Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Handicapping Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 08-10-2010, 12:05 PM   #1
rmania
Registered User
 
rmania's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: San Diego, CA
Posts: 1,052
Sunday's 2nd @ Del Mar - After Further Review

Yeah, I'm talking about the race that produced the $143 winner, a $2K $1-exacta, a $33K $1-tri and a $257K $1-super.

Let it be known that I immediately cried FIX !!! as did 99.9% of anyone else who saw the race.

But, after going back and taking a closer look at the race. I've determined that it was legit. Just a lot of "resonable" things happened to create this perfect storm.

When I handicap races I usually look for patterns of regression or improvement using the speed ratings in the PPs (notice I said usually). When a pattern is detected I either adjust the last race running time to be consistent with the pattern or I pick another paceline consistent with the pattern. The result is used to predict a running time for this race.

So, after further review, this is how it all shook out. I'll just go through the field starting with the #1 horse. If you have a racing form from Sunday's card you can follow along..

And remember, this was all done AFTER THE RACE.

#1 - No real pattern and not really considered a contender off his last race. With no race over the track I used his last race and gave him a 2 length regression which IMO was resonable (turned out to be more).

#2 - Seen as a contender, based on his last at the same distance over the DMR surface and running an "even" race, I pegged him to regress 1 length. Agian, a resonable assumption.

#3 - With a pattern of Good - Bad - Bad - Good this one appeared to be sitting on Good. Rather than adjusting his last Bad race time I used his paceline from 3 back (his last Good race) and added a 2 lenght regression to it as it seemed that the Goods were becoming "less Good" in the pattern.

#4 - Though he managed to gain the show in his last start his final time didn't appear fast enough to contend. And, since he was losing ground to the winner at the end, I gave him a 1 length regression. Reasonable??

#5 - Was embarrassed in his only start and there was nothing to suggest that today would be any different. And it wasn't.

$6 - With only 4 races in the books there appeared to be no drastic swings in the pattern. His lowest speed rating was acheived on a slow surfare (track variant of 23) where he finished 2nd. However, there was a change in tactics in his last race when the jockey allowed him to settle early and then closed from off the pace. As a result of that race, I figured that a repeat was likely so I used his last race and showed no regression or improvement. A reasonable assumption since "closers" typically repeat more often than front runners.

#7 - This was the even money favorite... He was returning to SoCal after a super effort @ 1 1/16 m on the Fair Circuit. With that super effort he appeared ripe for a bounce and you didn't have to look too far down to find a race where he did bounce. It was his race just prior to the super effort. This was the paceline I used and it proved to be the right choice

#8 - Had the look of a contender off his kast race @ 1 1/16 m but the PPs seemed to scream the fact that this horse can't sprint. Using his best sprint paceline still put him in the back of the bus.

#9 - with a poor effort in his only start, I thought this one would contend with the addition of blinkers. In hind sight, a shorter distance may have helped his cause.

#11 - His pattern showed consistency and even though he seemed to have reached a new plauto with his speed ratings I felt he could basically repeat his last. But since his last wasn't really fast enough to contend I stuck him with a 2 length regression.

#10 - Here's your $143 winner and it was no easy task figuring out how he won but here's what I came up with. The most obvious thing was that he was getting lasix for the first time. And where many will point to this as the only reason, I think I found a few more. In his last race (1st career start) he was 17 lenghts behind after a 1/4 mile and 12 lenghts behind after a 1/2 mile. Using the exact same fractions against this group he looked to be 9 lengths back and 6 lengths back respectively. Now, if you do the math this may appear to be a 2 length exaggeration but I would credit this to the lasix. Even with the lasix and the better position after a 1/2 mile, he still had to shave off more than 2 seconds of his last race to win. Apparently not an unreasonable task.

