Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Handicapping Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 09-02-2010, 06:17 PM   #1
misscashalot
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 828
What effects the odds mostly

Generally what handicapping factor has the greatest influence on post time odds?
__________________
---------------------



misscashalot is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-02-2010, 06:43 PM   #2
Overlay
 
Overlay's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
Posts: 7,706
Figures (especially Beyers)
Overlay is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-02-2010, 09:16 PM   #3
thaskalos
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,363
Sharp early speed, when combined with a 2+ level drop in class.
thaskalos is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-02-2010, 09:19 PM   #4
BELMONT 6-6-09
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: New York
Posts: 1,454
Hot jockeys and/or trainers can really pack an influence on the toteboard ie.Canani @ Arlington.
BELMONT 6-6-09 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-02-2010, 09:37 PM   #5
DeanT
Registered User
 
DeanT's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Toronto
Posts: 4,962
From my DB, I would have to agree with Overlay. Speed figs.

If you had a two horse race and one horse was a 90 and one an 80, but the 80 was dropping in class with a hot new trainer, people would still make the 90 the chalk, I believe. The pull of the "fastest horse" will always win out. jmo
DeanT is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-02-2010, 09:47 PM   #6
thaskalos
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,363
If the high beyer horses are going up in class, they are rarely favored...and they seldom win.

IMO, class is still the most influencial factor out there, as far as odds are concerned.

Just look at what happens when a horse with mediocre figures ships from a major to a minor track.

The "high class" shipper has much inferior numbers than the other horses...but gets bet "off the board".
thaskalos is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-02-2010, 10:55 PM   #7
DeanT
Registered User
 
DeanT's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Toronto
Posts: 4,962
I dunno Thask.

For 2010.

Code:
By: Class Shift (Using Purse Value)
 
 	Class Shift (PV)	   Gain	   Bet	   Roi   Wins  Plays	 Pct	 Impact
 				   0   -3848.50  26684.00	0.8558   4884  13342   .3661	 0.9902  no change
 				   1   -1615.40  11062.00	0.8540   1997   5531   .3611	 0.9766  class riser
 				   2   -3876.70  26594.00	0.8542   5012  13297   .3769	 1.0196  class dropper
For top fig horses
Code:
Rank	   Gain	   Bet	   Roi   Wins  Plays	 Pct	 Impact
 				   1   -3107.00  26846.00	0.8843   5540  13423   .4127	 1.1164  
 				   2   -1783.00  13542.00	0.8683   2522   6771   .3725	 1.0075  
 				   3   -1478.80   8600.00	0.8280   1472   4300   .3423	 0.9260  
 				   4   -1119.80   6044.00	0.8147	974   3022   .3223	 0.8718
DeanT is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-02-2010, 11:10 PM   #8
Robert Goren
Racing Form Detective
 
Robert Goren's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Lincoln, Ne but my heart is at Santa Anita
Posts: 16,316
"Smart Money" If the word is out on a horse, it will get bet regardless of any other factors. This is true everywhere, from Saratoga to Fonner Park and every place in between.
__________________
Some day in the not too distant future, horse players will betting on computer generated races over the net. Race tracks will become casinos and shopping centers. And some crooner will be belting out "there used to be a race track here".
Robert Goren is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-03-2010, 07:41 AM   #9
Ocala Mike
Registered User
 
Ocala Mike's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2010
Posts: 5,005
What effects the odds mostly

An "in the money" finish in the horse's last race is still a huge factor in influencing its odds.


Ocala Mike
Ocala Mike is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-03-2010, 10:19 AM   #10
SMOO
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 580
"What effects the odds mostly"




I would say the amount of money bet on the horse.
SMOO is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-03-2010, 10:35 AM   #11
misscashalot
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 828
Quote:
Originally Posted by SMOO
"What effects the odds mostly"




I would say the amount of money bet on the horse.
I knew there was a brilliant player out there somewhere.
__________________
---------------------



misscashalot is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-03-2010, 11:02 AM   #12
Fingal
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 955
The flavor of the month ( or week ) when it comes to jockey & trainer.
Fingal is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-03-2010, 01:56 PM   #13
46zilzal
velocitician
 
46zilzal's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 26,229
Quote:
Originally Posted by misscashalot
Generally what handicapping factor has the greatest influence on post time odds?
Last Line itis
__________________
"If this world is all about winners, what's for the losers?" Jr. Bonner: "Well somebody's got to hold the horses Ace."
46zilzal is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-03-2010, 01:58 PM   #14
Stillriledup
Veteran
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 25,607
Quote:
Originally Posted by misscashalot
Generally what handicapping factor has the greatest influence on post time odds?
What appears to be lone speed, OR, a horse ridden by the leading rider and trained by the leading trainer at the meet.
Stillriledup is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-03-2010, 03:29 PM   #15
skate
s.e. pa.
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: flag, az/hatfield, pa.
Posts: 5,122
Quote:
Originally Posted by SMOO
"What effects the odds mostly"




I would say the amount of money bet on the horse.

What about the amount Not bet on the horse?
skate is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 11:04 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.