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Originally Posted by rmania
I don't want to agrue the point that the fav picked up 4 lbs (was really only 1 lb) or that he was a "fair horse" (was shiiped up north for that one race) or that he was outclassed (faced MdnALW in every race but one before Sun) or that I used last races as a big factor (I find that the best place to start).
What I did say was that his race before the PLN race was a clucker and that appeared to be the race he ran on Sunday.
If you can, watch the reply. It's pretty comical. Every horse on or near the lead came to almost a complete stop at the qtr pole. The jockeys on the closers (who all finished in the money) had to do a lot of ****quick manuvering to avoid running into the stopped horses****. And four of the six jockeys on those dying horses didn't even ride their horses out.
And once again I do not belive the race was fixed. I guess I had just never witnessed anything like that.
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I was using your 1st post to generally say there are a lot of factors that can determine a winner as well as hold a horse back; a close exam of charts and PPs can help. Program says fav had 124 lbs, no other had more than 120 (4 yr olds had extra weight, only other 4 yr had a bug). Fav was within 1 month shipped 400 miles. then back 400 miles, then 150 miles. I'm saying that several factors were against the fav, the biggest being surface change, so IMHO the M/L maker looked at other few factors to get odds. I have seen races where no horse or jockey wants the lead, and these non-machines think they are supposed to continue running slow and are trained to run as even fractions as possible, not like English turf races where they walk and then run like crazy the last 400 meters!
Whenever I see 1 lone low odds runner with "daylight" to the next higher odds, I yell "underlay"!!LOL!
