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07-12-2018, 05:08 PM
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#91
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 4,284
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AndyC
Has little to do with lack of knowledge/conviction. It's more like not wanting to wait 30 minutes between races to bet $10 on a 2-1 horse to win. Call it the excitement factor.
If a bettor is skilled/lucky enough to find an overlay they should look to exotics to get maximum leverage.
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It better be VERY VERY MAXIMUM leverage. Because those pools cost 7% more.
If you're skilled/lucky enough to find a true overlay I see absolutely no reason to complicate the matter by adding extra horses to the equation and paying an exorbitant price to do so.
Regarding the "excitement" factor. If not wanting to wait 30 minutes is a decision making factor. Please provide the addresses of those people. I'm happy to send a stretch limo for them to come to the races.
__________________
"Just because she's a hitter and a thief doesn't mean she's not a good woman in all the other places" Mayrose Prizzi
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07-12-2018, 05:17 PM
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#92
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,549
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Quote:
Originally Posted by v j stauffer
It better be VERY VERY MAXIMUM leverage. Because those pools cost 7% more.
If you're skilled/lucky enough to find a true overlay I see absolutely no reason to complicate the matter by adding extra horses to the equation and paying an exorbitant price to do so.
Regarding the "excitement" factor. If not wanting to wait 30 minutes is a decision making factor. Please provide the addresses of those people. I'm happy to send a stretch limo for them to come to the races.
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Not so fast. These players don't bet much...and won't stick around for long. Send them a bus-pass instead.
__________________
Live to play another day.
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07-12-2018, 05:20 PM
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#93
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
When I see a player betting 4% of his bankroll on a single play...then I hope, for his sake, that his bankroll is readily replaceable in the event that it is lost. Otherwise...a much greater degree of safety is recommended...IMO. This is a game where losing streaks are the rule rather than the exception...and the 4% betting unit depletes the bankroll at a rate that can frazzle the player's nerves, to the point where it may become impossible to play the game with the confidence that it demands.
The bigger the bankroll is, the harder it is to replace it...and the more necessary it becomes to treat it with the respect that it deserves. Underbetting our bankroll may not be as "adventurous" as we would like, but it allows us to function with our sanity intact...whereas OVERBETTING our bankroll is FATAL...for bankroll and sanity alike.
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I play in the win place pools and usually, unless I really like something, bet about 3% per wager.
I started with a small amount but have built that up.
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07-12-2018, 05:25 PM
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#94
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 4,284
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
Not so fast. These players don't bet much...and won't stick around for long. Send them a bus-pass instead.
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Maybe one of those Airport Express vans that make multiple stops. Probably most cost effective!
__________________
"Just because she's a hitter and a thief doesn't mean she's not a good woman in all the other places" Mayrose Prizzi
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07-12-2018, 05:29 PM
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#95
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 4,284
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP
I play in the win place pools and usually, unless I really like something, bet about 3% per wager.
I started with a small amount but have built that up.
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Good for you. You're on the right track. You might want to consider staying strictly in the win pool.
While some bets may pay $9.00 to place. There's a lot more that come back $14.80 & $3.40.
I think you'll find that putting the entire bet into the win pool will bring a better return over time.
Takes some stones and promotes longer droughts but will ultimately serve you well.
__________________
"Just because she's a hitter and a thief doesn't mean she's not a good woman in all the other places" Mayrose Prizzi
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07-12-2018, 05:38 PM
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#96
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
Crushing reply Sport, as usual....Heck, you just don't know.
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At least I make substantive replies. You, on the other hand, are just flinging insults.
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07-12-2018, 05:39 PM
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#97
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AndyC
Has little to do with lack of knowledge/conviction. It's more like not wanting to wait 30 minutes between races to bet $10 on a 2-1 horse to win. Call it the excitement factor.
If a bettor is skilled/lucky enough to find an overlay they should look to exotics to get maximum leverage.
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I have seen many circumstances where a complicated exacta or trifecta bet ends up paying lower odds against the money invested than a simple win bet.
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07-12-2018, 05:46 PM
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#98
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 4,284
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp
At least I make substantive replies. You, on the other hand, are just flinging insults.
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7 pages of so many good thoughts and sentiments. Please avoid the temptation of this thread going "PA" and getting closed.
