easiest top 6 i've ever had before KD draw

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by Curln22

Mage hype:
Reminds me of that maiden at Gulfstream who freaked in the slop the whole racing world went bonkers.
Never progressed.

that was a monster race in the fd. he advanced so quickly from last it was like a button was pushed. if he wasn't left in the gate he might of won that race.

he understandably tired in the deep stretch .

how can you not view that race as a precursor to good things from a talented horse.

this seems like ahorse everyone should want a piece of.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by Curln22

Mage hype:
Reminds me of that maiden at Gulfstream who freaked in the slop the wholes racing world went bonkers.
Never progressed.

That was Hidden Scroll. Mage is showing figure progression going longer. Potentially beats Forte with a better break. Good sign. Not my Derby pick but am hesitant to toss it from gimmicks. I’m a sucker for a good late running Raise A Native sire line.

[sovereign]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

that was a monster race in the fd. he advanced so quickly from last it was like a button was pushed. if he wasn't left in the gate he might of won that race.

he understandably tired in the deep stretch .

how can you not view that race as a precursor to good things from a talented horse.

this seems like ahorse everyone should want a piece of.

He will become the wiseguy horse.

[Curln22]

Ty that was the horse.

This mage hype I’m having issues buying it.
Horse has broken slow last two races.
Got passed and the derby is another 1/8 mile longer.
Breaks slow in the derby toast.

GL

[boys at tosconova]

the more i look at mage he more he's a must use. to put a race in like he did in the fd you have to consider the horse to even win the kd at a decent price to boot.

i don't buy into the kd is wide open nonsense

forte/tt/mage/verfy


that's all she wrote

veryfying is last on the list because the horse may not want to go that far. but the horse should get a boost for being in position and may improve as well.

i don't even like anything else. you can prolly group the remainder of horses in an overlapping group of two divisions.

[Bennie]

Blazing Seven to pass on the derby moving Jaces Road to #20 and Skinner one step closer to making the field.

[Geno_Gino]

Here's hoping Skinner gets in. I made a small wager on him in the SA Derby (a loser) and a larger wager on him in the future book wager @45-1.

If he does get in, I suspect he'll be about 20-1 or higher, depending on the draw.

[Aerocraft67]

After browsing summary figures and thread:

Kingsbarns has some of the best distance ratings (for what they're worth). All the upside in his fourth race.

But he has exceptionally poor late pace figs—only Wild on Ice is worse. While several look stronger earlier.

Class is middling. Whether he can or not, he has not run as fast as these—only Wild on Ice and maybe Continuar have shown less. Maybe he's still running at the end, but well out of the money, I reckon.

I still like the other one running his fourth race, Mage. His speed and class are middling, but he's had to face Forte twice, and he's spotting the field at least two races.

He has strong early and late pace ratings. Looks to be comfortably forward in a position to pounce for the win...if he can break. He's done well in spite of that, but if he breaks slow again, he'll maybe get 5th.

Practical Move has very strong speed and class figs, but distance ratings are with the bottom of the field. Hard to swallow that with a short price. Don't want him; not enthused to play against him.

Angel of Empire has middling figs across the board and not far from the bottom for distance rating. Not very appetizing at fourth or fifth choice, single-digit odds. Verifying looks to be the better price with similar prospects.

Of the top three, I'm most skeptical of Tapit Trice. He looks to be pretty far back, behind several others with just as much late run. Middling distance ratings. Too risky for the short price. More likely than Practical Move, yet more appealing to play against.

Forte doesn't have to win, but I think you have to use him.

Don't know what to make of the Japanese entrants yet. Haven't factored in Jace's Road yet.

I sorted the rest in the longshot thread, assuming 20-1 or better. Several look usable: Two Phil's, Hit Show, Reincarnate, Confidence Game, Lord Miles. I like Confidence Game most of these, maybe Reincarnate least. I'd expect Lord Miles to be the biggest price of these; less interested otherwise. Also less interested in Two Phil's and Hit Show if they take real money.

I like Mage and Confidence Game. Have to use Forte. Lob Lord Miles in for a bomb. Mid-priced filler: Verifying, Two Phil's, Hit Show, or Reincarnate. We'll see about Derma Sotogake and Jace's Road.

[Aerocraft67]

Quick postscript on Jace's Road. Best you can say is that he hasn't had a chance to show his best as a 3yo, busting the gate before the last race, and catching slop in the race before.

Which takes you back to his 2yo season, ending with a wire-to-wire win in the Gun Runner by five lengths. That puts him right with these at that stage of his career.

You could put a line through his 3yo form and project off that win to see him in contention here. But so many others have had better 3yo careers. Just hard to see him competing for the front set and holding on late.

