*Handicapping Methods-Spot Play Testing-Software Etc

[upthecreek]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

Actually only had the winner...tried to crush it with the tri and wiffed on that.

Fooling around with a show parlay 8th COMMANCHE RULER to
9th MATTERS TO ME. Wonder why no one offers show parlays like that?
Before ya say they do--it's called THE LATE DOUBLE...I don't want to play them to win.

It was there to play I'm counting it LOL

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by upthecreek

It was there to play I'm counting it LOL

LOL...I got greedy

[NorCalGreg]

....and thus ends my show parlay career

[NorCalGreg]

Gotten a few questions about the greatest maiden method of all time--so gonna go ahead and lay it out here. Just the bare bones rules. I did put it together with examples, some of my usual delightful commentary, but you'll have to go to my website for that. It's in a zip download--you can file it away if you like. If not....do whatever the hell ya want.

The reason it's the greatest maiden method of all time....it wins.
If it didn't...I wouldn't lawfully be allowed to call it the greatest maiden method of all time, now would I?

-MAIDEN TWO-TIMER- by NorCalGreg
For many trainers- a maiden's 1st start is merely a training excercise.

Even the great American Pharoah ran 5th in his debut race @ Del Mar-- Maidens, on avg...improve 5 to 15 Speed Rating Points in their second start.

What we want to see in our maiden's only start is some sign of better things to come in start #2 today.....such as:

*Contender showed brief speed--subtle gain, even running pattern, etc--something interesting in 1st race

*Look for a horse showing positive changes today (Lasix, J-Switch, Class-drop, Blinks added)--NEVER a class raise

*Fast workouts SINCE 1st race...last w/o within 14 days

*Trainer shows high Win%, ITM, $ROI, etc -with today's situation

*Also your call--but I prefer 10-1ML or better.

--Like I mentioned....examples are on my website...help yourself..if you can't win with this method---perhaps replays and abusing jockeys is more your forte

One other thing...since it seems we now have TWO DRF employees on the board here.....this is only part of AP's chart of his first race @ DM...so nobody call the honchos @ DRF and get me in trouble for posting this:

[NorCalGreg]

Christmas 2016 gone for good. George Michael gone. Honestly, if it's not too disrespectful to say it-- I would have thought Boy George would be the first to go, of the two.

There was an obligatory list of 80's stars who've passed away already--I noticed there was no mention of Michael Jackson. Strange. I didn't know Laura Branigan, who sang "Gloria" along with several other hits then, had also died young. Always liked that song--somehow missed that news.

Interesting the list I looked at--the mention of Frank Zappa..all it said was:

FRANK ZAPPA--co-authored the 80s hit "Valley Girl"

If Michael Jackson even WAS mentioned probably would have said:

MICHAEL JACKSON--co-starred with Nipsy Russell in "The Wiz"

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

So I mentioned I'm looking for a show parlay play--scanning and researching....mostly my PRN methods trying to find something solid.
A horse that was less than 3-1 twice....and hit the board twice--in his last 3 races--looks promising so far but I don't know--has to be a class requirement---that's where I'm at now.

Anyway you all know the two newest Pace View programs will have the regular PP's we've always had---PLUS some Steve came up with--QUICK PP'S . You can see all the horses entered in a race at once--last few races---just a snapshot of pp's.

So I'm looking at Delta 12/08 3rd race...mainly checking odds, class drops, last couple races...and I see a MD race and notice a chartmaker's comments for a horse. I personally don't ever consider any MD that has ever dipped much lower than today's purse value--just toss it---they win so rarely it's just not worth it to consider.

EVEN EFFORT followed by STEADY FADE ...exactly what I look for in prep races. Without even looking at the "full" pp's I had to go and look at the results for that day and race, I was curious--first I'll post up the quick pp--you can see what I noticed:

[NorCalGreg]

I won't keep you in suspense I wouldn't mention it if he didn't win of course

[NorCalGreg]

I know the "special" plays wiffed big-time the other day, but can't just give up on them. Ya miss out when they connect.

