Parked out horses

[Stick]

I use an evaluation of parked out horses I that I read about two years ago by either the Clocker or Estimator on their site. I hope there is no offense taken to posting it here. I'm looking for a horse that is parked out 1st,2nd, or 3rd at the quarter or the half. If parked at the 1st Q the horse must maintain that position at the half. If parked at the half, the horse must maintain that position at the 3rd Q. Lengths are unimportant. For example: parked out 1,2,3 at 1st quarter, must be 1,2,3 at halfarked out 2nd at half, must be 1,2 at 3rd quarter. The horse does not have to be parked out in the subsequent call, but position must be maintained. The next part is my own rule which helps me throw out the weaker horses that qualify. The horse must finish 1st or 2nd in that parked out race or 1st in his second start back. This way we are getting a horse that raced parked out and still finished well, or a horse that got fried but shows the ability in the previous start. I use 5-1 as minimum acceptable odds. I use this at Balmoral where I checked over programs going back to the beginning of 2006 (Sat only) and there is about a 1.5 ROI covering about 160 races. I have not checked any other tracks. For those of you that have past programs, check out Westside Gritty in the 2nd on Sept 8th for an example of a winner paying $39.2.

[Charlie]

Stick..... let's assume a horse is parked out 2nd at the 1/4. It must be no worse than 2nd at the 1/2 and need not be parked out. Therefore; he is maintaining his position. Am I interpreting the conditions of your posting correctly? Thanks for sharing this concept.

[Stick]

Yes. If the horse is parked 1.2.3 at the 1st Q, he must maintain ( a gain is also good)his position. If he is parked at the half 1,2,3, check the 3rd Q to see if the horse maintained his position. These horses are getting used through at least two quarters. The one they were parked out at and the one they continued to maintain position at. Hope that clears it up.

[Big Bill]

Stick,

You say 1.5 ROI. Is that a return on investment of 150%? People show ROI in a number of different ways and I just wondered what you meant.

Big Bill

[the_fat_man]

There's a thoroughbred TURF version of the park out. It's called the JVS --Johnny Velazquez Special. Ole' Johnny (and the jocks emulating him) seems to think that going on your own, wide, WITHOUT COVER, when you could be sucking up behind some other horse, and being wide when you can save ground, is the way to go on the turf. Who am I to question this, as the man is one of the top jocks.

I just note the trips and bet them back next time out. Needless to say, this proves as fruitful with the tbreds (turf) as it does with the stbreds.

For a recent example: see today's winner of the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at KEE -- Bit of Whimsy.

[Stick]

At 5-1 or higher there were 171 plays. $342 for a $2 bet. $519.8 was the return . $519.8/ $342 =1.52 ROI. I used all the programs I had going back to the beginning of 2006 for Balmoral. These are almost all Sat. cards. I did not backfit. I just used 5-1 as a guide to see what the results would be. One thing I should mention is that I only considered a horse that raced parked out at Balmoral last time. Since Illinois has Maywood on Thur/Fri horses will have half mile lines last time out that I did not consider. Another method would be to look for parked out horses that raced in fast fractions relative to their class. Par times would be needed for that.

[andicap]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

There's a thoroughbred TURF version of the park out. It's called the JVS --Johnny Velazquez Special. Ole' Johnny (and the jocks emulating him) seems to think that going on your own, wide, WITHOUT COVER, when you could be sucking up behind some other horse, and being wide when you can save ground, is the way to go on the turf. Who am I to question this, as the man is one of the top jocks.

I just note the trips and bet them back next time out. Needless to say, this proves as fruitful with the tbreds (turf) as it does with the stbreds.

For a recent example: see today's winner of the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at KEE -- Bit of Whimsy.

I've long wondered about this -- so you find cover in going wide in turf races to be an important handicapping tool. I figured in cold weather it would be germane, but could never figure out whether it applied universally.
And do you find it's applicable on dirt races too?

[Stick]

Beach Dude in the 11th at Balmoral paid $48.2 using the parked out guidelines. Kings Road just missed at over 20-1 in the 10th. Hope some of you cashed.