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Old 07-07-2018, 03:11 PM   #1
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The software I have been using to post 641 (and counting) profitable plays in VIP

I've posted, currently, 646 PROFITABLE win bets in the VIP forum...all before the race.

In fact, I started today by hitting the 25-1 opening winner at GP. Again, posted before the race in the VIP section.

For the past oh, month and a half I have been deep in the weeds with a program I have used at least twice before but gave up on early-on both times, and I'll tell you why in a moment.

But this third time (which might be the charm?), I absolutely devoted myself to this piece of software. We're talking weeks of staying up until all hours of the morning learning the program, doing research with the program, just being a general degenerate nutcase with it.

My goal with the software was to use it to FIT what *I* was currently trying to achieve. And that is, find a way to bet value WITHOUT having to use the tote board, conditional wagering, or betting on horses and watching their odds get cut in half after the race started.

Well, HORSE STREET HANDICAPPER (HSH) by our very own Dave Schwartz has done that so far, and done it quite well. The results sort of speak for themselves.

The key here is that I am using the program in a way Dave Schwartz himself probably hasn't thought of or talked about. That's the genius behind the program. You can use it in any NUMBER of ways. And that's probably it's biggest problem when it comes to a newbie just getting started with this tool.

It is a tad overwhelming. And because of that, it isn't as documented as well as it should be. But then again, it's kind of impossible to document it well because it offers so many possibilities.

Dave has tons of videos available to explain certain aspects of the program, and he is amazingly generous with his time when you are learning. He puts on weekly meetings to teach the major components, but it's really up to you to utilize the program in a way that suits your style, and that's the beauty of the program. It's very flexible. I probably don't use a good chunk of its capabilities. And that's fine. That's what makes it great in my opinion. You're not locked into any one methodology. You can use it to fit YOUR current style or goals.

But be warned. The majority of you who attempt to use this program will probably abandon it within a week or two of trying to figure it out, as I did...TWICE.

BUT, if you're serious...if you devote yourself to learning how this amazing tool can help you in today's environment, it's worth its weight in gold and then some.
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Old 07-07-2018, 03:30 PM   #2
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And I just hit that 25-1 winner at Parx in the 4th.

Again, posted before the race in VIP.
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Old 07-07-2018, 04:36 PM   #3
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Congrats. You should add a review of HSH on Dave's website. I see an old friend of ours, PKTRUCKDRIVER , has a long time ago given a great review to the product.
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Old 07-07-2018, 04:51 PM   #4
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Good to hear!

I have been a "fanboy" of Dave's for decades, back to his Partimes subscription on the sage advice by none other than Tom Brohamer. I think his exact words were "You will not be disappointed in how good Dave's stuff is."

He was right.
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Old 07-07-2018, 04:52 PM   #5
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I have to say that I didn't expect you to develop something this good, this fast, PA.

While I did spend an hour or two with Mike, he did all of this on his own and deserves all the credit. Congratulations!
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Old 07-07-2018, 05:05 PM   #6
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689 profitable picks...500 under my prior run....189 under my current run

And they aren't the same "method"...this current 189 play run is only in its third day of experimentation...and it's not 189 races...it's 65 over three days thus far, but I'm betting 3 horses a race to win.

Go figure.
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Old 07-07-2018, 10:56 PM   #7
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I was one of them I tried on paper, worked great, and then played and did nothing. Tried it a second time same thing, same thing happened. I agree, there is so much this program can do and so many ways to do it. It is just way over my head and my computer skill. But a great program.
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Old 07-07-2018, 11:26 PM   #8
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Quote:
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I was one of them I tried on paper, worked great, and then played and did nothing. Tried it a second time same thing, same thing happened. I agree, there is so much this program can do and so many ways to do it. It is just way over my head and my computer skill. But a great program.
We're putting out an upgrade within the next month. It will come with a bunch of out-of-the-box systems. (We don't charge for upgrades.)

Since you already purchased the software, why don't you give it a try again?

Lots of other new improvements coming this summer.


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Old 07-18-2018, 12:25 AM   #9
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Mike, is your longshot method still working?
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Old 07-18-2018, 12:44 AM   #10
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I haven't gone back to the method I used for the last 500. I ventured off into other territory, hoping to improve upon it...sadly, that hasn't happened.

The 289 profitable picks that occured after the last 500 were using an altered method, and that started to peter out after 300+ races. And I was betting 3 horses a race. It surprised me it was profitable for almost 300 races.
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Old 07-18-2018, 11:53 AM   #11
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I haven't gone back to the method I used for the last 500. I ventured off into other territory, hoping to improve upon it...sadly, that hasn't happened.

The 289 profitable picks that occured after the last 500 were using an altered method, and that started to peter out after 300+ races. And I was betting 3 horses a race. It surprised me it was profitable for almost 300 races.
So its profitable...why change then?

Some people would die for something like that...

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Old 07-18-2018, 11:54 AM   #12
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I didn't change. I was looking to improve.

11% winners isn't actually something to get all that excited about.

The long losing streaks tend to get disheartening.

I didn't say I abandoned it...far from it...it's now a cornerstone that I am trying to make better.
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Old 07-18-2018, 11:58 AM   #13
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I didn't change. I was looking to improve.

11% winners isn't actually something to get all that excited about.

The long losing streaks tend to get disheartening.

I didn't say I abandoned it...far from it...it's now a cornerstone that I am trying to make better.
Good luck PA....

From my experience, yes % might go up but prices go down...

Mike
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Old 07-19-2018, 01:28 AM   #14
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I developed a method with a hit rate similar to yours, with similar results. I would have had many more plays because in many of the races I chose, there existed 3 overlays. But when I excluded any RACES with 3 overlays (2 overlays or less was my new rule) I turned a profit. When I included 3 overlays, I lost my profit. If your records indicate more profit with less plays...would that help?

Just adding, probably worthless advice, because everyone's comfort level is so different. I treated the whole endeavor like I would a index fund, similar to what Joel Greenblatt suggests, which produced only about 30 plays a YEAR. Kind of like a fund you let go for about 5-10 years, before you expect to extract any profit.
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Old 07-19-2018, 01:48 AM   #15
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Hi crestridge,

I keep bouncing from more plays to fewer plays. Trying to find a way to isolate races that have a high tendency to produce a longshot winner has been difficult.

I think the true key lies in trying to identify these types of races before even handicapping the race itself. The other half of me says handicap the race and that should tell you the story.

I'm still in the beginning stages of all of this. But I like this sort of stuff, so it's ok.
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