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Old 03-02-2019, 06:56 AM   #1
Lemon Drop Husker
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R14 Gulfstream Park G2 Mac Diarmida Stakes

We finally get another great card in 2019 via Gulfstream Park. A bit overshadowed by the all important Fountain of Youth, the 14th race isn't a snoozer.

Golden Dragon: Quite a bit in over his head and the connections have no problem sticking this guy where he doesn't belong. In his last 8 races he has gone off at 34/1 or greater in 7 of them, including 104/1 or better in 3 of his last 4. This shouldn't be any different. At least the connections will have a nice seat for the previous 13 races today.

Village King: Former Argentinian star hasn't embarrassed himself in the States. 12 panels was too much for him last out, so I'm not sure that 11 is his preferred trip.

Melmich: The wiley ol' Woodbine veteran has racked up quite a career north of the border on the fake stuff. Was chalk in his prep for this one at 8 1/2 furlongs while getting beat at this venue. That simply wasn't long enough for this guy. A very interesting entry at what should be some long odds. Contender at a price.

Hunter O'Riley: Distance is never a problem with this guy, but recency certainly is. Has only raced twice since November of 2017 and those are apart by nearly calendar years. This will be his 2nd start in 45 days for the first time in a long time. Has ran against better than what he'll face today, but this is tough one to pull the trigger on for the top spot.

Vettori Kin: Another former Argentinian/Brazilian entry with some crazy breeding lines. If the pace becomes a crawl and a simple sprint to the finish, he can't be dismissed. Interesting.

Zulu Alpha: Maybe the one to beat coming in off a victory on yielding turf in his G3 win at this very track. Maker and Irad are as good as any in this field, and his 12 for 18 board hitting style on the green stuff is appetizing. Maybe not the price you want, but winning 4 of his last 6 amid solid company is hard to ignore.

The Best Candy: 0 for 4 on the turf and prepped for this one by going 8 panels on the dirt at Tampa amid OC $16K company. A pick 3 on Keno using your birthdate looks like a better option.

Highland Sky: This is simply a bad ML of 9/2. Sure, his Thorograph and Sheets numbers look great, but this guy has 2 wins in his last 13 and no other Exacta finishes. While he has ran against solid company his last 3, the has spanked him in each of those efforts and he hasn't raced since September. Gotta let this one beat me.

Kulin Rock: Maker is full in on the Ortiz brothers with this entry, and he isn't without a chance. Yes, this is a massive step up in class, and yes, he has a lone victory in 12 starts. Maybe not a winner, but definitely an exotics booster that could relish the added distance.

Montclair: Claimed just 2 back for $16K, this is yet another odd entry. Dead chalk in 5 of his last 6, maybe he needs the competition to really get him going? He has won 5 of his last 9, but at 9YO this might not be the most opportune time to take a shot with this old war horse.

Channel Maker: The most accomplished horse in the field has over $1.5 million in career earnings. He has been competitive on the front, middle, and from well back in the pack. Gets back to a firm turf course which should be to his liking, but he is 0 for 3 at Gulf, with 0 board finishes. The one to beat if he is ready to run, but also one you likely want to bet against.

SUMMARY: Good betting race to end a great betting card. I keep coming back to the Vettori Ken for some reason, and that grouping.

Last edited by Lemon Drop Husker; 03-02-2019 at 06:58 AM.
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Old 03-02-2019, 10:51 AM   #2
Immortal6
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The Melmich looks like he could be a player underneath. The Distance should be a non factor. Horse looks to have the ability to sit off the pace a still have a potent closing kick. Only thing that gives me pause, why has the trainer only ran him on turf twice in 43 races?

is a bit of a wildcard like you said. A throwback performance to some of his best races could trounce this field but recent form suggest closing into a slow pace for 3rd might be his upside.

I’ll have to let your beat me. Last time the horse came off a long layoff for McPeek it couldn’t beat non graded stakes company. I’ve got a soft spot for the jock right now but I don’t think he’ll have enough horse today.

Zulu Alpha has recent form, Irad/Maker, ability to dictate pace if he so chooses, and cuts back a furlong from his last race. Nothing not to like here. Tried to beat him by keying him underneath in his last race. Won’t make that mistake again.

