|
|
06-27-2010, 12:14 AM
|
#1
|
Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 1,128
|
Are you really good enough to pick winners?
Case in point.
Today, I hit 12 of 16 selections and made only a few dollars. ($5.10 to be exact).
These were show only wagers.
And guess what, 12 of them managed to show, accounting for my meager profit.
But NONE WON.
I defy you to try and pick that many show horses and fail to have one of them win!
Matter of fact, that 's the only thing wrong with betting to show. Oftentimes, quite of few of these wagers win, at nice prices. This is the test of a true show better. Can he plunge on, overlooking the winners?
senortout
|
|
|
06-27-2010, 12:18 AM
|
#2
|
Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: 1 hr away from Belmont
Posts: 890
|
How many cards did you play?
__________________
This is not gambling. This is just taking advantage of an extraordinary business opportunity. Jay Trotter
|
|
|
06-27-2010, 12:19 AM
|
#3
|
Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 1,128
|
Here they are!
|
|
|
06-27-2010, 12:37 AM
|
#4
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Toronto
Posts: 4,962
|
Wow.
That is really hard to do.
Wow.
|
|
|
06-27-2010, 12:38 AM
|
#5
|
Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: 1 hr away from Belmont
Posts: 890
|
You did better than me today. I played Monmouth for the first time in a long time. I took a stab at the pick 5. Had the winners of the last 2. 1 placed 1 3rd and 1 out. I singled 2 races. Caught a small exacta in the ninth and gave it back at Belmont & CD. I wasn't really feeling it today.
I figured I'd better stop before I hurt myself. Tomorrow is another day.
__________________
This is not gambling. This is just taking advantage of an extraordinary business opportunity. Jay Trotter
|
|
|
06-27-2010, 12:39 AM
|
#6
|
Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 3,208
|
I wouldn't bet to show.
Even if I made a show bet and the horse finishes in the money, I'd feel sick if the horse won because I knew I could have done better with a different bet.
Last edited by letswastemoney; 06-27-2010 at 12:40 AM.
|
|
|
06-27-2010, 01:02 AM
|
#7
|
Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 1,128
|
I have done most of the math. For my own betting this year, I have watched some nice win prices go down the drain, since I'd bet show only. However, I am money ahead for the year, comparing win only to show only. A whole lotta days, even when several win and pay nice mutuels, my show tickets add up to more $$$$$.
ps, I am not ahead for the year. Yet, I am losing less than had I bet these same horses to win. And, quite selectively, I do cash an inordinate % of place tickets on the rare occasion I use those instead of show. These are the tickets on horses which more often than not, win.
I do take the time to use a piece of scratch paper to jot down a one-liner about each starter. No computer based handicapping for me. I use the computer to wager and to watch the streaming live videos of each race. Sometimes I view the archived races of a horse or two which may be bothering me.
|
|
|
06-27-2010, 01:12 AM
|
#8
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 18,962
|
Betting Show = NO.
Quote:
Originally Posted by senortout
Case in point.
Today, I hit 12 of 16 selections and made only a few dollars. ($5.10 to be exact).
These were show only wagers.
And guess what, 12 of them managed to show, accounting for my meager profit.
But NONE WON.
I defy you to try and pick that many show horses and fail to have one of them win!
|
Try and pick that many show horses? Why would anyone even think or bet that way?
Good challenge, but one that only the lamest of bettors would accept.
Unless you are some type of a parlay player,
betting to Show is a total waste of time.
I bet win and place only, and of course associated exotics.
It's just that simple.
Show betting is a waste of money and time.
|
|
|
06-27-2010, 02:02 AM
|
#9
|
Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 25,607
|
I could pick plenty of winners, but the problem is that the racing secretaries arent doing such a great job of creating races that are competitive enough, which means everyone else is picking the same winners.
|
|
|
06-27-2010, 12:15 PM
|
#10
|
Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 1,128
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Greyfox
Try and pick that many show horses? Why would anyone even think or bet that way?
Good challenge, but one that only the lamest of bettors would accept.
Unless you are some type of a parlay player,
betting to Show is a total waste of time.
I bet win and place only, and of course associated exotics.
It's just that simple.
Show betting is a waste of money and time.
|
We do disagree on the value of show betting. However, you do know, or at least you should know, that I would never, ever bet a horse to show unless I thought it had an excellent chance of winning! And that, really was the only reason I posted this one. Yes, too, I have mulled over the parlay route a few times. Show ticket consecutive hits and length of the parlay are considerations that I have yet to deal with statistically.
Last edited by senortout; 06-27-2010 at 12:17 PM.
|
|
|
06-27-2010, 12:34 PM
|
#11
|
Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Still in Cali!
Posts: 677
|
Hard to do without winning
Good job! Only $5.00+? Any +ROI is a good one!
__________________
If you cannot control the bettors, control the law.
|
|
|
06-27-2010, 12:39 PM
|
#12
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 18,962
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by senortout
I would never, ever bet a horse to show unless I thought it had an excellent chance of winning! .
|
If a horse has an excellent chance of winning, why bet it to show? Just play more on win and place.
|
|
|
06-27-2010, 01:08 PM
|
#13
|
Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 531
|
may want to try 2 or 3 horse parlays
|
|
|
06-27-2010, 01:10 PM
|
#14
|
Registered User
Join Date: May 2009
Location: philadelphia
Posts: 928
|
Well, we all know the big problem with betting show: The breakage vs. the average payout is generally too high to overcome.
|
|
|
06-27-2010, 01:50 PM
|
#15
|
Racing Form Detective
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Lincoln, Ne but my heart is at Santa Anita
Posts: 16,316
|
That is the rub, plus you have no ideas of what the payout will be.
__________________
Some day in the not too distant future, horse players will betting on computer generated races over the net. Race tracks will become casinos and shopping centers. And some crooner will be belting out "there used to be a race track here".
|
|
|
|
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
|
|