HANDICAPPING FACTORS

[rosenowsr]

Jimmy Who??? lol

[jay68802]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

You say you look at the PP's....theres the issue .... judgement....every one is different....

With everything I dealt with in my life....the "judgement" gets me ALL THE TIME

I say most can get it down to 3 or 4 horses .......betting how is a tough task...

mike

And judgement wins and loses here. Did not bet the race, did not like it, that's the win. The loss is that the computer saw a high odds horse, and the handicapper did not. Rated #1 in R2, R3, and R4.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Nitro

PARX – Tues 9/24

Race # 5 – 7-1 W/ 11-4-2 @ 5 mins to post

Jay Thanks for pointing out that race! A real test for the tote analysis to point out those contenders!

Results:

Race # 5 = 4-1-11-3 – EX & TRI BX – KABOOM!

POS	#	Horse	       Win	Place	Show
1st:	4	Jimmy Who     $52.60	$15.00	$8.00
2nd:	1	Awe Mun		         $5.40	$3.60
3rd:	11	Always Free			$3.60
4th:	3	Vorian	
		
•	$2.00 EXACTA 4-1  $410.20
•	$2.00 TRIFECTA 4-1-11  $1001.40

[/SIZE]

[jay68802]

This is one of the things I love about this game. Just a bunch of Joe's discussing a race. Did anyone learn something. I probably did, just don't know it yet.

Points out how different approaches have their merits and downfalls. Oh well. More races to come. And still can't figure out how the got into the race.

Good job Nitro.

And College Game Day is in Lincoln, Nebraska this week. Lincoln has simulcasting. Can You say ROADTRIP.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by jay68802

. Funny thing about the race at Parx today, Nitro and his tote system might end up having the advantage here. Who knows? This is a very tough race. I know from the past that a horse that wins a race has a 95% chance of being rated 2 or lower in one of my rankings. Which one is it? No cut and dried answer there. You have a choice of ten horses.

I couldn’t help but notice your previous comment.
To be honest I always feel like I have an advantage.
What can I say: Except that the Money talks!

[mikesal57]

Nice going Nitro....and thx for the work Jay...

we should do it again...


And for you Jay...since its been eating you all this time...


In the Conditions its say....

For 3 Year Olds OR 4 year Olds who never won 2 races...

Which means any 3 year old can get in this race .....even if it won 5 races

and

Only 4 years Olds gets in if it didnt win more than one race


A good sign that the trainer is "smart"

[mikesal57]

As for what did we learn?


With the 6 losing the rider...it thru the race from the start because it was a EARLY Horse.....we dont know what the impact this caused..

As for the 4 winning....

From what I see.....I'll call it a trainer move...."Drop in class-new low level"


lets turn the page and cap next race...

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Nitro

I couldn’t help but notice your previous comment.
To be honest I always feel like I have an advantage.
What can I say: Except that the Money talks!

a horseplayer once said "Odds and I, against any two."...

[jay68802]

Originally Posted by Nitro

I couldn’t help but notice your previous comment.
To be honest I always feel like I have an advantage.
What can I say: Except that the Money talks!

Comment was sincere. I think about stuff like this a lot. I know I am using limited information when handicapping. Right now this is done on purpose. When I see a race like this, and I do not, or can not, come up with insight on my own, I often try to watch the tote to try and get some additional information. My ultimate goal is to blend a tote system like yours, with what I am doing now. Considering it has taken a year + to get to this point, I might get to that goal in 2035. I find I am now putting races into 3 categories. No advantage, I agree that the favorite is really strong and is not worth betting against. Mild advantage, like this race. To me it was a spread race for doubles and pick 3's. And races that I have the advantage. Be patient Jay, cause that last category will show up sooner or later.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by jay68802

Comment was sincere. I think about stuff like this a lot. I know I am using limited information when handicapping. Right now this is done on purpose. When I see a race like this, and I do not, or can not, come up with insight on my own, I often try to watch the tote to try and get some additional information. My ultimate goal is to blend a tote system like yours, with what I am doing now. Considering it has taken a year + to get to this point, I might get to that goal in 2035. I find I am now putting races into 3 categories. No advantage, I agree that the favorite is really strong and is not worth betting against. Mild advantage, like this race. To me it was a spread race for doubles and pick 3's. And races that I have the advantage. Be patient Jay, cause that last category will show up sooner or later.

When I first started getting my feet wet when using the tote analysis, I too continued to rely on my handicapping abilities, and comparing them to each other. I found out pretty soon that if I wanted to go with a valued play that the analysis very often conflicted with the handicapping in terms of providing legitimate contenders.