Final order of finish 10-3-2-6 and apparently legit.
__________________
Alternative Handicapping Talk

Last edited by rmania; 08-10-2010 at 12:20 PM.
rmania is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-10-2010, 12:30 PM   #2
snoadog
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Canada
Posts: 51
I was looking at this card too. I had not thrown out the 2nd race's winner but my notes about the horse said someting like: "Okay, but maybe not this time". I was immediately suprised at the price he paid rather than the fact that he won.
snoadog is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-10-2010, 05:46 PM   #3
iwearpurple
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 1,281
I'll add another couple of thoughts, although this is always easier after the race.

I never ever totally dismiss a horse in their 2nd start.
Trainer rarely wins, but does have a positive ROI for the year.
An apprentice jockey who was 3 for 11 and 1 for 3 riding for Martinez.

Would I have picked this horse? I doubt it, but I would not have eliminated it either.
iwearpurple is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-11-2010, 05:03 AM   #4
PaceAdvantage
PA Steward
 
PaceAdvantage's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,069
Quote:
Originally Posted by rmania
Let it be known that I immediately cried FIX !!! as did 99.9% of anyone else who saw the race.
Fixed? I would reason immediately that if it were fixed, no way the horse in question would ever pay that much...
PaceAdvantage is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-11-2010, 07:22 AM   #5
rmania
Registered User
 
rmania's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: San Diego, CA
Posts: 1,052
Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
Fixed? I would reason immediately that if it were fixed, no way the horse in question would ever pay that much...
I watched the race live over the internet and, since DMR doesn't show the odds during the race, I had no idea what the odds were on the top four finishers.

My initial reaction (fixed) had to do with they way the race was run. It was like everyone just stopped with an 1/8 of mile to go to let these 4 come in. I mean you had this group of four at the finish line and then a big gap back to the others Then, when I saw the prices, I just laughed.

When the chart became available I checked out the times and they were ridiculously slow (even for 7F) which further led me to believe it was fixed.

In my original post I tried not to focus on the winner, but the entire field because it was all whacky.
__________________
Alternative Handicapping Talk
rmania is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-11-2010, 11:26 AM   #6
SMOO
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 580
Quote:
Originally Posted by iwearpurple

I never ever totally dismiss a horse in their 2nd start.


I caught a $146 winner @ Calder a few years ago just betting that factor.
SMOO is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-11-2010, 11:56 AM   #7
johnhenry81
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 163
From what I have heard "fixes" or "boat races" usually have the finishers separated by daylight in a prescibed order so there is less chance they finish out of order. If this finish was planned, those riders had the precision of a Mohel in that blanket finish!
johnhenry81 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-11-2010, 12:25 PM   #8
rmania
Registered User
 
rmania's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: San Diego, CA
Posts: 1,052
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnhenry81
From what I have heard "fixes" or "boat races" usually have the finishers separated by daylight in a prescibed order so there is less chance they finish out of order. If this finish was planned, those riders had the precision of a Mohel in that blanket finish!
I don't really think it was fixed. Just my initial thought.. But if it was who's to say the fix had to be precise. I mean what does a 4 horse superfecta box cost? And what did it pay !!! As for the daylight mention.. well there was 4 1/2 lenghts of daylight between the 4th and 5th place finishers.
__________________
Alternative Handicapping Talk
rmania is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-11-2010, 12:33 PM   #9
skate
s.e. pa.
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: flag, az/hatfield, pa.
Posts: 5,122
Welp, not you, but many think of fix, when they lost, or jock, trainer, or whatever.

Man you did a good job when you went looking for THE REASON, didnt cover everything, nobody does, all the time.

But it would never be fixed, with such a high pay-out.
skate is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-11-2010, 01:28 PM   #10
kenwoodall2
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Still in Cali!
Posts: 677
You are the problem!