Highland Sky shows some good works off the lay-off. Consistently beaten by a few lengths by the in his last 3 races. Manny Franco ships in as well to retain the mount.

Everything on paper to me says toss this horse...major class hike, first time stretching out to a distance like this, breeding to me doesn’t look like it will love this distance. But Jose taking the mount for Maker is enough for me to include in 3rd.

lots of wins in last 10 starts but a big class hike today. Decent record at GP and 1 second in 2 tries at the distance. With a slower pace should factor in late for 3rd/4th at a price.

a horse I like, but have to bet against in the win spot. 9 G1’s in last 10 starts. Not sure I love Rosario on the horse. 0-3 itm at GP is worrisome as well. Horse is just too good to toss from a tri.

So that brings me to //

Might do a ex key box with and a small win bet on as odds dictate.
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Old 03-02-2019, 11:47 AM   #3
Robert Fischer
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Betting against the here.

I had him as a bet-back last time, and he won, but I thought it was a great ride. I would describe it, as "the eye of the storm". Lot going on around him, and he had a good spot and perfect patience and timing.
These are better horses and I'm guessing he doesn't get the same position.

Channel Maker is a good horse. I'm not sure the price will be so great. Sounds silly, but if Hidden Scroll runs a big race, his price could be even lower with the public on a Bill Mott high...

other than , I have to handicap more, and without wanting a multi, I haven't zeroed in on the race. If is taking a ton of $$ and is not, I'll come back to it.
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Old 03-02-2019, 12:02 PM   #4
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allright alright...

throw the in the mix. I don't know how accurate the 15/1 ml is, but he is about a 9/1 shot, and he's even more useful under gimmicks.
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Old 03-02-2019, 02:08 PM   #5
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As a Win player, some thoughts..

Before Nijinsky effort, he had run ok. Might factor in as a closer

Decent win last out, probably my 2nd fave choice

Could come off the pace to win, but I actually think I like the 5 more

My fave for the win, although I dont know about 9/5?


I could see myself going to the if the really comes down in odds.
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Old 03-02-2019, 02:46 PM   #6
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I'm playing in one of the "Pick and Pray" tourneys today. Here are my picks for the races we have to bet:

GP 8 - #5
TAM 6 - #1
AQU 6 - #4
TAM 7 - #3
GP 10 - #6
TAM 8 - #3
GP 11 - #8
GP 12 - #6
AQU 9 - #9
TAM 10 - #7
GP 13 - #4
GP 14 - #11
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Old 03-02-2019, 02:58 PM   #7
Lemon Drop Husker
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HalvOnHorseracing View Post
I'm playing in one of the "Pick and Pray" tourneys today. Here are my picks for the races we have to bet:

GP 8 - #5
TAM 6 - #1
AQU 6 - #4
TAM 7 - #3
GP 10 - #6
TAM 8 - #3
GP 11 - #8
GP 12 - #6
AQU 9 - #9
TAM 10 - #7
GP 13 - #4
GP 14 - #11

You're playing for 2nd Halvy.
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Old 03-02-2019, 04:08 PM   #8
HalvOnHorseracing
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker View Post
You're playing for 2nd Halvy.
More likely I'm playing for 112th
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Old 03-02-2019, 04:24 PM   #9
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I hit the max pay in the AQU 6th. In the real world it paid $76.50. I'm currently 50th out of a little over 1,800
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Old 03-02-2019, 04:39 PM   #10
Lemon Drop Husker
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HalvOnHorseracing View Post
I hit the max pay in the AQU 6th. In the real world it paid $76.50. I'm currently 50th out of a little over 1,800



T29
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Old 03-02-2019, 06:03 PM   #11
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$2 Ex




, / , , , , = $16
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Old 03-02-2019, 06:10 PM   #12
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Zulu for me.
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Old 03-02-2019, 06:13 PM   #13
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Got the 3, 8, and 11 alive in the DDs
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Old 03-02-2019, 06:21 PM   #14
Lemon Drop Husker
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Zulu for me.

En Fuego.
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Old 03-02-2019, 06:23 PM   #15
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That probably made for a large carry-over.
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