View Poll Results: What post time odds would you require to bet on Justify in the Belmont?
|
1/1 or even lower
|
|
9 |
16.98% |
2/1
|
|
20 |
37.74% |
3/1
|
|
9 |
16.98% |
4/1
|
|
8 |
15.09% |
5/1
|
|
2 |
3.77% |
6/1 or higher
|
|
5 |
9.43% |
|
|
05-24-2018, 04:18 PM
|
#1
|
Veteran
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Vancouver Canada
Posts: 3,204
|
What post time odds would you require to bet on Justify in the Belmont?
What post time odds would you require to bet on Justify in the Belmont?
|
|
|
05-24-2018, 05:10 PM
|
#2
|
Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
|
At least 30 to 1. Maybe more.
I think he is an almost certain loser.
|
|
|
05-24-2018, 05:15 PM
|
#3
|
Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp
At least 30 to 1. Maybe more.
I think he is an almost certain loser.
|
What odds will you give me, I will take a bet. 15/1?
|
|
|
05-24-2018, 05:45 PM
|
#4
|
Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP
What odds will you give me, I will take a bet. 15/1?
|
The track is going to offer me excellent odds. I think this is the betting opportunity of a lifetime.
|
|
|
05-24-2018, 06:46 PM
|
#5
|
Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 733
|
I would rather bet Justify at 1/1 or lower.
4/1 or higher he would have ZERO chance of winning. He would be so Icey on the odds board, it would shatter.
|
|
|
05-25-2018, 11:03 AM
|
#6
|
Registered User
Join Date: May 2018
Posts: 445
|
How I bet depends more on the odds of the horses I like for a tri or super. So even money or less is expected and ok.
|
|
|
05-26-2018, 03:19 PM
|
#7
|
$2 Showbettor
Join Date: Dec 2013
Location: The Villages
Posts: 2,578
|
I think 3/1 would be a good price, but won't happen, especially with the main contenders dropping like flies. I think it will be closer to 8/5.
Bravazo & Tenfold will get some interest but I don't think either of them will be under 5-1. They were 15-1 & 26-1 in the Preakness.
Last edited by Redboard; 05-26-2018 at 03:21 PM.
|
|
|
05-26-2018, 04:25 PM
|
#8
|
Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Redboard
I think 3/1 would be a good price, but won't happen, especially with the main contenders dropping like flies. I think it will be closer to 8/5.
Bravazo & Tenfold will get some interest but I don't think either of them will be under 5-1. They were 15-1 & 26-1 in the Preakness.
|
I think Justify will go off around 4/5.
|
|
|
05-26-2018, 05:03 PM
|
#9
|
$2 Showbettor
Join Date: Dec 2013
Location: The Villages
Posts: 2,578
|
I wouldn't be surprised.
But since Todd Pletcher won this race last year by skipping the Preakness, I think Vino Rosso and Noble Indy will both get some buzz, say around 4-1 each. Bravazo & Tenfold at 5-1, so we have, 16 + 16 + 20 + 20, which adds up to 72 (we need 125). There's always some interest in the Peter Pan winner so that's probably around 7-1 (12 points). The rest of the field might add up to 10-1, that's another 9 points, leaving 32 for Justify or 2-1.
|
|
|
05-27-2018, 11:56 AM
|
#10
|
Registered User
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 930
|
I put it at 3/2 ... I'd start to seriously look at him at this point.
Who will be the pace? That's the trick. Will he "handle" Big Sandy?
|
|
|
05-29-2018, 06:25 PM
|
#11
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 37
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Redboard
I wouldn't be surprised.
But since Todd Pletcher won this race last year by skipping the Preakness, I think Vino Rosso and Noble Indy will both get some buzz, say around 4-1 each. Bravazo & Tenfold at 5-1, so we have, 16 + 16 + 20 + 20, which adds up to 72 (we need 125). There's always some interest in the Peter Pan winner so that's probably around 7-1 (12 points). The rest of the field might add up to 10-1, that's another 9 points, leaving 32 for Justify or 2-1.
|
Justify will be much lower than 2-1. Vino Rosso and Noble Indy at 4-1 each? Maybe 5-1 and 10-1. Justify will be no higher than 3-5 odds.
|
|
|
05-29-2018, 09:01 PM
|
#12
|
Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 311
|
4/5 at best. Wayyyy too many $2 souvenirs will be bought.
|
|
|
05-30-2018, 12:22 AM
|
#13
|
Registered User
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 22,629
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp
I think Justify will go off around 4/5.
|
I can get 1/2 at my sportsbook right now, so 95% chance it will be at least that high...
|
|
|
05-30-2018, 10:02 PM
|
#14
|
$2 Showbettor
Join Date: Dec 2013
Location: The Villages
Posts: 2,578
|
One thing for certain, how low Justify goes will have a huge impact on the value of everyone else, which isn't exactly something you didn't know, but I was looking at the odds of the last three Belmont TC attempts:
*AP 0.75
4.1
5.4
14.1
14.6
17.2
19.9
21.7
Chrome 0.85
5.3
8.3
8.9
9.2*
19.5
24.75
28.0
34
34.5
40.75
Big Brown 0.30
7.2
14.5
17.0
17.4
25.0
28.75
34.25
38.5*
* = winner
Maybe now that someone has actually won the TC (AP) bettors will be more likely to pound Justify down to Big Brown level. Whereas Chrome's and AP's relatively high odds were due to bettor frustration over years of TC flops.
|
|
|
05-31-2018, 06:24 PM
|
#15
|
Registered User
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 930
|
If even money or lower, you'd be a damn fool to bet Justify to win, because there is a much better bet.
I've posted on this before, too. It's such a good bet, I won't tell you. I think you guys may know what I'm talking about.
Paid fairly well with AP (-:
A friend didn't sack up with a G on it like I did
|
|
|
|
|
Thread Tools |
|
Rate This Thread |
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
|
|