Discussing Friday's Breeders Cup card

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by The Biscuit

1.BEST PERFORMANCE - 12/1 ML, More of a price to hit the board than a win contender. Two back ran slightly against the grain. Last time ran nearly as well as the Chad Brown filly. As far as win/multis I have her rated an 'X' (unlikely)


Feel lasix should boost her chances ... bit under the radar

Trainer Clement 20/24 ITM with 2 year olds on turf ... problem is he is usually a no show in BC races I think ?


Appreciate the breakdown bro ... it helps !!!!

I'm very tempted to couple her with the #3 NYT in key underneath somehow.

rough example
exacta A'sBsCs over the
$.50c Tri A'sB's/A'sBsCs/
$.10c Spr A'sB's/A'sBsCs/AllorMost/

[Immortal6]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Mor Spirit is another 'layoff' horse. Serling mentioned some workout issues following the Met (as opposed to the long intentional layoff Baffert pulled w/ Arrogate out of the Travers last year). That's another one where if you're right, you get instant value. (or if you're wrong you get instant karma )

I'm all over Sharp Azteca in the mile. Mor Spirit's performance in the Met was absolutely breath taking but I'm fading off that long layoff. I'm hoping for at least 5-1, the Baffert horses and The Joker will take a lot of money I believe. Accelerate seems to be the horse for the course in that race and gives me pause on keying SA on top. I also think Battle of Midway could surprise for a piece. While he didn't beat a great group in his only showing at Del Mar I still thought it was a very impressive win visually.

[Robert Fischer]

Have to switch ENCUMBERED to a 'C' (unlikely unknown). After watching his last Turf try, and recent work, I can see that this is a solid horse. Probably more of a hit-the-board price for underneath, but this is a big price.

Gonna go ahead and switch HEMP HEMP HURRAY to a 'C' (unlikely unknown). I liked his work with Ultima D. Ultima D actually waited on him a bit, but my emphasis here involves the fact that he demonstrated some style in this work. Should drift up in price, and like I said, this one bothers me.

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

9. ENCUMBERED - 15/1 ML, Seems to be outclassed here. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'X' (unlikely)

12. HEMP HEMP HURRAY - 8/1 ML, This horse bothers me. I'm tempted to call this one an unlikely-unknown 'c'. Only thing I don't love is his [need to press the pace, and that he has] come from sprints. Deeper waters. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'X' (unlikely)

[azeri98]

I have watched the 2 racing days at Del Mar, so far if you are not close to the pace in dirt races you have no chance

[Redboard]

Originally Posted by azeri98

I have watched the 2 racing days at Del Mar, so far if you are not close to the pace in dirt races you have no chance

How's the turf course treating speed horses?

[Parkview_Pirate]

Race 1: no opinion

Race 2: Looks wide open. Lean Record Highs as dangerous, if he can put away the other speed in the race without too much effort. Will probably be about 5-1. Like Temple Keys closing late to pick up a slice.

Race 3: # Mesa Sky (clever name) (well, not really)

Race 4: no opinion

Race 5: Hmm. Tough. Looks chalky. Maybe Dressed In Hermes. Has the look of a plug who might like 14 furlongs. Sentimental about Archanova, as his win last year at Kee at 43-1 got me in the NHC, but 4-1 an iffy price.

Race 6: Happily romps at 2-1. Wide open after that, so tri and super might pay okay. Leaning 4-5-9-13-14 with chances.

Race 7: Mor Spirit looks tough, likes to win at odds-on. Should be 7-5. Bet this plug in the Derby last year, and he took the scenic route out of the 17 hole. Maybe Accelerate gives him a run for his money.

Race 8: Very interesting race. Can make a case for most of them. Looks like a race to wheel "ALL" in a pick 3, and an extra ticket with horses below 10-1. Lean Untamed Dolphin as my top choice.

Race 9: Looks chalky, as usual. Might try to get Paradise Woods there, if she looks okay on the track and goes off at at least 6-1.

Race 10: Like Long Hot Summer on top, but a pretty competitive and chalky looking race. Gonna maybe see if longer shots Instant Reflex and Little Jude can be in the tri.

Not a bad card, though nothing at a price gets me too excited.

I predict no rain, the pick 6 doesn't carry over, and I make $57 profit.

Saturday's card of course looks awesome, though the Classic looks like a toss up between chalks Arrogate and Gun Runner. Will probably take West Coast to beat them, but wouldn't be shocked if Aidan O'Brien sneaks one of those 3YOs (War Decree, Churchill) into the mix.