Quote:
Originally Posted by rmania
I don't really think it was fixed. Just my initial thought.. But if it was who's to say the fix had to be precise. I mean what does a 4 horse superfecta box cost? And what did it pay !!! As for the daylight mention.. well there was 4 1/2 lenghts of daylight between the 4th and 5th place finishers.
Bettors who cry "FIX" without realizing they are looking at the race and PP's wrong is the problem, and why battors "cannot win the races".
I say this for one reason- in your analysis, for all but 1 entry you use "last race" as a big factor. Some think a horse that just won 1-2- or 3 races in a row is not too tired to race well, when many of them need more rest.
I have not looked at the PPs or chart prior the above comment, but the chart shows the "monster horse" even $$$ was the only one who ran last at Pleasanton, the rest at SoCal- and the 1-1 fair horse carried 4 lbs more than any other and lost positions well before the finish- outclassed.
__________________
If you cannot control the bettors, control the law.

Last edited by kenwoodall2; 08-11-2010 at 01:37 PM.
kenwoodall2 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-11-2010, 01:43 PM   #11
kenwoodall2
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Still in Cali!
Posts: 677
M/L 9-5

M/L maker made the fair horse with penalty of 4lb 9-5, no other M/L lower than 5-1! The crowd bet the M/L! Ask if the M/L maker made a killing on the race!!LOL!! Anyone else think the M/L was fishy?
__________________
If you cannot control the bettors, control the law.
kenwoodall2 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-11-2010, 02:10 PM   #12
kenwoodall2
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Still in Cali!
Posts: 677
Changes

Besides a recent 50% class drop, the 9-5 M/L fav had 3 changes since last race: added 4lb, distance 1 1/16 to 7f, and dirt to AW synthetics, with only mid-rank last workout, and last workout was at Hol, not DM!
__________________
If you cannot control the bettors, control the law.
kenwoodall2 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-11-2010, 03:11 PM   #13
kenwoodall2
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Still in Cali!
Posts: 677
Z ran, utack bad?

Z ran the day prior, Aug 7, when the track was messed up in the AM (slowed for the closer?). Next day was this slow pace! Bye Bye early speed!
__________________
If you cannot control the bettors, control the law.
kenwoodall2 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-11-2010, 03:47 PM   #14
rmania
Registered User
 
rmania's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: San Diego, CA
Posts: 1,052
Quote:
Originally Posted by kenwoodall2
Bettors who cry "FIX" without realizing they are looking at the race and PP's wrong is the problem, and why battors "cannot win the races".
I say this for one reason- in your analysis, for all but 1 entry you use "last race" as a big factor. Some think a horse that just won 1-2- or 3 races in a row is not too tired to race well, when many of them need more rest.
I have not looked at the PPs or chart prior the above comment, but the chart shows the "monster horse" even $$$ was the only one who ran last at Pleasanton, the rest at SoCal- and the 1-1 fair horse carried 4 lbs more than any other and lost positions well before the finish- outclassed.
I don't want to agrue the point that the fav picked up 4 lbs (was really only 1 lb) or that he was a "fair horse" (was shiiped up north for that one race) or that he was outclassed (faced MdnALW in every race but one before Sun) or that I used last races as a big factor (I find that the best place to start).
What I did say was that his race before the PLN race was a clucker and that appeared to be the race he ran on Sunday.

If you can, watch the reply. It's pretty comical. Every horse on or near the lead came to almost a complete stop at the qtr pole. The jockeys on the closers (who all finished in the money) had to do a lot of quick manuvering to avoid running into the stopped horses. And four of the six jockeys on those dying horses didn't even ride their horses out.

And once again I do not belive the race was fixed. I guess I had just never witnessed anything like that.
__________________
Alternative Handicapping Talk
rmania is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-11-2010, 04:41 PM   #15
snoadog
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Canada
Posts: 51
replay

I was meaning to watch these live but was unable. At any rate I just now watched the replay. From the time they sorted themselves out after the gate till the end of the turn 1,5,7,9 were 4 abreast. As we know those 4 finished in the bottom half of the field. It has something to say about the speed duel/track bias, reguardless of the actual fractions set.
snoadog is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 06:18 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.