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by Aerocraft67

After browsing summary figures and thread:

Of the top three, I'm most skeptical of Tapit Trice. He looks to be pretty far back, behind several others with just as much late run. Middling distance ratings. Too risky for the short price. More likely than Practical Move, yet more appealing to play against.

depending on post and makeup of the race you can't rule out tt being on the engine early in the kd. the program doesn't show it but the horse was as interested as much as saez wanted to be early on in the bg. saez even yanked him back and went wide the entire race.

just watch the race. the main objective was to not get boxed or checked. horse had a rough trip and still won. in the tb derby the horse was eating hay and drinking lemonade when the gate opened and spotted the field many lengths and still won easily. in both races he was eating up ground late and wishing the race was even longer

I don't believe tt and forte are closers in a handicapping sense where you worry about reaching or getting there.

[boys at tosconova]

my dilemma with 2 Phils is that he beat nothing in the ruby. not only that but it wasn't even on dirt. it's a borderline toss/ignore/respect as you see fit. people love numbers or ratings and this horse was off the charts in that race

his lecompe and rs were identical races where he made his move and still lost ground late. sun thunder even motored by.

[boys at tosconova]

cyclone left and was 4 wide for most of the fd. he was on move earlier (just past the half) than mage and forte. horse raced well pretty deep into the stretch to finish 3rd.

I don't know if he gets in but having tactical speed and not have to be on the lead will surely help him in the kd. the look of that fd race is very encouraging (other than the fact that going longer isn't what he does best). if he can save ground and not move too early he might be able to hang around being up close. have to like him a little at 50-1

[Aerocraft67]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

you can't rule out tt being on the engine early in the kd.

Yeah, that would overcome what looks like an iffy pace scenario on paper. Not much else to knock on him.

It's hard to beat the chalk. I'm already resigned to include the favorite. Now I gotta play the second choice?

Still not sure about Derma Sotogake. I'm inclined to use him, but pretty skeptical at third choice. I can get past the next few choices (Practical Move, Angel of Empire, Kingsbarns) into the more interesting mid-priced contenders, then on to a few viable longshots in the bottom half of the field. So there's still hope of catching a price with a manageable spread.

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

my dilemma with 2 Phils

He is a bit light on class to be carrying that gaudy speed fig into the race. Hasn't done much else, yet he's the most exposed of the field. Only Derma Sotogake is also heading into his ninth race. That said, Rivelli is good for the surface switch back to dirt—and several other trainer angles on this setup.

Not bad if he's ninth choice at 20-1, but no good below that, and I suspect he takes more money. I definitely prefer Verifying and Mage from the mid-price group. I'd even take Confidence Game over this one. Close contest with Hit Show at a bigger price.

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by Aerocraft67

Yeah, that would overcome what looks like an iffy pace scenario on paper. Not much else to knock on him.

It's hard to beat the chalk. I'm already resigned to include the favorite. Now I gotta play the second choice?

Still not sure about Derma Sotogake. I'm inclined to use him, but pretty skeptical at third choice. I can get past the next few choices (Practical Move, Angel of Empire, Kingsbarns) into the more interesting mid-priced contenders, then on to a few viable longshots in the bottom half of the field. So there's still hope of catching a price with a manageable spread.









He is a bit light on class to be carrying that gaudy speed fig into the race. Hasn't done much else, yet he's the most exposed of the field. Only Derma Sotogake is also heading into his ninth race. That said, Rivelli is good for the surface switch back to dirt—and several other trainer angles on this setup.

Not bad if he's ninth choice at 20-1, but no good below that, and I suspect he takes more money. I definitely prefer Verifying and Mage from the mid-price group. I'd even take Confidence Game over this one. Close contest with Hit Show at a bigger price.

derma galloped like a donkey today. channeling his inner thunder snow. hahaha. both him and kb seem like they both should be in the lead group.

can't rule out mage going to the front as well. mage and tt would not surprise me being up close. those two look talented enough to do it. neither has a defined run style yet and both can easily run better than they ever have. these 2 horses are legit win contenders for the kd. I like both of them quite a bit

as for using tt. I think he's the horse to beat. fixed odds have him at at what 6-1?. seems a lil high. but kd odds are hard to predict. I can't imagine mage being 20-1 but 10/15-1 seems to be there. there should be plenty of mid price value. how can this horse not gain a following. it's not likes he's hiding behind a big race. that big race is clear as day by just watching his last race and looking at the program. he's not going to be but the horse should be one of the fav's imo.

[depalma113]

Originally Posted by Curln22

Ty that was the horse.

This mage hype I’m having issues buying it.
Horse has broken slow last two races.
Got passed and the derby is another 1/8 mile longer.
Breaks slow in the derby toast.

GL

A guy who uses Curlin in his avatar is worried about Mage getting a mile and a quarter? That's strange.