Consensus picks for BigM Saturday

[Ray2000]

I'll score this tomorrow, $2 Win/Place/Show on Win Picks.
Anyone who would like to put in their Win pick for Races 1 - 10, I'll include in the score.
Bot2 is a computer program trying to find the favorite.

	Race1	Race2	Race3	Race4	Race5	Race6	Race7	Race8	Race9	Race10	
Ray	1	5	4	3	6	2	2	3	8	10	Win
	8	6	7	2	7	6	8	9	6	6	Place
	3	2	3	5	3	9	3	5	5	7	Show
Robot	1	5	3	4	6	5	2	7	5	6	Win
	8	4	7	3	5	9	6	3	8	9	Place
	5	2	4	5	7	4	3	5	9	3	Show
Bot2	1	7	1	3	1	2	2	4	1	6	Win
	8	2	3	2	3	9	6	2	3	5	Place
	4	1	5	4	6	3	1	6	7	7	Show
Pandy	1	1	4	8	5	5	2	2	5	8	Win
	3	4	1	4	9	2	3	3	1	5	Place
	2	5	7	6	2	4	6	9	2	2	Show
Giwner	8	4	8	7	9	5	2	2	5	2	Win
	7	5	1	1	2	9	3	5	8	8	Place
	2	3	2	8	1	2	5	3	3	5	Show
Little	5	2	1	8	7	5	2	9	8	8	Win
	1	5	7	2	1	9	5	4	2	5	Place
	4	4	8	4	9	4	6	3	3	3	Show
										
Consensus..(Using Inside pick for Tie break)											
	1	5	1	3	6	5	2	3	5	6

Rolling Pic3 Plays by consensus... 3+12+12+4+2+4+8 = 45 tickets ($1 min)

Starting with
Race 2...................................Race 8
....5 / 1 / 3,4,8 / 1,6,7,9 / 5 / 2 / 2,3 / 5,8 / 6,8

Good Luck All

[coachv30]

Hi Ray

R1: 1-7-5
R2: 4-2-5
R3: 7-2-1
R4: 6-8-3
R5: 9-1-5
R6: 5-9-1
R7: 2-6-1
R8: 1-7-6
R9: 9-8-5
R10: 8-6-9
R11: 4-2-5
R12: 6-8-7

[Ray2000]

thx coach

I only need the top pick in each race 1-10 unless you or anyone would like it scored differently.

BTW
On my pic3 plays, turns out R3 and R7 are Pic4's...so total minimum cost is $55.00

[Ray2000]

	Ray	Robot	Bot2	Pandy	Giwner	Little	Coach	Consensus
Race1	$7.00	$7.00	$7.00	$7.00	$13.00		$7.00	$7.00
Race2				$20.20		$7.20		
Race3			$14.60			$14.60		$14.60
Race4				$9.60		$9.60		
Race5			$20.00			$12.60		
Race6	$18.00	$4.30	$18.00	$4.30	$4.30	$4.30	$4.30	$4.30
Race7	$9.40	$9.40	$9.40	$9.40	$9.40	$9.40	$9.40	$9.40
Race8	$15.20		$4.60				$21.00	$15.20
Race9			$7.80				$26.40	
Race10					$10.20			

Total return for $2 Win/Place/Show, Races 1-10	(cost $60.00)					
	$49.60	$20.70	$81.40	$50.50	$36.90	$57.70	$68.10	$50.50

Bot2 came out on top last night. Coach also made money

Bot2 is testing each horse for TRUE on these factors and picking the horse with the most 'TRUES'
Class down_>3TM change
Last Race TMSpeed good_>+3
Different Track today
Post today moves in +5
Lasix +2
Daysoff<8
MoLine Rank 1,2,or3
Fave in Last
Claimed in last
Driver switch
Driver Win rate >14%
last race shows early speed

As in Feb posted thread
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=128960

[rikkisnumber]

Ray,
Interesting and informative thread. Does Bot2 have a build in tiebreaker? Also, my guess is that all these factors are not equal in value; if you were developing this further would you give some more weight than others?
Great job! Rich

[Ray2000]

I'm using Excel's tie-breaking Rank formula:

RANK(horse,entries,0)+COUNTIF(horse:entries)-1

which gives the highest rank to the lowest post number among the ties.

