Damn, do I love this race. The public is going to make it a three horse race with Fierceness at 6-5, Conquest Warrior at 5-2 and Hades at 7-2. I see it as a four horse race with Grand Mo the First as the fourth. If you are going to bet the race you have to answer one big question with confidence, did Pletcher have Fierceness ready or not in the Holy Bull.
Frankie's Empire 12-1 ML Is a step below the top four but looks clearly the next best of the other seven. He almost caught the
last race and would have two steps past the wire. The added distance should make him be able to turn the tables. There is a super high 5 and he looks like the one to round it out. If one of the four throw in a clunker he could run fourth.
Hades 7-2 ML He isn't getting away with pedestrian fractions like he did in the Holy Bull. Having the inside post may allow him the lead but at what cost? While he may wire the field I don't see it. I think he fades to third or fourth.
Bail Us Out 15-1 ML Pletcher said he would have to step up big time to contend. That is an understatement! Going from a maiden win and only his third start is next to impossible to do. TOSS
Grand Mo the First 15-1 ML I loved him in the Tampa Derby and the crawling pace made his speed figure weak. Don't be fooled, he is going to run big and the extra distance is only going to suit him. He runs well on all three surfaces which shows he has talent. Five for five in the money so far! The longshot special to hit the exotics!
Real Macho 20-1 ML Both of his two turn races have been horrendous and that isn't changing now. TOSS
Le Dom Brom 15-1 ML Don't think he wants any part of nine furlongs. He would need someone to throw in a clunker to round out the super high five, which is always possible. Looks best of the rest though.
Catalytic 20-1 ML Going from six furlongs and only his third race is asking way too much against this group. He couldn't even with an NW1 last race. TOSS
Seminole Chief 30-1 ML Would appear that he does his best running on the lead or close to it and that isn't happening. Went off almost 15-1 in an allowance race tells you he isn't well regarded. TOSS
Conquest Warrior 3-1 ML Damn, can a horse get hyped any more than him? His Brisnet times of 86 88 86 won't cut it as far as winning goes. He also hasn't run against anyone. Merit who he beat last time isn't any good. The horse has talent and will be hard to keep out of the super but winning looks doubtful.
Fierceness 8-5 ML I will come right out and say it, I think Pletcher had him nowhere near ready condition wise, probably 60%. I think he thought he could win on raw talent alone and he was wrong. Pletcher blaming the start is a poor excuse as the great ones overcome adversity. He is working lights out and Pletcher will have him at the top of his game. Hard to see him out of the top two! THE PICK
Iris's dream 30-1 ML Had to go to the turf to win and the outside post is a killer at GP. Couldn't beat Maidens in a six horse field two back on the dirt and won't be anywhere in this race. TOSS
My selections are
No excuses today for the champ!
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. Sat 4th early even dropping back to 6 or so lengths back in the 3 path, and launched a sustained dominating move 3 to 4 wide around the entire track walking easily to a win while not ever looking remotely close to being all out. Obviously one to watch going forward.
