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Old 05-04-2018, 06:47 PM   #46
dilanesp
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Let me see if I can advance the discussion here.

Benter's success is being attributed to several things:

1. His handicapping skill.

2. The amount of dumb money in HK betting pools.

3. Rebates (and maybe not rebates).

4. Volume.

What can a person who doesn't have his skill, his access to the HK pools and possibly rebates, and his bankroll do then?

Well, there is one thing:

The sophisticated computer models of these guys spit out numerous betting opportunities every day, where the odds are slightly overlaid.

We, for the most part, can't do that here.

But what a casual player CAN do is identify occasional situations where things are way out of whack. Every once in awhile, you come upon a race where the public is just completely overbetting or underbetting something. It doesn't happen that often. But it does happen. That's the situation- and really the only one- where a small player has an edge. Every once in awhile a football spread is way out of whack, or a basketball spread.

If you don't have the sophisticated computer models, and you are not a 99th percentile handicapper, this isn't going to be every race Indeed, it may not happen at all for a week, or a month Because you don't have the statistical precision of Benter's computers, you can't accurately identify slight overlays. You have to wait for big ones.

What kills so many casual players is the inability to wait for these spots.

Last edited by dilanesp; 05-04-2018 at 06:48 PM.
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Old 05-04-2018, 08:06 PM   #47
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Good post. I read that article and it seemed less about handicapping than computer arbitrage or any other sort of modern, more investment type technology.

Last edited by LemonSoupKid; 05-04-2018 at 08:07 PM.
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Old 05-04-2018, 08:25 PM   #48
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I don't know him personally but I do know people with knowledge of his situation which is similar to how most teams operate. From what I know they churn hundreds of millions of dollars and get the highest rebates available.

The industry gave them the opportunity to maximize their profits by leveraging rebates and designing systems to basically break even with the rebates being their profits. I don't blame anyone for taking advantage of a system that lets them. I happen to live in a state that has a retention cap where the rebates or rewards are basically nothing. And I do think that the allowing one group to get huge rebates while already having a bankroll edge and a SKILL edge is killing the game. If they have a skill edge then they should be able to compete at retail takeout rates (which should be lowered by 5% to 7% for everyone). Not gonna grow the game with what is going on now in the United States. And I am talking about wagering in the United States which is parimutuel wagering.

If I'm wrong which is possible but unlikely then give me some facts.
he would receive rebates i am sure, but the rebates won't be the reason they are winning.
i don't know for sure about benter, but i know woods was winning more than just rebates, a lot more in fact.
it follows then, that if benter was better at it than the woods team(as i am led to believe), then it would be the same.

the morals of it are another subject, and personally,i am against them despite being a beneficiary in the long ago.
but businesses are entitled to favour their big customers i guess.
before i got rebates, i used to be offered all sorts of things, like boxes to major sporting events, and lots of other things.
i always knocked them back(mainly because i am an unsociable prick!), but did take the rebates that we negotiated, but i would still be in front without the rebates.
if i could win over and above the rebate, then they would have too, only infinitely more than me.
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Old 05-04-2018, 11:23 PM   #49
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I'm trying find the part where he made even 0.1%($1 million) of the billion he has made on AMERICAN racing...hmm, let me read it again.......nope NOT there.

Trying to compare results from a racing jurisdiction where integrity and transparency are TOP priority vs what we have here in the United States is COMICAL.
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Old 05-04-2018, 11:43 PM   #50
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Originally Posted by dilanesp View Post
Let me see if I can advance the discussion here.

Benter's success is being attributed to several things:

1. His handicapping skill.

2. The amount of dumb money in HK betting pools.

3. Rebates (and maybe not rebates).

4. Volume.

What can a person who doesn't have his skill, his access to the HK pools and possibly rebates, and his bankroll do then?

Well, there is one thing:

The sophisticated computer models of these guys spit out numerous betting opportunities every day, where the odds are slightly overlaid.

We, for the most part, can't do that here.

But what a casual player CAN do is identify occasional situations where things are way out of whack. Every once in awhile, you come upon a race where the public is just completely overbetting or underbetting something. It doesn't happen that often. But it does happen. That's the situation- and really the only one- where a small player has an edge. Every once in awhile a football spread is way out of whack, or a basketball spread.

If you don't have the sophisticated computer models, and you are not a 99th percentile handicapper, this isn't going to be every race Indeed, it may not happen at all for a week, or a month Because you don't have the statistical precision of Benter's computers, you can't accurately identify slight overlays. You have to wait for big ones.

What kills so many casual players is the inability to wait for these spots.

Hard to argue that. I bet sports for fun but I have to admit, several times a year I find a game that I absolutely love and feel the line is way off. If I only bet on those games I would be way ahead.
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Old 05-04-2018, 11:44 PM   #51
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Originally Posted by LemonSoupKid View Post
Good post. I read that article and it seemed less about handicapping than computer arbitrage or any other sort of modern, more investment type technology.

Arbitrage is a good word to explain it.
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Old 05-05-2018, 12:28 AM   #52
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I'm trying find the part where he made even 0.1%($1 million) of the billion he has made on AMERICAN racing...hmm, let me read it again.......nope NOT there.

Trying to compare results from a racing jurisdiction where integrity and transparency are TOP priority vs what we have here in the United States is COMICAL.
i dunno about benter, but i did stuff for woods(time related) a long time ago.
they were already betting in countries other than hk.
in fact the first thing i did for them was to do with sth korea.
i don't think woods did australia when he was alive, but they certainly did(and very successfully) after he died(his duaghter victoria got control)
doubt that would be less involved than the usa, and in case they were going to give me usa data to do my stuff for them.
unfortunately he died first, but i would be confident they got involved at some stage, even if i had no part in it.
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Old 05-05-2018, 12:30 AM   #53
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Arbitrage is a good word to explain it.
if that is what they did it might be a good word for it, but unless arbitrage means something different to what i think it does, then it's not.
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Old 05-05-2018, 01:25 AM   #54
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if that is what they did it might be a good word for it, but unless arbitrage means something different to what i think it does, then it's not.
What they are doing would not be called "arbitrage."

Steve is right.
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Old 05-05-2018, 09:34 AM   #55
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Spreading possibilities over the short term with only finite outcomes is essentially arbitrage

They weren't taking "stands" on positions.

To the common man, this is not handicapping. At all.
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Old 05-05-2018, 11:05 AM   #56
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now we're headed off into poorly argued semantics
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Old 05-05-2018, 11:54 AM   #57
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now we're headed off into poorly argued semantics
Right. Someone could just post a Computer Team rebate schedule. Not gonna happen
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Old 05-05-2018, 12:43 PM   #58
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Benter's success is really about hard-work, organization, and most importantly; timing.

getting side-tracked about how they leverage rebates, is sorta missing the point; there's plenty enough time to rally against that elsewhere.
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Old 05-05-2018, 02:26 PM   #59
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To the common man, this is not handicapping. At all.
Oh, it absolutely is...at its pinnacle.

It's the very ESSENCE of what handicapping should be. Assessing a horse's chances and betting as much as you can and still allow it to pay a higher price than it should if it wins.
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Old 05-05-2018, 02:49 PM   #60
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This should be required reading for anyone who ever comes on here again and tries to tell us these whales are myths or that nobody can beat the game with an algorithm (they must be past posting), or whatever other nonsense people like to spout who can't fathom that smart folks with computers can absolutely make a killing at this game.
before I buy into the characterization of this "successful" bet I would want to know what was the expected return compared to the actual return.
Also consider cost for his possible previous attempts to win the pool.
I'll take a look to see if the data for that card is available
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