2yr/10yr Treasuries Inverted for First Time in 12 Years

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by barn32

The 2yr/10yr are now inverted by 3 bps. And the 3mo/30yr just inverted as well by a little over 1 bps.

So barnie, what's your prediction? And how long until it happens? I've been thinking the last couple years, that with social media, and instant information available, that a lot of these events are already priced in, or happen before the events are officially announced.

[barn32]

Originally Posted by Whosonfirst

So barnie, what's your prediction? And how long until it happens?

To be perfectly honest, this is my first real introduction to inverted yield curves. Past inversions were just not on my radar screen.

Don't the markets usually, by about 6 months or so, precede the actual events? Recessions that is.

In short, I have no idea what is going to happen or when. I do know that there will be a recession eventually and everyone will blame everyone else when it finally does occur, but to my way of thinking it isn't really anyone's fault, per se, but it is simply a market dynamic that will always occur eventually in a capitalist environment.

When things get overheated they have to cool off.

So, to sum up, your guess is as good as mine.

I just take it day by day.

[barn32]

A recession is two consecutive quarters of negative growth. I don't see one-quarter of negative growth on the horizon anytime soon let alone two.

That being said, "When the spread between 3 month Treasury bonds and 10 year Treasury bonds goes negative for at least three months, we have a recession 100% of the time..."

[Saratoga_Mike]

Weekly initial jobless claims were 204k today, down from 219k last week. While the yield curve is a better leading indicator (longer lead time), weekly claims are a decent leading indicator. To date, weekly claims are not capturing any true economic weakness, despite weaker manufacturing numbers (e.g., ISM survey results). 1s/10s are still inverted, while 2s/10s have un-inverted.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by Saratoga_Mike

Weekly initial jobless claims were 204k today, down from 219k last week. While the yield curve is a better leading indicator (longer lead time), weekly claims are a decent leading indicator. To date, weekly claims are not capturing any true economic weakness, despite weaker manufacturing numbers (e.g., ISM survey results). 1s/10s are still inverted, while 2s/10s have un-inverted.

i have it the same way you do. i really see upside for the next year and a half to 2 years.