Whales: A chink in the armor?

[BCOURTNEY]

Originally Posted by Jeff P

Horse racing (with 22% blended takeout) is like the Titanic and horseplayers are the passengers.
.

The raft analogy is great. Even the though some sharp players realize the issue, they still concern themselves to rearranging the deck chairs while it's going down instead of finding the raft.

[AltonKelsey]

Originally Posted by BCOURTNEY

The raft analogy is great. Even the though some sharp players realize the issue, they still concern themselves to rearranging the deck chairs while it's going down instead of finding the raft.

I don't think folks realize how big a nut that is (20%). Without a constant source of new money, the betting dollar evaporates at a very unhealthy rate.


Not sure who is willing to LOSE all that money, but it aint the whales and it aint me. Probably not many of the posters here either.



Lifeblood of the game is in fact, new players. Willing to lose.


We had that for a long time before local casinos and lotteries everywhere.

[menifee]

Originally Posted by AltonKelsey

I don't think folks realize how big a nut that is (20%). Without a constant source of new money, the betting dollar evaporates at a very unhealthy rate.


Not sure who is willing to LOSE all that money, but it aint the whales and it aint me. Probably not many of the posters here either.



Lifeblood of the game is in fact, new players. Willing to lose.


We had that for a long time before local casinos and lotteries everywhere.

Australia had the same issue - than sports gambling became popular and legal. Try to justify a 20 percent nut when others are paying 10 percent on more popular sports. They went to exchange and fixed wagering and turned it around. As I stated before PM wagering is a dead product. Racing needs to completely change the pricing model.

[racenarios]

Totally agree. It would be an unfair advantage, but the equivalent is SOP in the stock mkt - it's called "HFT." Read "Flash Boys" by Michael Lewis. The big players bid among themselves for the fastest "real time" access to the flow of transactions, often buying license to co-locate within the exchange bldg in order to beat their competition to a guaranteed arbitrage opportunity by a few nanoseconds. The exchanges are anxious to cooperate with their whales and apparently dont mind screwing the public in the process. As in any other endeavor, $money talks; if it happens on Wall Street, it could happen at the OTB hubs as well...

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by racenarios

Totally agree. It would be an unfair advantage, but the equivalent is SOP in the stock mkt - it's called "HFT." Read "Flash Boys" by Michael Lewis. The big players bid among themselves for the fastest "real time" access to the flow of transactions, often buying license to co-locate within the exchange bldg in order to beat their competition to a guaranteed arbitrage opportunity by a few nanoseconds. The exchanges are anxious to cooperate with their whales and apparently dont mind screwing the public in the process. As in any other endeavor, $money talks; if it happens on Wall Street, it could happen at the OTB hubs as well...

Technically, that kind of arrangement is available in horse racing but all it does is get you the same information that the public gets a few seconds earlier.

To be clear, it doesn't get you more frequent updates. It just gets you the updates a little fast. And it is crazy expensive. Of course, if you are betting THAT kind of money, the ADW will work the cost into your "arrangement."

It does allow you to WAGER faster, but before people get all bent out of shape over that, one must honestly ask themselves, "Is having to bet when the 1st horse enters the gate vs. when the next-to-last horse enters what is causing you to lose?"

I think not.


Dave

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Technically, that kind of arrangement is available in horse racing but all it does is get you the same information that the public gets a few seconds earlier.

To be clear, it doesn't get you more frequent updates. It just gets you the updates a little fast. And it is crazy expensive. Of course, if you are betting THAT kind of money, the ADW will work the cost into your "arrangement."

It does allow you to WAGER faster, but before people get all bent out of shape over that, one must honestly ask themselves, "Is having to bet when the 1st horse enters the gate vs. when the next-to-last horse enters what is causing you to lose?"

I think not.


Dave

What does the ability to wager when the last horse enters the gate, instead of when the 1st horse enters the gate, mean to the Whales, profit-wise?

[JerryBoyle]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

What does the ability to wager when the last horse enters the gate, instead of when the 1st horse enters the gate, mean to the Whales, profit-wise?