[Redboard]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

1.BEST PERFORMANCE - 12/1 ML, More of a price to hit the board than a win contender. Two back ran slightly against the grain. Last time ran nearly as well as the Chad Brown filly. As far as win/multis I have her rated an 'X' (unlikely)

2.HAPPILY - 9/2 ML, Strong record. Looked good visually last time in the French race. The only question I can even come up with is whether she will like a harder surface. As far as win/multis I have her rated an 'A' (win contender).

3.NOW YOU'RE TALKING - 30/1 ML, Looks like a tremendous value. She will love the mile distance. Probably wants to run counter clockwise(not a major factor in my decision, but could be a nice bonus). As far as win/multis I have her rated an 'B' (needs favorable trip). Tempted to key in vertical exotics.

4.MADELINE - 20/1 ML, Love that she's stretching out to a mile in the US at a big price. She's not as good as NOW YOU'RE TALKING, but she's also a good value. As far as win/multis I have her rated a 'C' (unlikely unknown).

5.ULTIMA D - 12/1 ML, Big step up in class. As far as win/multis I have her rated an 'X' (unlikely)

6.ORBULUTION - 20/1 ML, Shouldn't be in the race. As far as win/multis I have her rated an 'X' (unlikely)

7.CAPLA TEMPTRESS - 6/1 ML, Short on value if ml is true. As far as win/multis I have her rated an 'X' (unlikely) Would include underneath on coverage verticals.

8.SIGNIFICANT FORM - 8/1 ML, Solid horse from a top barn. As far as win/multis I have her rated a 'B' (needs favorable trip).

9.FATALE BERE - 9/1 ML, All out to win minor stake last time. As far as win/multis I have her rated an 'X' (unlikely)

10.SEPTEMBER - 6/1 ML, Solid horse from a top barn. As far as win/multis I have her rated a 'B' (needs favorable trip).

11.RUSHING FALL - 7/2 ML, Good kick @ Kee. Probably Brown's 'a' horse. As far as win/multis I have her rated an 'A' (win contender).

12.DIXIE MOON - 20/1 ML, Looks to be outclassed. As far as win/multis I have her rated an 'X' (unlikely)

13.JULIET CAPULET - 12/1 ML, She will be a fair price and is a little bit scary. As far as win/multis I have her rated a 'C' (unlikely unknown).

14.MOON DASH - 15/1 ML, Looks to be outclassed. As far as win/multis I have her rated an 'X' (unlikely)

two 'a's , three 'b's, and two 'c's... This is a deep race.

Agree with your two A's . Nobody is going to beat both of those fillies.

The question here is who's going to be third & fourth. I would move BEST PERFORMANCE up to a B , with the first time lasix angle.

[jocko699]

Originally Posted by Redboard

How's the turf course treating speed horses?

They have raced the last 2 days 30-feet from the rail, tomorrow and Saturday will be at 0-feet. That being said it will take a "monstrous" effort to win on the front end. Highland Reel will have a difficult trip if he does not rate IMO.

[azeri98]

Originally Posted by Redboard

How's the turf course treating speed horses?

Wednesday speed on the turf held, today it didn't

[GMB@BP]

Turf course has played like it always does, you go to fast closers will likely win, set a moderate pace and you will likely win.

While I do agree that front end horses have had an advantage I would caution that the winners have figured for the most part and its not like we have seen burning duels and some 20/1 shot go on with it.

I dont think closing from the clouds will work, but it never really has at del mar, and certainly did not this summer. The times are much faster.

[GMB@BP]

I really dont get much out of the Friday BC card usually.

I am not great at figuring out which 2yo grass horses is talented and will trip out among 14 entrants....a marathon race that really has no handicapping value.

I do like the two dirt races but the multis are dead to me.

[Afleet]

Watched Masar's races and wasn't that impressed

[maliksealy210]

Originally Posted by azeri98

I have watched the 2 racing days at Del Mar, so far if you are not close to the pace in dirt races you have no chance

It is amazing to watch race after race there with such strung out fields. They could run an 870 race and the winner would be in front by 15 lengths the way the track seems to be playing.

[linrom1]

P-4 Comments
Key Players

Race 6
September should like the firmer turf
Significant Form overpowered Rymska in a workout

Race 7
Accelerate, towers over this field
Awesome Slew, the horse is turning into a real good runner

Race 8
Mendelssohn is entered in this race to win. THIS IS NOT a horse bred for dirt like many experts are claiming because he is half to Beholder, so what?

Race 9
Stellar Wind is no match for the rest

[plainolebill]

#1 Best Performance started from the 8 hole in the Miss Grillo - I don't bet NY tracks often but IIRC outside posts in routes on the inner turf are disadvantaged - is that correct?