Thoughts on Maiden Win / Bounce Plays?

[cj]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Your MWBR angle needs to be refined to exclude the maiden-claimer winners. When a maiden claimer gets trounced in its first race against winners...it isn't because the horse "bounced". It's because the maiden claimers bear no resemblance to the regular claimers of the same dollar denomination.

A $10,000 maiden claimer wins its race while earning a comparatively-impressive speed figure...and the trainer, getting encouraged by the performance, enters the horse against $10,000 straight claimers next out. I don't care what the speed figures say, this horse is going to get TROUNCED next race...and the "bounce" factor has nothing to do with it. The maiden-claiming winners are totally incapable of reproducing the figures that they've run in the maiden-claimers, when they step up to face the horses who have been competing in straight-claimers. They need a steep drop in class in order to continue to compete effectively.

Pretty rare one of these shows up against straight claimers these days. The jump to NW2 isn't nearly as steep.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by cj

Pretty rare one of these shows up against straight claimers these days. The jump to NW2 isn't nearly as steep.

They need a 50% drop in class even in the NW2 races, IMO.

[cj]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

They need a 50% drop in class even in the NW2 races, IMO.

I'll test that out and get back to you. That used to be conventional wisdom for straight claimers, seems a bit steep for NW2.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by cj

I'll test that out and get back to you. That used to be conventional wisdom for straight claimers, seems a bit steep for NW2.

Would you please separate the sprints from the routes? I've always wondered what the distance difference is in this aspect.

[jay68802]

I will play horses like this as long as they pressed a high pace in the maiden win. No wire to wire winners. And then in the next race they have to finish in the top half of the field and were less than 6 lengths from the lead at the finish, minimum odds of 7-1.

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by cj

I'll test that out and get back to you. That used to be conventional wisdom for straight claimers, seems a bit steep for NW2.

I believe it was Ainsle or Frank George that said to take 75% of Mdn claimer for his value in claimers. If a Big Win then full value may be ok. I think since that time Thask's 50% is more in line.

[FlintAtTheFetlock]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Your MWBR angle needs to be refined to exclude the maiden-claimer winners. When a maiden claimer gets trounced in its first race against winners...it isn't because the horse "bounced". It's because the maiden claimers bear no resemblance to the regular claimers of the same dollar denomination.

A $10,000 maiden claimer wins its race while earning a comparatively-impressive speed figure...and the trainer, getting encouraged by the performance, enters the horse against $10,000 straight claimers next out. I don't care what the speed figures say, this horse is going to get TROUNCED next race...and the "bounce" factor has nothing to do with it. The maiden-claiming winners are totally incapable of reproducing the figures that they've run in the maiden-claimers, when they step up to face the horses who have been competing in straight-claimers. They need a steep drop in class in order to continue to compete effectively.

This is very helpful. I have some homework to do on class handicapping when at the MC level. It looked to me like the natural progression from MC12500 to cl12500N2L. She got play at 7-2 and when the speed figure dropped from 80 to 67, I knee jerk bounce, but you are saying the low fig is to be expected due to the competition? Please elaborate. The horse obviously failed to 'rebound' so I made a bad play. Thanks much.

PS: Any other 'no no's' on this angle? MWBR