023 at 08:46 PM.
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12-22-2023, 09:26 AM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2020
Location: Unfortunately, California
Posts: 17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by therussmeister
I knew a guy who, not only was he betting blindly, but one day it wasn't until after the sixth race he figured out he was betting South American races, not Gulfstream Park.
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LMAO!
A risky wager is any wager where your odds are not locked in.
For example, you wager on a horse, thinking she is a good value at 12-1, and then she goes down to 3-1 during the race.
I know this sounds dumb, but imo, at 12-1, she is a small Risk.
At 3-1, a bad Risk.
At Beautiful Ascot, you can avoid many Risks.
Vince P
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12-28-2023, 06:00 AM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2015
Posts: 1,962
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My vote for riskiest bets are the horizontals. With the exception of the daily double, you don't get any tote or physical appearance clues. Pick 3s, pick 4s, pick 5s and pick 6's, twin tris, etc - are all just wagers that grind the recreational player's bankroll to dust.
There was a time back in the late 1980s to mid 1990s I loved playing the pick 3s from California, but the computer players really brought down the payoffs of the longer combinations. Now I rarely play horizontals, in spite of the lure of online contests in pick&pray format or the larger pools. Just too many unknowns.
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01-06-2024, 06:44 PM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 7,510
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Parkview_Pirate
My vote for riskiest bets are the horizontals. With the exception of the daily double, you don't get any tote or physical appearance clues. Pick 3s, pick 4s, pick 5s and pick 6's, twin tris, etc - are all just wagers that grind the recreational player's bankroll to dust.
There was a time back in the late 1980s to mid 1990s I loved playing the pick 3s from California, but the computer players really brought down the payoffs of the longer combinations. Now I rarely play horizontals, in spite of the lure of online contests in pick&pray format or the larger pools. Just too many unknowns.
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Well....The wife and I take two trips from our home in NC to Keeneland. Typical semi chalky day, I hit 5 of the 9 races I played and barely turned a profit.
I had winners in 7 of the 9 races I played but only hit 4 of the 9 exactas I played and two of the several trifecta wagers...Now, I looked over the program at the hotel room and had an "ah ha" moment. Had I played the two pick 4s using the SAME horses I had played on top of the vertical wagers, I'd have hit one of the P4's and at least 3 P3's....Add those in, I'd have had a good day's profit. Yes, I did have the budget for the additional wagers.
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