__________________
"Just because she's a hitter and a thief doesn't mean she's not a good woman in all the other places" Mayrose Prizzi
Last edited by v j stauffer; 07-12-2018 at 05:55 PM.
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07-12-2018, 06:51 PM
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#99
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: Missouri
Posts: 2,190
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
Last few posts by Vic & Thaskalos should be framed and mounted on every player's wall.
There is absolutely nothing wrong with starting small. In fact, it's absolutely required. In fact, you shouldn't even start out betting real money.
When first starting out in this game, it should be paper bets only.
You need to be brutally honest with yourself if you want to play this game with any seriousness. And that means knowing that you are a loser, until you are not.
And you don't want to be betting real money when you are a loser.
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I agree w/this and look at the charts and replays of your paper bets and adjust accordingly
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07-12-2018, 06:56 PM
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#100
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
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Quote:
Originally Posted by v j stauffer
7 pages of so many good thoughts and sentiments. Please avoid the temptation of this thread going "PA" and getting closed.
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Point taken Vic.
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07-12-2018, 07:48 PM
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#101
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2018
Posts: 430
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Quote:
Originally Posted by groupie doll
Can you expound on the bolded? Not sure quite what you mean by that...and you've said it twice now, so it must be important.
The break (if I take one) clears my psyche... and it does work for me.
Regarding this: A bet made three days after a bad run or three months after is still only the next bet you're making. It's either proper and excellent or it's not.
When I take a break in a "slump"... my next bet is more typically proper (and possibly excellent) vs. not. That's why I take the break to begin with. It's akin to mediating when you feel your mind is cluttered and busy and I usually have more clarity and focus post-break. And by break I mean anything from a couple of days to a couple of weeks. My breaks usually don't go much longer than that unless I'm away, swamped at work with no time, dealing with some unexpected family issue, etc.
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Hm. I was looking forward to expanding my knowledge base via a response... looks like that may not happen.
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07-12-2018, 08:08 PM
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#102
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 4,285
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
I think you are wrong. There have been many cases here when a poster will start a thread by asking the group to handicap a particular race in advance. Whenever this happens...the majority of the responders will offer an exacta or a trifecta combination as their selection...instead of a win-bet. Is this because of the "excitement factor" too?
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I don't read the selection threads so really can't respond to the motivations of the respondents who want to offer exacta or trifecta selections. I can only guess that picking a winner is not viewed with the same admiration as picking an exacta or trifecta. There are many people who get a bigger thrill from the admiration of others than they do cashing a ticket.
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07-12-2018, 08:14 PM
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#103
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AndyC
I don't read the selection threads so really can't respond to the motivations of the respondents who want to offer exacta or trifecta selections. I can only guess that picking a winner is not viewed with the same admiration as picking an exacta or trifecta. There are many people who get a bigger thrill from the admiration of others than they do cashing a ticket.
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There's definitely a ton of that psychology..Let's say you identified a dead bang 3 to 5 shot whose post time odds are even money. So you chunk it in and double your money. That's an excellent pick- consistently identifying those situations will net you plenty of money. But it won't net you a lot of credit.
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07-12-2018, 08:40 PM
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#104
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 4,285
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Quote:
Originally Posted by v j stauffer
It better be VERY VERY MAXIMUM leverage. Because those pools cost 7% more.
If you're skilled/lucky enough to find a true overlay I see absolutely no reason to complicate the matter by adding extra horses to the equation and paying an exorbitant price to do so.
Regarding the "excitement" factor. If not wanting to wait 30 minutes is a decision making factor. Please provide the addresses of those people. I'm happy to send a stretch limo for them to come to the races.
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If you know how to leverage correctly the cost should not be a problem.
While you might not see a reason others might see a reason. It doesn't fit your style so it is perfectly logical that you would avoid the "complication". Can I assume by your "exorbitant price" comment that you have not done any research into the risk-reward of leveraging? Personally I never implemented betting strategies based on feelings or assumptions.
Grinding out win bets is not the only way to play the races successfully. Especially today when you have no idea what the odds will be until after the race has run.
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07-12-2018, 08:44 PM
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#105
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 4,285
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp
I have seen many circumstances where a complicated exacta or trifecta bet ends up paying lower odds against the money invested than a simple win bet.
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No doubt. Leverage is not something you add blindly, there is a skill to the proper application.
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