This is a good question. Phrased another slightly different way - how would you/I use access to quicker tote updates successfully? So far, the only thing I can think of is that it might let me avoid cases where I bet and then someone immediately bets after me, lowering my selection below what would be breakeven. Seeing that bet a little bit earlier may let get out of that case. Not sure how often that might happen or if it's even a realistic scenario. Even if it were, those cases would strike as whale vs whale scenarios.

As Dave said, how would YOU profit from tote data that you get let's say 30 seconds faster than I get?

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by JerryBoyle

This is a good question. Phrased another slightly different way - how would you/I use access to quicker tote updates successfully? So far, the only thing I can think of is that it might let me avoid cases where I bet and then someone immediately bets after me, lowering my selection below what would be breakeven. Seeing that bet a little bit earlier may let get out of that case. Not sure how often that might happen or if it's even a realistic scenario. Even if it were, those cases would strike as whale vs whale scenarios.

As Dave said, how would YOU profit from tote data that you get let's say 30 seconds faster than I get?

These ultra-quick updates would only help the bettor if he already has the technical ability to attach them to the powerful betting software which would allow him to place his bets at a lightening speed, as well. The cost of such a luxury would probably eliminate you and me.

That's why I asked Dave my prior question. How big of an advantage do these quick updates give to these Whales...when they still have each other to outmaneuver?

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

These ultra-quick updates would only help the bettor if he already has the technical ability to attach them to the powerful betting software which would allow him to place his bets at a lightening speed, as well. The cost of such a luxury would probably eliminate you and me.

That's why I asked Dave my prior question. How big of an advantage do these quick updates give to these Whales...when they still have each other to outmaneuver?

Question Thask, who do you think has the bigger advantage, the ultra-quick betting software, or the Big Guy at the track who's standing by his "teller", canceling his bets when his horse doesn't break well 10 seconds after they've left the gate?

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

Question Thask, who do you think has the bigger advantage, the ultra-quick betting software, or the Big Guy at the track who's standing by his "teller", canceling his bets when his horse doesn't break well 15 seconds after they've left the gate?

How do you know that it ain't the same guy(s) in both cases?

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

What does the ability to wager when the last horse enters the gate, instead of when the 1st horse enters the gate, mean to the Whales, profit-wise?

Nothing, really.

That was my point.


I suppose that they could have a little more time computing trifecta and superfecta combinations, but with money being no object, the computing horse power is purchasable.

There is also a matter of reliability.

For example, most people get tote information from an ADW, then it is passed to the player. This allows the whale to get the data directly from the source - i.e. the same level as the ADW.

There really isn't much advantage. Certainly nothing that is causing anyone to lose that would otherwise win.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

How do you know that it ain't the same guy(s) in both cases?

Nope....try again.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Nothing, really.

That was my point.


I suppose that they could have a little more time computing trifecta and superfecta combinations, but with money being no object, the computing horse power is purchasable.

There is also a matter of reliability.

For example, most people get tote information from an ADW, then it is passed to the player. This allows the whale to get the data directly from the source - i.e. the same level as the ADW.

There really isn't much advantage. Certainly nothing that is causing anyone to lose that would otherwise win.

That's where I get confused. If there isn't any real advantage...then why do these syndicates play the "crazy cost" that you said these quick updates carry?

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

Nope....try again.

You'll need to do better than that, Randall...if you really want me to debate you further. You'll have to tell me how you can be sure that the "Big Guy", who is standing next to the teller so he could cancel his bets after the race starts, isn't associated with the OTHER guys...who are making the computer bets.

[Seabiscuit@AR]

Good question Thaskalos re why do the biggest whale syndicates pay the crazy cost for the best and fastest tote updates

The answer is obvious. It is a big advantage to have last crack at the tote board

Bets made by other players contain information. The biggest whale syndicate gets to see everyone else's bets before they place their bet. They then have the chance to factor in this information before they make their own bets. It gives them a chance to catch those late bets made by stable insiders and then bet in response

So the stable insider places a large bet with seconds to go. The big whale syndicate has a chance to see this and follow the money if they think that is the right play to make. The average player only sees this betting action halfway through the race = late odd changes that everyone has been complaining about recently