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05-21-2011, 01:26 AM
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#1
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,796
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My Preakness Analysis (Even More Shameless Self Promotion)
Last edited by PaceAdvantage; 05-23-2011 at 04:40 AM.
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05-21-2011, 02:04 AM
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#2
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Just another Facist
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Now in Houston
Posts: 52,860
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looks like pretty good logic to me.
The only thing that bothers me is Flashpoint.
I think this guy could make for an interesting pace scenario. This horse could get away if he wants, and I mean get away. If he does that........anything can happen. I am not a Cornholio Velazguez on speed fan.......... who the hell knows what he is going to let happen......... Flashpoint has been working like a Demon possessed. If the track stays kind to speed ? He might uncork a big lead and stop like a dog in the stretch, then again he might go on ? This is going to be a jocks race if you ask me.
If the odds are high enough, I am going to have to throw a few bucks on and as live longshots. Gotta give Midnight Interlude one more chance, I think he got overwhelmed by that huge field in the Derby and hopefully can come back and run a decent race.
Otherwise, I think you have posted some solid logic.
Last edited by JustRalph; 05-21-2011 at 02:06 AM.
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05-21-2011, 03:47 AM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,818
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i am going to bet ANIMAL KINGDOM to win. and then box him with DIALED IN. ANIMAL KINGDOM should be better than in the prior race, and i am trusting ZITO with DIALED IN. if DIALED IN does not make a good account of himself, ZITO should hand in his trainer's license within 5 minutes after the race.
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05-21-2011, 03:57 AM
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#4
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Mike Schultz
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: North Carolina
Posts: 2,234
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lamboguy
i am going to bet ANIMAL KINGDOM to win. and then box him with DIALED IN. ANIMAL KINGDOM should be better than in the prior race, and i am trusting ZITO with DIALED IN. if DIALED IN does not make a good account of himself, ZITO should hand in his trainer's license within 5 minutes after the race.
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I believe Dialed In will have too much work to do trying to close on this heavily speed biased strip. I think the winner will be gate to wire!
Good luck today!
__________________
I attract money, I attract money...
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05-21-2011, 04:11 AM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Ringkoebing
Posts: 4,342
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After a slow Derby, and with so much quality pace in the race, I would be very surprised if the winner doesn't come from a little way back in the field.
I think Animal Kingdom is a sharp horse, probably even a superior horse, and the most likely thing that can get him beat are jockey tactics.
Dialed In has a chance, but the one button he has, needs to be pushed at the right time, and the jockey must hope he's not too far behind at that point.
Dance City ran an admirable Arkansas Derby and must be considered in the exotics as a First Dude kind of horse.
I'm also throwing in King Congie because he was bothered at the start but finished well in the Blue Grass; synthetic to dirt is not a bad angle during the Classic season.
1. Animal Kingdom
2. Dance City
3. King Congie
4. Dialed In
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05-21-2011, 06:26 AM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 684
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I'm sticking with KING CONGIE. AK went TURF to SYNTH to DIRT to win the Derby. KC has traveled the identical path & is the only entry coming directly off a synth race. Last year First Dude was going synth to dirt & ran a big one.
At 20-1 I believe he's in with a shot!
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05-21-2011, 07:12 AM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 67
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
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Actually not shameless self-promotion but some very insightful analysis. I was about to bail on Shack, but after reading that I'll have to, at the very least, throw in a saver on him, and an exacta with Dance City. Thanks for the effort, and for sharing it.
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05-21-2011, 08:27 AM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 410
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I like some of the new players in this:
Astrology - has good post position, is fresh, has competitive sheet numbers and is trained by one of the best.
Sway Away - had a much improved effort in the Ark Derby. He's very competitive here.
Mucho Macho Man - I think he's the best horse coming out of Louisville. A very consistent horse on the Rag Sheets.
Animal Kingdom - His real chances in here are about 6/1. A big jump up performance in the Derby, but in my opinion has more to prove in order to be king of the jungle.
Dance City - An improving horse from the Pletcher barn. Could improve to take this.
Good Luck to all connections and players. This promises be an interesting race.
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05-21-2011, 08:29 AM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: Connecticut
Posts: 239
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I like 11-5-4 with the 3-9. I'll bet to win on whoever has value of the 11-5-4 and then a few exactas & tri's adding the 3-9.
Example--$1-exacta 11-5-4/3-9 and then 3-9/11-5-4.
GOOD LUCK TO ALL.
Mike--good analysis.
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05-21-2011, 08:52 AM
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#10
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Frontrunner
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Pasadena, CA
Posts: 2,797
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My two cents:
Animal Kingdom's going to be tough. I think he wins, with the predictable Derby returnees (MMM, Dialed In) close behind him. However, there are two potential party-crashers who I wouldn't throw off deep exotics tickets.
Flashpoint's Hutcheson was very, VERY good. Likewise, his FLA Derby, where he bounced, was very, VERY mediocre. Wesley Ward connects with 29% of new arrivals, and I think he's well-meant at a 20-1 ML price (steep for one of just five graded-stakes winners in the field).
Concealed Identity looks a lot like Icabad Crane did a few years ago. On pure talent, he's a cut below the rest, but he loves this surface and has the right running style to do well. He's a right-place, right-time horse who gets a pilot that knows his way around Pimlico, and if he can overcome the post, 30-1 looks like a big overlay.
__________________
Aspiring turf writer and handicapper. Follow me on Twitter at @AndrewChampagne!
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05-21-2011, 08:55 AM
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#11
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Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: Mississippi
Posts: 2,277
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I agree with your analysis, especially on Shackelford. I wasn't impressed at first, until I looked at his front running splits in the Derby.
start to 2f...23.24 official
2f to 4f ...25.39 official
4f to 6f ...24.77 official
6f to 8f ...24.09 official
8f to 10f ...25.30 unofficial (my timing) beaten by apprx. 3.75 lgths.
If you watch the replay, he didn't lose the lead until after he had run 1m 3/16. Meanwhile his largest lead was 1 1/2 lgths between 2f-4f . He had pressure on his flanks the entire trip. All this was on track favoring closers.
Question ? Today will be his 5th race after a layoff. Is he due to bounce? If so, I look for the next best (fresh) speed horse to steal the race. (JMHO)
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05-21-2011, 09:43 AM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: California
Posts: 1,225
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
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Shackelford is a definite contender. You'll get +10-1. I'll include Shackelford and Mucho in a tri box. But I don't think Animal has any value; I don't believe the derby was prep quality. I'll include Flashpoint to up the tri value play.
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05-21-2011, 09:46 AM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 2,167
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I'm going to play that, plus 29 other of my useless 10 centers. I have this feeling about Shackelford and Sway Away. Dance City looks like a little pistol with his long forelock.
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05-21-2011, 09:48 AM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 10
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seems like a lock that Mucho Macho Man will win this race after the real life Macho Man Randy Savage has passed away...Go MACHO....OH YEEEAAAAA!
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05-21-2011, 09:56 AM
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#15
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C'est Tout
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Cajunland
Posts: 13,291
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I loved Shack in the Derby, but i think he duels and fades here to finish out of the top 3. Just can't see him taking care of Flashpoint and possibly a few other in close attendance, and then holding Animal Kingdom, Dialed In and the other late runners.
He had better be one sharp colt.
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