Betting Strategy: Always Dreaming

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by AirNate012

We're we watching the same race? In the walkover Casse clearly said that they were worried and wanted to get Classic Empire down on the rail because it was hot...not to mention the outrider telling Johnny V after the race that he "told him" the rail was the place to be.

casse was clearly wrong and didn't know wtf he was talking about. if the rail was the place to be there would have been horses on it taking the shortest distance to the winner circle. instead of avoiding it

[Julz]

I saw the same thing. He apparently didn't listen very well. In any event, no matter what the horse, I could never bet a horse at 4/5 at parx or Mahoning, let alone the Preakness. You can get those odds every day, every race....at finger lakes.

[AirNate012]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

casse was clearly wrong and didn't know wtf he was talking about. if the rail was the place to be there would have been horses on it taking the shortest distance to the winner circle. instead of avoiding it

Like Laneries "Bo Rail" ride on Lookin at Lee?

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

What he said...


In addition tho Lookin At Lee will have less distance and less pace to run at. The Preakness is not closer friendly. Although he is solid his derby was his peak.

hey,..you could bet whoever you want to bet. but to leave out LoL and playing the other 3 makes no sense to me since it's only a few extra dollars and little separate them..

it may not matter anyway as none of the closers appear to have much of a chance in what should be a paceless preakness...

AD might pike them, and CMM really doesn't have to be on the lead either. that's it..that's your preakness speed....good luck gunny.

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by AirNate012

Like Laneries "Bo Rail" ride on Lookin at Lee?

it's different w/ LoL....he had no choice but to shoot up the rail for better or for worse. his finish was even more impressive because of it...regardless if he got a great trip

no jock wanted near the rail. i won't even debate this anymore

[Julz]

If you think there is no pace, you must not follow horse racing. This group is going 22 and 45, which will cook AD. It's either classic empire or Gunnevera mowing them down. Gunnevera needs no luck in this one.

[PowerUpPaynter]

Originally Posted by Julz

If you think there is no pace, you must not follow horse racing. This group is going 22 and 45, which will cook AD. It's either classic empire or Gunnevera mowing them down. Gunnevera needs no luck in this one.

ummm huh?

what group is on the front end?

[AirNate012]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

it's different w/ LoL....he had no choice but to shoot up the rail for better or for worse. his finish was even more impressive because of it...regardless if he got a great trip

no jock wanted near the rail. i won't even debate this anymore

There were 3 horses in the race that were 1 wide around both turns....AD, LAL, and Fast and Accurate (who never had a chance to begin with)...Staying on the rail apparently wasn't a bad thing.

[dilanesp]

Most of the Derby/Preakness winners had perfect or close to perfect trips in the Derby. American Pharoah, California Chrome, I'll Have Another, Big Brown, Smarty Jones, Funny Cide, War Emblem, Charismatic, Real Quiet, and Silver Charm all had pretty close to perfect Derby trips. Sunday Silence and Alysheba had some trouble.

This shouldn't surprise anyone. The best way to win the Derby and Preakness is to have enough tactical speed to seize control of a middle distance race. Horses with this style tend to get good trips, unless they get forced into a pressured pace (such as Nyquist did last year, or American Pharoah in the Travers).

I think bettors routinely betting against Derby winners in the Preakness on the grounds that the Derby winner got a perfect trip and without regard to the preps and whether said horse was actually a top-class horse going in have probably lost pretty big betting the Preakness over the years.

(OTOH, such horses rarely win the Belmont.)

[Julz]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

ummm huh?

what group is on the front end?

I think AD, conquest, cloud computing, term of art- battle up front. I do think there is going to be a meltdown up front. Much more so than in the derby.

[PowerUpPaynter]

Originally Posted by Julz

I think AD, conquest, cloud computing, term of art- battle up front. I do think there is going to be a meltdown up front. Much more so than in the derby.

Cloud Computing is a stalker maybe he goes but doubtful, Term of Art is a.... wait term of art got into the preakness??? Someone double check that... lol just kidding. term of art is a closer... and a turd of one I might add

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by Julz

If you think there is no pace, you must not follow horse racing. This group is going 22 and 45, which will cook AD. It's either classic empire or Gunnevera mowing them down. Gunnevera needs no luck in this one.

I don't recall a Preakness chart in history with those fractions and nothing on the preliminary list indicates any have ever run so fast. Royal Mo was arguably the best early speed horse but he's out. That leaves the fresh but underwhelming Cloud Computing and Conquest Mo. If anyone gets cooked it's those two. It's gonna look like Mr. Z versus American Pharoah.

[AirNate012]

Originally Posted by Julz

I think AD, conquest, cloud computing, term of art- battle up front. I do think there is going to be a meltdown up front. Much more so than in the derby.

Considering Term of Art has never been close to the pace in any of his previous 9 starts and has always been a closer, why would he be pressing the pace in he Preakness?

[Julz]

Originally Posted by AirNate012

Considering Term of Art has never been close to the pace in any of his previous 9 starts and has always been a closer, why would he be pressing the pace in he Preakness?

Although he is a turd, he will gum up the works. He had a 102 Bris early on in his last race from a bad post. Oneil was quoted in an article that he has changed tactics with the horse and will send him early.

[AirNate012]

Originally Posted by Julz

Although he is a turd, he will gum up the works. He had a 102 Bris early on in his last race from a bad post. Oneil was quoted in an article that he has changed tactics with the horse and will send him early.

Link to that article?