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Old 09-17-2010, 12:02 PM   #61
Charlie D
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I read your post Thaskie,YOU made the correct move, but used your 25-1 as an example of races people should be passing.


Quote:
Like I said before...I have no interest in betting on the most likely winners...that's a trap, in my book.





Why would anyone NOT bet on horses that are falling into the most likely winners category???

Betting a 25-1 at 10-1 when horses are more likely to win is just as daft, YOUR 25-1 poke idealy needs to be the Fav, second fav or at a piush 3rd fav on YOUR line before betting it. If it is not - PASS the race.

Last edited by Charlie D; 09-17-2010 at 12:04 PM.
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Old 09-17-2010, 12:06 PM   #62
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
Like I said before...I have no interest in betting on the most likely winners...that's a trap, in my book.

.
Not always a trap.
The most likely winners should be bet, especially in horizontal bets. The "False Favorites" are the ones that you need to toss.
That's when Overlays really shine.
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Old 09-17-2010, 12:13 PM   #63
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Ok

Hore A is fav and a underlay, but still fav on your line. Horse B is an underlay but still 2nd fav to win on your line, horse C is an underlay, but still in 3rd fav to win the race on your line.


Horse D is 25-1, 14-1 but 10-1 on your line.



. Your horses claims are nowhere near as good A, B or C

This is a PASS race

Last edited by Charlie D; 09-17-2010 at 12:14 PM.
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Old 09-17-2010, 12:16 PM   #64
thaskalos
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Charlie D
I read your post Thaskie,YOU made the correct move, but used your 25-1 as an example of races people should be passing.








Why would anyone NOT bet on horses that are falling into the most likely winners category???

Betting a 25-1 at 10-1 when horses are more likely to win is just as daft, YOUR 25-1 poke idealy needs to be the Fav, second fav or at a piush 3rd fav on YOUR line before betting it.
Charlie...

The 25-1 shot was only an example that I used, to make a point about betting situations that I avoid...and yet, you refer to it in all your posts.

Forget about the 25-1 shot. It says nothing about the way I play.

YOU ASK: "Why would anyone NOT bet on horses that are falling into the most likely winners category?"

ANSWER: When the most probable winner is not going off at the "right" price - as far as our betting line is concerned - should he be bet to win?

What are we arguing about here? Even money shots to win?

Is this why you became such an advanced pace handicapper...and "match-up" enthusiast? In order to isolate on the even money shots?
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Old 09-17-2010, 12:18 PM   #65
thaskalos
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Greyfox
Not always a trap.
The most likely winners should be bet, especially in horizontal bets. The "False Favorites" are the ones that you need to toss.
That's when Overlays really shine.
Charlie and I were talking about WIN bets...not horizontal bets.
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Old 09-17-2010, 12:24 PM   #66
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos

YOU ASK: "Why would anyone NOT bet on horses that are falling into the most likely winners category?"

ANSWER: When the most probable winner is not going off at the "right" price - as far as our betting line is concerned - should he be bet to win?

Demonstrate what you mean here as i'm not quite sure what you saying



Quote:
Is this why you became such an advanced pace handicapper...and "match-up" enthusiast? In order to isolate on the even money shots?

Even allowing for the smiley. Why you make this comment is beyond me. I'm trying to show you what i think is an error in thinking not take pee out of you or anyone else.

Last edited by Charlie D; 09-17-2010 at 12:27 PM.
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Old 09-17-2010, 12:25 PM   #67
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Charlie D
Ok

Hore A is fav and a underlay, but still fav on your line. Horse B is an underlay but still 2nd fav to win on your line, horse C is an underlay, but still in 3rd fav to win the race on your line.


Horse D is 25-1, 14-1 but 10-1 on your line.



. Your horses claims are nowhere near as good A, B or C

This is a PASS race
This is not where we disagree Charlie...

We were talking about betting even money horses to win...and I said that I refuse to do it. I never said that I would bet on another horse in a race where an even money standout is running.

I REFUSE TO BET EVEN MONEY HORSES TO WIN...EVER!

It doesn't fit with my philosophy of how this game should be played.

With over 100 races available to me on a daily basis...why would I be interested in bets like these?
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Old 09-17-2010, 12:30 PM   #68
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos


I REFUSE TO BET EVEN MONEY HORSES TO WIN...EVER!
Fine, thats your choice, but that does not mean it's the correct approach does it??

Last edited by Charlie D; 09-17-2010 at 12:32 PM.
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Old 09-17-2010, 12:34 PM   #69
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Charlie D
Demonstrate what you mean here as i'm not quite sure what you saying






Even allowing for the smiley. Why you make this comment is beyond me. I'm trying to show you what i think is an error in thinking not take pee out of you or anyone else.
Charlie...I don't mean to offend.

I am just telling you that, to me, even money horses are no bargain...except in very rare cases. You are welcome to disagree with me...differences of opinion are what this game is all about.

But you keep insisting on showing me the error of my ways.

The game is very chaotic...and we should be adequately compensated for the risks that we take.

IMO...betting on even money shots is "taking the worst of it", except, as I said, for some very rare cases.
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Old 09-17-2010, 12:41 PM   #70
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Quote:
even money horses are no bargain...except in very rare cases
Utter rubbish, next you'll be telling us 6-5, 2-1, 3-1 shots are no bargain too.

Last edited by Charlie D; 09-17-2010 at 12:43 PM.
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Old 09-17-2010, 12:47 PM   #71
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Originally Posted by Charlie D
Utter rubbish, next you'll be telling us 6-5, 2-1, 3-1 shots are no bargain too.
Sorry Charlie...I should have known better than to disagree with a betting expert such as you...

I have only been playing this game for 30 years...I never claimed to know everything...
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Old 09-17-2010, 12:48 PM   #72
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A 3-2 that should be even money is just as good a bet as a 15-1 that should be 10-1.
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Old 09-17-2010, 12:51 PM   #73
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
Sorry Charlie...I should have known better than to disagree with a betting expert such as you...

I have only been playing this game for 30 years...I never claimed to know everything...

See, there you go again, Why is it when people don't like what i say they resort to this kind of BS


Evens money shots win around 54% in UK and i would guess the rate is similar in US so saying this

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even money horses are no bargain...except in very rare cases

Is utter rubbish as stated imho.
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Old 09-17-2010, 12:57 PM   #74
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SMOO
A 3-2 that should be even money is just as good a bet as a 15-1 that should be 10-1.

Thats probably a bit tight Smoo, but the point your making is correct imho
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Old 09-17-2010, 12:59 PM   #75
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Charlie D
See, there you go again, Why is it when people don't like what i say they resort to this kind of BS


Evens money shots win around 54% in UK and i would guess the rate is similar in US so saying this




Is utter rubbish as stated imho.
When you say "there you go again" to me...what does it mean?

When have I EVER gotten into an argument with you?

I would NEVER consider calling your opinion RUBBISH Charlie...because I know nothing about you, or your handicapping prowess.

By calling my opinion "rubbish"...YOU are disrespecting ME. And yet...you spin it around as if it is ME who has insulted YOU!

Nobody in this game has it all figured out...and if you think that even money shots win 54% of the time in the USA...then you have a lot to learn about this game.

Last edited by thaskalos; 09-17-2010 at 01:01 PM.
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