To some degree I also breakdown races for play-ability by matching the selected contenders with their current live odds. After some practice it becomes fairly obvious when a play is called for or not. Yesterday’s 5th @ PARX was a good example of a value play even with the favored #11 dropping to 2/1. The odds on the remaining contenders were substantial and definitely worth a play.

These days I only use the tote analysis. Besides, if I lose a bet I no longer blame myself. I blame those who are betting like a bunch of drunkin’ sailors. LOL
.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

a horseplayer once said "Odds and I, against any two."...

Never heard that one!
But it sounds like a perfect expression for a pari-mutuel game.

[Blenheim]

Class
Condition
Pace
Trainer/Jockey
Bias
~
Best horse usually wins if in condition to do so and should overcome pace; Jockey needs to be up to the task and the Davidowitz 'racetrack bias' is always an important handicapping consideration.

"I am not a believer in 'methods.' I am a believer in fundamentals."
Jack Nicklaus

[Magister Ludi]

Odds. Sometimes in addition to other factors but always odds.

Handicapping the Handicappers

Example:

TRACK ID: XX
n: 21104
t: 4 YEARS (2015-2018 inclusive)

investment*//win roi
#1/////////////-.229
#2/////////////-.173
#3/////////////-.142

*#1 - Bet $2 on each horse.
#2 - Bet in proportion to each horse’s implied probability of winning.
#3 - Use a probability-generating function to spread and normalize the probabilities of the lowest n/2 odds horses. (Round up n/2 if n is an odd number). Bet in proportion to each of the n/2 horse’s implied probability of winning.

This track shows a favorite-longshot bias (flb). Do you see why?

Race example:

Pp//odds///prob///#1 bet///#2 bet///#3 prob///#3 bet
1//////.5/////.546///$2.00///$5.46//////.611///$6.11
2/////2.4////.241///$2.00///$2.41//////.278///$2.78
3/////6.9////.104///$2.00///$1.04//////.111///$1.11
4/////9.5////.078///$2.00///$ .78////////0//////$0
5////25.7////.031///$2.00///$ .31////////0//////$0

Let’s add another factor.

TRACK ID: XX
SURFACE: S
n: 10116
t: 4 YEARS (2015-2018 inclusive)

investment//win roi
#1/////////////-.198
#2/////////////-.179
#3/////////////-.167

The flb is much weaker for races on synthetic surface...

TRACK ID: XX
SURFACE: T
n: 6858
t: 4 YEARS (2015-2018 inclusive)

investment//win roi
#1/////////////-.273
#2/////////////-.163
#3/////////////-.098

…and much stronger for races on turf.

One more factor ought to do it:

TRACK ID: XX
SURFACE: T
PP: 1,2
n: 1708
t: 4 YEARS (2015-2018 inclusive)

investment//win roi
#1/////////////-.147
#2/////////////-.010
#3/////////////+.075

Check with virgin data:

TRACK ID: XX
SURFACE: T
PP: 1,2
n: 312
t: 1 YEAR (2019)

investment//win roi
#1/////////////+.075
#2/////////////+.053
#3/////////////+.110

Q.E.D.

[mikesal57]

Originally Posted by Magister Ludi

Odds. Sometimes in addition to other factors but always odds.

Q.E.D.

Q

I totally agree that ML Odds is the top factor with relationship to winners...

But

What kind of "value" are you going to get when adding odds to your handicapping?

Dave Schwartz has been preaching for a long time that you can win if you can find "a bet against low odds horse".....with this approach you turn into a grinder which I been "not" my whole life....

So when I build/research factors , I leave out ML and Bris , which are the most relevant factors and hope I can find value using others.

Am I just cutting my nose off to spite my face here?

Mike

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by Magister Ludi

Odds. Sometimes in addition to other factors but always odds.

Handicapping the Handicappers

Example:

TRACK ID: XX
n: 21104
t: 4 YEARS (2015-2018 inclusive)

investment*//win roi
#1/////////////-.229
#2/////////////-.173
#3/////////////-.142

*#1 - Bet $2 on each horse.
#2 - Bet in proportion to each horse’s implied probability of winning.
#3 - Use a probability-generating function to spread and normalize the probabilities of the lowest n/2 odds horses. (Round up n/2 if n is an odd number). Bet in proportion to each of the n/2 horse’s implied probability of winning.

This track shows a favorite-longshot bias (flb). Do you see why?



Q.E.D.

Yes I do. The rest, not so much.