Tweaking Your Game

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

Do you want to know where you're making a profit, even though you've shown overall losses for the last few years? Check your records lately? Do you even keep records?

This may help you spot where your strengths/profits lie:

#1. Breakdown all your plays into 3 categories, Layoff horses(including first-time starters), second/third race from a layoff, and current condition horses.

#2. Now breakdown those categories into different tracks, then surface, sprints or routes, Class- Alw or above, claimers, maidens/mdclm, post-time odds and results. Optional- Blinks on/off and first-time Lasix.

#3. Once you keep these kind of records for at least 3 years, I guarantee you will find where the profit is in your game. It will also show you if you need to totally scrap your game and find something else to do with your time and money.

Are you UP for doing the work and finding out the truth about your game?......BTW, keep records in the order I specified above, #1 is what makes all the difference if done first.

All of this is solved by price. After 10-20 years of playing you know once you spot a horse you think has the ability to win the race yes the question is will they duplicate that race today? But if the horse is 8/5 or 5-1 you have protocol to act on. Even if backed by more positive stats I'm not betting the 8/5 shot. Every race I look at it usually comes down to 2 horses, rarely 1 or 3. Tracking those contenders they win about the same % of races. This year for me 28% each. I rarely split hairs on the 2 unless they are both 4-1 or better. I just bet the unplayed horse. My average mutuel has gone from a 12 year 9.40 to 12.50. Just by tweaking how I was looking at why to bet horse A versus horse B. You have to assume the good handicapping like you are doing is there. Price is what separates relative equals. That's the tweak!

[lamboy]

my biggest tweak has been to tighten up my psychological make-up. Trade Mindfully by Dayton is an excellent read for those who understand the financial markets.

[JohnGalt1]

I make a class, form and pace/speed rating.

While the first and last items are obviously important, I ignored or downgraded the importance of form.

Many times I would play a horse that is in the top 3 in class and speed off a lay off with only a slow 4 f workout in the last 2 months, and when the horse lost to a slower and or less classy horse, but had no negative form factors, it took too long for the light to go on.

It's a 3 leg stool and each leg is almost equally important.

And that's increased my win %.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by JohnGalt1

I make a class, form and pace/speed rating.

While the first and last items are obviously important, I ignored or downgraded the importance of form.

Many times I would play a horse that is in the top 3 in class and speed off a lay off with only a slow 4 f workout in the last 2 months, and when the horse lost to a slower and or less classy horse, but had no negative form factors, it took too long for the light to go on.

It's a 3 leg stool and each leg is almost equally important.

And that's increased my win %.

After a certain point don't you think your handicapping ability remains static and your win % roughly the same? I think there is less to gain in increased win % than there is in better decision making. I provided a common statistical reality above but a different selection strategy and it has meant a 33% avg mutuel increase. All the exotics file suit. Over time I think we all become better handicappers. Winning better and more and not necessarily more often is easily in reach.

[JohnGalt1]

Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer

After a certain point don't you think your handicapping ability remains static and your win % roughly the same? I think there is less to gain in increased win % than there is in better decision making. I provided a common statistical reality above but a different selection strategy and it has meant a 33% avg mutuel increase. All the exotics file suit. Over time I think we all become better handicappers. Winning better and more and not necessarily more often is easily in reach.

I agree.

I do my handicapping by hand with pen and paper.

First I rank horses for running style.

Then I do my class rating for all horses, then the three letter form factor rating, finally a pace/speed rating.

After doing my work, the winner is there, or not.

And I was not recognizing and selecting the correct bets-- even according to my method.

So you are right that my decision making was off because I was to often using only 2 legs of my handicapping stool.

So now my win % has improved to what it used to be.

[Robert Fischer]

Problem: Inefficient translation of opinion-->wager

Solutions:

• develop and familiarize wager templates for common scenarios
• consider Einstein's Razor ("...as simple as possible, but no simpler.") Start with 'Win'(simplicity) and work your way outward(towards complexity) when absolutely necessary.
• make a value appraisal for each potentially-betable opinion, and be willing to 'fold' a great opinion if the value isn't significant

Problem: Mental Mistakes

Solutions:

• beware of mental pitfalls such as: deprival superreaction tendency (chasing losses), man w/ hammer bias (seeing what you want, rather than objective reality), action/compulsion/boredom (spend that energy on aware preparation), results-oriented bias (get your dopamine-high from masterful 'process', never from a single result outcome.)

[zerosky]

My tweak is 'Don't Tweak a winning system"
The number of times I would be be showing a consistent profit only to 'Tweak' the system to extract more juice, then watch as the profits disappeared. Now I handicap the exact same way every time and it has turned my game around.If I do want to mess around with various other factors I do it outside the system and would only consider incorporating it, if my profits vanished.

