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Old 06-27-2010, 07:09 PM   #31
Learned Hand35
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Originally Posted by ddog
I know one thing, when you look at stats on MNR v all other "major" tracks , the ratio of real good looking dirt LOSERS is outside of normal expectation.

Maybe it's bad bad horses peaking or maybe................

Check it out for yourself in the last 30-60 days.

P.S. i didn't have to stop playing it as I never started.
I keep on saying I am never going to bet that BS circus again, yet I still give them a bit of money every week (Mon and/or Tues). I obviously have not learned discipline yet.

Bush league boat racing...
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Old 06-27-2010, 07:20 PM   #32
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I will look at their horses shipping out of there and have hit a nice one or two over the years, however I have not this year payed much mind to that either.


2 bucks saved from the MTN "group" is like 4 bucks made to me!

I can just picture some of those trainers laughing at the rubes playing via simo.
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Old 06-27-2010, 07:22 PM   #33
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the proper term is NOW bama league boat racing!
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Old 06-28-2010, 01:12 PM   #34
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Originally Posted by InTheRiver68
Net pool pricing has a much bigger effect than 10c or 20c profit for bet-againsters. It's more like 60c or $1.20 or more profit.

My point is that the favorite only runs out of the money, what, once out of every 15 or 20 or 30 times? While you're waiting for that race, while you're betting on races where the bomb comes in the money, you still have to preserve your capital. Even if you only bet one horse to show (against the odds-on favorite), sometimes that horse runs out and you've got nothing to show for it. The times that it's IN the money, even with the odds-on favorite, you need to pick up that extra few bucks.

Net pool pricing favors the bet-againster.

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Old 06-28-2010, 02:28 PM   #35
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Originally Posted by lamboguy

because if you look at those races with the big money on them the rest of the horses in the races all have higher than expected amounts on them too.
Higher than expected because their odds are higher, maybe.
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Old 06-28-2010, 04:48 PM   #36
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Originally Posted by garyscpa
The reason it's more important for the bridgejumper is that it doubles his return.
No, it doesn't. Net pool pricing has no effect vs. standard pricing for the classic bridgejumper. (That is, for the guy putting $50k to show on a horse ... for the bet-againster, I've already shown that net pool pricing is a huge positive.)

The bridgejumper doesn't *care* whether the other horses are being bet on. He doesn't even care whether someone is following after him with another $50k or $250k on his horse. His only criterion for betting on the odds-on favorite is, is a 5% return (or 10% at certain tracks) worth the risk that this horse will run out of the money? No other factor matters.

Yes, once in an extraordinary blue moon, standard pricing will produce a $2.20 show price (at a $2.10 track), where net pool pricing wouldn't. But for that to happen, the size of the show wager the bridgejumper placed would have to be small compared to the total pool size ... and then that wouldn't be bridgejumping, would it?

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Old 06-28-2010, 07:45 PM   #37
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I think I'm confusing net pool pricing with $2.20 minimum pays. I don't know where I got that idea.
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Old 06-28-2010, 10:12 PM   #38
InTheRiver68
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Originally Posted by garyscpa
I think I'm confusing net pool pricing with $2.20 minimum pays. I don't know where I got that idea.
Ah.

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