Skinner or Mandarin Hero

[gov135]

Let’s pretend that you need to choose between Mandarin Hero and Skinner to fill out the bottom positions of an exotic play. Should be easy, right? They just faced each other in the SA Derby. Just watch that race. Again. And again. And again. Skinner had mild trouble at start. Mandarin Hero was blocked. Skinner may be even further back to start than Manderin. Close on figures. Any thoughts, even asinine ones, considered.

[Nitro]

Very simple!
Which of these 2 runners has proven itself on an off track?
Although Mandarin Hero has bad post there shouldn't be any concern getting a decent position by the time they're on the back stretch.

[f2tornado]

Mandarin is a neck plus a nose from being undefeated through six starts. If his nose was an inch or two longer than he would be one of the chalks. That said, I believe I heard Andrew Beyer suggest that was his pick if he was in. That has historically led to auto-toss status. Mandarin should be a little closer to the front than Skinner and that's probably a big plus. There's too many late speed horses this year to play catch up.

[Sunday Silence]

No - Beyer likes the other Japanese horse. UAE

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by Sunday Silence

No - Beyer likes the other Japanese horse. UAE

you have to worry about derma if you don't play him. he looks to have tactical speed (but do we really know from that post and not racing in the usa) and that speed fig was translated to be off the charts. there's still reasons to not play or take as seriously though.

it's going to be a sad day for the money throwing Spanky gif should he run big.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Well, if you just look at the lone race they ran against each other head-to-head, Skinner had every imaginable advantage on his side, and Mandarin Hero beat him.

MH was shipping to the States for his 1st ever race on American soil. No small feat in itself. He was racing against what was supposedly the best field he had ever faced with a jockey not of the experience and relevance of most every other horse in the field.

Meanwhile, Skinner was making his 4th consecutive start at Santa Anita at a track in which he had already won and earned a solid 3rd in a G2 race last out and was definitely trending on the improve. He had a Triple Crown winning jockey on his back and a trainer with a Kentucky Derby win notch on his belt.

Skinner had nearly every conceivable advantage on his side, and Mandarin Hero still beat him.

While it is one single race, you have to be impressed with what Mandarin Hero did in that race. He was arguably the best horse in the field losing by a mere nose while not getting the best of trips when the real racing mattered most in the stretch run.

[sovereign]

Mandarin Hero - he bullied his way to get space and isn't afraid to be in close quarters. And he showed he can keep up with an American pace and have some fight left when the real running begins.

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by sovereign

Mandarin Hero - he bullied his way to get space and isn't afraid to be in close quarters. And he showed he can keep up with an American pace and have some fight left when the real running begins.

the horse had a really nice rail trip in a short field. he may be a AAA horse in Japan but he still ran a decent race against usually solid cali horses.

skinner ran a decent race as well. but the horse hung in the stretch...but he could also improve.
horse isn't for me but there are some reasons to back.

some would say both of these ran better than pm and in some aspects they might have.

I can't fault anybody backing mh in the exotics. but my take on the cali horses is different than many. I'm just not buying them, but I will say both of these two offer more upside than pm did, and I really didn't want to see them in the race. only because I fear them a lil moar.

MH is on way outside as well. just where the he_ll do you think he's going? he certainly isn't going to get that amazing trip here. and skinner is going to be in the back of the pack

[Aerocraft67]

In this big field, Skinner doesn't rank far below Mandarin Hero—especially given a complementary running style—but it's below.

Putting aside the validity of the hypothetical scenario, if the Santa Anita Derby were any longer at all, Mandarin Hero would have won. And Skinner probably would have been second. Hard to see Skinner rallying to win that scenario. He was hung, although staying.

Mandarin Hero didn't exactly get trouble, but he very deliberately navigated traffic several times. A skill that will serve him well tomorrow.

Here's a link to Mandarin's one loss, to another Hero. Not sure he had much excuse, but looks like he could have gained a bit more ground on the leader had they gone any longer, but for that little sputter he had at the very end.

Happy to hear from more seasoned trip handicappers what they think.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cwUpR81qYjc

[five-eighths]

Probably favor Mandarin Hero by a nose, when he drew in to me it was like Skinner 2.0 since they have the same running style and figs. Now Skinner has a new jock so that could factor too.

Don’t like to split hairs, will still be using both horses in my wagers.

[FartyJones]

the CD live feed just said skinner with a fever so you might not have to decide.

[f2tornado]

Skinner scratched per DRF.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Aerocraft67

In this big field, Skinner doesn't rank far below Mandarin Hero—especially given a complementary running style—but it's below.

Putting aside the validity of the hypothetical scenario, if the Santa Anita Derby were any longer at all, Mandarin Hero would have won. And Skinner probably would have been second. Hard to see Skinner rallying to win that scenario. He was hung, although staying.

Mandarin Hero didn't exactly get trouble, but he very deliberately navigated traffic several times. A skill that will serve him well tomorrow.

Here's a link to Mandarin's one loss, to another Hero. Not sure he had much excuse, but looks like he could have gained a bit more ground on the leader had they gone any longer, but for that little sputter he had at the very end.

Happy to hear from more seasoned trip handicappers what they think.

That’s an interesting thought, but you might have missed the video of who was leading during the run-out beyond the finish line in the SA Derby. Practical Move was one of my Keys before scratching. Maybe it’ll return for the Preakness and eat up those tight turns on a speed favoring racing surface

[classhandicapper]

Graham Pavey
@LongBallToNoOne
·
Aug 16
HERO CALL beats MANDARIN HERO in the big Dirt monster rumble at Ohi!

1800m 3yo Nikkan Sports Sho #NAR

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Last edited by classhandicapper; 08-17-2023 at 04:34 PM.