[ultracapper]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Problem: Inefficient translation of opinion-->wager

Solutions:

• develop and familiarize wager templates for common scenarios
• consider Einstein's Razor ("...as simple as possible, but no simpler.") Start with 'Win'(simplicity) and work your way outward(towards complexity) when absolutely necessary.
• make a value appraisal for each potentially-betable opinion, and be willing to 'fold' a great opinion if the value isn't significant

Problem: Mental Mistakes

Solutions:

• beware of mental pitfalls such as: deprival superreaction tendency (chasing losses), man w/ hammer bias (seeing what you want, rather than objective reality), action/compulsion/boredom (spend that energy on aware preparation), results-oriented bias (get your dopamine-high from masterful 'process', never from a single result outcome.)

Just printed, enlarged, and taped the highlighted material to my cabinet door. Out-freaking-standing.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by ultracapper

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Just printed, enlarged, and taped the highlighted material to my cabinet door. Out-freaking-standing.

The mental game is very important.

My brain's computer works fine for handicapping, but when it comes to overcoming a 17% Takeout, by way of selective, rational gambling, - not so much.

horseplaying, investing, business, etc... all must conquer psychological biases.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

The mental game is very important.

My brain's computer works fine for handicapping, but when it comes to overcoming a 17% Takeout, by way of selective, rational gambling, - not so much.

horseplaying, investing, business, etc... all must conquer psychological biases.

Robert I get a lot out of your posts and have for a long time. Real deal brother! Had to chime in also.

[ultracapper]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

The mental game is very important.

My brain's computer works fine for handicapping, but when it comes to overcoming a 17% Takeout, by way of selective, rational gambling, - not so much.

horseplaying, investing, business, etc... all must conquer psychological biases.

I understand fully the items you itemized, but the beauty of the post is the clinical terms you gave to each. It gives each challenge a depth that just saying "Don't chase your losses" fails to deliver. Saying "I love the process of handicapping but it's nothing like the thrill of winning" just doesn't speak to the heart of the issue the way "results-oriented bias" does. Your post made it clear that it's not personal weaknesses we're dealing with when we lose our discipline, for instance. It's real challenges in the way our brains work that makes the mental part of this game such a challenge.

You really have to be honest with yourself, and honest with the data, to master this game. Your post touched on this profoundly.

Agree with Cincy. Your contributions are better than the average, and appreciated.

[betovernetcapper]

One day I was playing Delaware and the announcer made a compelling case for 8 of the horses in an 8 horse field. I suddenly started to notice the messages coming from the announcers before the races & a lot of it was more noise than signal. Messages like "better hurry, only 10 minutes to get in your pic 6 tickets where we have a $100,000 carry over pool" aren't really helpful. Much of what is broadcast from the track is designed to get you to bet more. Even the background music is set to sort of stimulate you. At one Japan Race they were playing war drums. The stuff they broadcast is designed to make you carless with your money.
Having said the above, I'll acknowledge that there is some good information
that is broadcast from time to time but I find it difficult to separate it from all the hype.
My solution is to turn of the sound between the races & play soothing nature sounds on YouTube. Since adopting this Zen like practice my game has gone up a good 10%.
Your results may vary.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by betovernetcapper

My solution is to turn of the sound between the races & play soothing nature sounds on YouTube. Since adopting this Zen like practice my game has gone up a good 10%.
Your results may vary.

Steely Dan or Dave Brubeck works for me....

[ultracapper]

If I could suggest one tweak that I have made that could help every player, regardless of how they handicap, or how much time and effort they put into handicapping, it would be this.

Approach handicapping each race as if it has already been run and the winner already determined. Then look at all your info, whether tidbits you've picked up out of the noise, whether from the printed page, or from calculations derived from raw data, or from visual input, and ask, "Why did this horse win?" 10 horse field, ask 10 times, Why did this horse win? Not, why might it, or how could it, or any kind of prediction statements. Use past presence statements. We do it all the time after the race is run, so just assume the race has already been run, and see which reason you give for the horse already winning makes the most sense. It's hardly the holy grail of handicapping, but it's something we already do. Just change the timing of doing it.

Just another way to look at it.

[dav4463]

Originally Posted by ultracapper

If I could suggest one tweak that I have made that could help every player, regardless of how they handicap, or how much time and effort they put into handicapping, it would be this.

Approach handicapping each race as if it has already been run and the winner already determined. Then look at all your info, whether tidbits you've picked up out of the noise, whether from the printed page, or from calculations derived from raw data, or from visual input, and ask, "Why did this horse win?" 10 horse field, ask 10 times, Why did this horse win? Not, why might it, or how could it, or any kind of prediction statements. Use past presence statements. We do it all the time after the race is run, so just assume the race has already been run, and see which reason you give for the horse already winning makes the most sense. It's hardly the holy grail of handicapping, but it's something we already do. Just change the timing of doing it.

Just another way to look at it.

Great post!

I find that when I can make a really good case for over half the field...it's time to pass the race.

I like to start with the top 3 m/l favorites and eliminate one of them. Then I try to make a case for each of the other horses to beat those top two. If I find too many, I pass. If I really like one or two....then I usually have a play.