Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Handicapping Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 06-27-2010, 12:14 AM   #1
senortout
Registered User
 
senortout's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 1,128
Are you really good enough to pick winners?

Case in point.

Today, I hit 12 of 16 selections and made only a few dollars. ($5.10 to be exact).

These were show only wagers.

And guess what, 12 of them managed to show, accounting for my meager profit.

But NONE WON.

I defy you to try and pick that many show horses and fail to have one of them win!

Matter of fact, that 's the only thing wrong with betting to show. Oftentimes, quite of few of these wagers win, at nice prices. This is the test of a true show better. Can he plunge on, overlooking the winners?

senortout
senortout is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 06-27-2010, 12:18 AM   #2
shouldacoulda
Registered User
 
shouldacoulda's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: 1 hr away from Belmont
Posts: 890
How many cards did you play?
__________________
This is not gambling. This is just taking advantage of an extraordinary business opportunity. Jay Trotter
shouldacoulda is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 06-27-2010, 12:19 AM   #3
senortout
Registered User
 
senortout's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 1,128
Here they are!

Attached Images
File Type: jpg Sat.June 27.JPG (66.6 KB, 299 views)
senortout is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 06-27-2010, 12:37 AM   #4
DeanT
Registered User
 
DeanT's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Toronto
Posts: 4,962
Wow.

That is really hard to do.

Wow.
DeanT is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 06-27-2010, 12:38 AM   #5
shouldacoulda
Registered User
 
shouldacoulda's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: 1 hr away from Belmont
Posts: 890
You did better than me today. I played Monmouth for the first time in a long time. I took a stab at the pick 5. Had the winners of the last 2. 1 placed 1 3rd and 1 out. I singled 2 races. Caught a small exacta in the ninth and gave it back at Belmont & CD. I wasn't really feeling it today.
I figured I'd better stop before I hurt myself. Tomorrow is another day.
__________________
This is not gambling. This is just taking advantage of an extraordinary business opportunity. Jay Trotter
shouldacoulda is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 06-27-2010, 12:39 AM   #6
letswastemoney
Registered User
 
letswastemoney's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 3,207
I wouldn't bet to show.

Even if I made a show bet and the horse finishes in the money, I'd feel sick if the horse won because I knew I could have done better with a different bet.

Last edited by letswastemoney; 06-27-2010 at 12:40 AM.
letswastemoney is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 06-27-2010, 01:02 AM   #7
senortout
Registered User
 
senortout's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 1,128
I have done most of the math. For my own betting this year, I have watched some nice win prices go down the drain, since I'd bet show only. However, I am money ahead for the year, comparing win only to show only. A whole lotta days, even when several win and pay nice mutuels, my show tickets add up to more $$$$$.

ps, I am not ahead for the year. Yet, I am losing less than had I bet these same horses to win. And, quite selectively, I do cash an inordinate % of place tickets on the rare occasion I use those instead of show. These are the tickets on horses which more often than not, win.

I do take the time to use a piece of scratch paper to jot down a one-liner about each starter. No computer based handicapping for me. I use the computer to wager and to watch the streaming live videos of each race. Sometimes I view the archived races of a horse or two which may be bothering me.
senortout is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 06-27-2010, 01:12 AM   #8
Greyfox
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 18,962
Betting Show = NO.

Quote:
Originally Posted by senortout
Case in point.

Today, I hit 12 of 16 selections and made only a few dollars. ($5.10 to be exact).

These were show only wagers.

And guess what, 12 of them managed to show, accounting for my meager profit.

But NONE WON.

I defy you to try and pick that many show horses and fail to have one of them win!
Try and pick that many show horses? Why would anyone even think or bet that way?
Good challenge, but one that only the lamest of bettors would accept.

Unless you are some type of a parlay player,
betting to Show is a total waste of time.

I bet win and place only, and of course associated exotics.
It's just that simple.
Show betting is a waste of money and time.
Greyfox is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 06-27-2010, 02:02 AM   #9
Stillriledup
Veteran
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 25,607
I could pick plenty of winners, but the problem is that the racing secretaries arent doing such a great job of creating races that are competitive enough, which means everyone else is picking the same winners.
Stillriledup is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 06-27-2010, 12:15 PM   #10
senortout
Registered User
 
senortout's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 1,128
Quote:
Originally Posted by Greyfox
Try and pick that many show horses? Why would anyone even think or bet that way?
Good challenge, but one that only the lamest of bettors would accept.

Unless you are some type of a parlay player,
betting to Show is a total waste of time.

I bet win and place only, and of course associated exotics.
It's just that simple.
Show betting is a waste of money and time.
We do disagree on the value of show betting. However, you do know, or at least you should know, that I would never, ever bet a horse to show unless I thought it had an excellent chance of winning! And that, really was the only reason I posted this one. Yes, too, I have mulled over the parlay route a few times. Show ticket consecutive hits and length of the parlay are considerations that I have yet to deal with statistically.

Last edited by senortout; 06-27-2010 at 12:17 PM.
senortout is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 06-27-2010, 12:34 PM   #11
kenwoodall2
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Still in Cali!
Posts: 677
Hard to do without winning

Good job! Only $5.00+? Any +ROI is a good one!
__________________
If you cannot control the bettors, control the law.
kenwoodall2 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 06-27-2010, 12:39 PM   #12
Greyfox
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 18,962
Quote:
Originally Posted by senortout
I would never, ever bet a horse to show unless I thought it had an excellent chance of winning! .
If a horse has an excellent chance of winning, why bet it to show? Just play more on win and place.
Greyfox is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 06-27-2010, 01:08 PM   #13
vegasone
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 525
may want to try 2 or 3 horse parlays
vegasone is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 06-27-2010, 01:10 PM   #14
markgoldie
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2009
Location: philadelphia
Posts: 928
Well, we all know the big problem with betting show: The breakage vs. the average payout is generally too high to overcome.
markgoldie is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 06-27-2010, 01:50 PM   #15
Robert Goren
Racing Form Detective
 
Robert Goren's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Lincoln, Ne but my heart is at Santa Anita
Posts: 16,316
That is the rub, plus you have no ideas of what the payout will be.
__________________
Some day in the not too distant future, horse players will betting on computer generated races over the net. Race tracks will become casinos and shopping centers. And some crooner will be belting out "there used to be a race track here".
Robert Goren is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 05:19 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.