Two LONE SPEED going:

FGX 3RD DREAMING OF JOEY 8-1 (I know this horse has been up here before)

PARX 5TH NEXT RIGHT 15-1


Also a 1-92 play--as you remember is the same as an early/late but better--trust me on that

SAX 4TH DARK ENERGY 12-1

[NorCalGreg]

Just thought I would see if I have the time to get a "no handicapping" demo going again. It doesn't take much time since there isn't any handicapping LOL.

Last time it went over a hundred straight plays with a profit---I can't remember the exact wayI did it, but it was with no handicapping...just pace view.
I'll post up when I can:

[NorCalGreg]

Let me see if I can extend my Maiden streak today

Santa Anita 3rd Race A. P. ZONA 12-1 ML 7F DIRT MD SP WT 2YO

This horse just has the look of a horse that's gonna get ignored at the windows...especially when you have LAW ABIDIN CITIZEN 8-1 showing 1/120 and 3/53 works---no way is that horse gonna get 8-1. Others will attract some ducats as well, making this a crapshoot. 'ZONA, as I see it--has just as good a shot as anyone at a square price--sign me up-----NCG

[NorCalGreg]

Okay....it's officially cold now--got one of those indoor/outdoor thermometers, right now outside it's 39 below (40) LOL...that's right 39 is below 40.

EXOTIC still not quite ready to go--haven't heard from my chief engineer, IT tech, data guy, Isosceles Quotient Defibrillator maintenance man either, so in a holding pattern for a few days. Also Steve the programmer has suddenly gone quiet.

Getting back to reality....EXOTIC can be used for a tool for contender selection.

The races @ Santa Anita yesterday--those hoity-toity stakes races that I don't really know my way around--well that is why I came up with the ABILITY RATING as most of you know. No one else has this--nobody. Exotic gives you 3 contenders per race ---sorted 4 different ways. Often you'll see the same horses popup as contenders in different modes. Here's the last 5 Races @ Santa Anita--would this have been a help--to have 3 contenders selected for you per race?

[NorCalGreg]

Only had a chance to look at a few races at Parx so far--

4th Race Miss Kalem didn't appear to make a huge effort last--but anywhere near the 3-1 ML today who cares?

5th Race AWESOME SINGER 8-1 something up with this one--maybe the owner/trainer is just tired of paying bills with no winner checks.. and might have an eye to the windows---that's how my devious jaded mind works.

What do you see? LOL now I got that Justin Beiber song running through my head. haha that's not even the name of it ---anyway be back at some point.

The EXOTIC is running a little behind---I did speak with Steve this AM.

I did get a nice little banner ad to go here made up

[Bennie]

greg - I had already played Awesome Singer before you posted. Thought he outclasses the field and the 8-1 ML was too good to pass up. might not get that now that others are privy to your talents but Tuesday is always a slow day and not much else happening. Good luck.

[upthecreek]

Originally Posted by Bennie

greg - I had already played Awesome Singer before you posted. Thought he outclasses the field and the 8-1 ML was too good to pass up. might not get that now that others are privy to your talents but Tuesday is always a slow day and not much else happening. Good luck.

You're right 4/5! Wow Got hammered

[Bennie]

Typical, I play 2 horses today. Hit 1 of 2 and lose money.

[acorn54]

Originally Posted by Bennie

greg - I had already played Awesome Singer before you posted. Thought he outclasses the field and the 8-1 ML was too good to pass up. might not get that now that others are privy to your talents but Tuesday is always a slow day and not much else happening. Good luck.

horsebettors today are no fools if you think you're smarter, forget it. tons of underemployed and others looking for some extra money, with few opportunities, especially for the 50 and over crowd.
everybody is on their computer analyzing the heck out of each and every horse.