As for the weight to give to each factor, that's the toughest decision of all.

I built a spreadsheet once that lets the user decide how much weight to give to the factor ranks.
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...ad.php?t=55866

That spreadsheet (SulkyPicker.xlsm) is now at this address

http://ge.tt/7RuvulZ2

It has Pocono loaded for today, you can play around with the factor weights.

[pacer]

Originally Posted by Ray2000

	Ray	Robot	Bot2	Pandy	Giwner	Little	Coach	Consensus
Race1	$7.00	$7.00	$7.00	$7.00	$13.00		$7.00	$7.00
Race2				$20.20		$7.20		
Race3			$14.60			$14.60		$14.60
Race4				$9.60		$9.60		
Race5			$20.00			$12.60		
Race6	$18.00	$4.30	$18.00	$4.30	$4.30	$4.30	$4.30	$4.30
Race7	$9.40	$9.40	$9.40	$9.40	$9.40	$9.40	$9.40	$9.40
Race8	$15.20		$4.60				$21.00	$15.20
Race9			$7.80				$26.40	
Race10					$10.20			

Total return for $2 Win/Place/Show, Races 1-10	(cost $60.00)					
	$49.60	$20.70	$81.40	$50.50	$36.90	$57.70	$68.10	$50.50

Bot2 came out on top last night. Coach also made money

Bot2 is testing each horse for TRUE on these factors and picking the horse with the most 'TRUES'
Class down_>3TM change
Last Race TMSpeed good_>+3
Different Track today
Post today moves in +5
Lasix +2
Daysoff<8
MoLine Rank 1,2,or3
Fave in Last
Claimed in last
Driver switch
Driver Win rate >14%
last race shows early speed

As in Feb posted thread
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=128960

Nice results for Bot2

[Ray2000]

thx pacer

Lets try Yonkers tonight

	Pick			Me	Bot2
R1	Ideal Fantasy-8/1	4	2
R2	Jk Heaven Sent-6/1	5	1
R3	Cheyenne Triengel-3/1	1	1
R4	My Mind Is Madeup-8/5	2	1
R5	Santanna Star-9/2	5	1
R6	Validus Deo-7/5		2	4
R7	J T-5/2			4	4
R8	Bin N Heaven-15/1	8	7
R9	Queen Of Denial-5/2	5	6
R10	Let'S Drink On It-5/2	3	2
R11	Ronny Bugatti-3/1	3	1
R12	Great Vintage-9/5	1	5

GLA

[precisionk]

This is all good stuff. I REALLY need to sit down with the Sulkypicker and just figure it out. I am at that point of wanting to try out some new angles with weights but want to do it over a large batch of races to see what happens.

[Ray2000]

Originally Posted by Ray2000

thx pacer

Lets try Yonkers tonight

	Pick			Me	Bot2
R1	Ideal Fantasy-8/1	4	2
R2	Jk Heaven Sent-6/1	5	1
R3	Cheyenne Triengel-3/1	1	1
R4	My Mind Is Madeup-8/5	2	1
R5	Santanna Star-9/2	5	1
R6	Validus Deo-7/5		2	4
R7	J T-5/2			4	4
R8	Bin N Heaven-15/1	8	7
R9	Queen Of Denial-5/2	5	6
R10	Let'S Drink On It-5/2	3	2
R11	Ronny Bugatti-3/1	3	1
R12	Great Vintage-9/5	1	5

GLA

Bot2 failed miserably last night, takes about 400-500 races before the numbers become meaningful.

Win/Place/Show ...cost $72

	Me		Bot2
Race1	scr		$6.50
Race2	$9.80		
Race3	$4.90		$4.90
Race4	$6.30		
Race5	$6.20		
Race6	$7.70		$6.20
Race7	$5.60		$5.60
Race8	scr		
Race9			
Race10	$7.90		
Race11	$5.60		$2.40
Race12	$7.10		$2.50
refund	$12.00			

	$73.10		$28.10