Busting out of a Slump at the windows. What do you do to bust out of it?

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by groupie doll

If a race doesn't draw a field in line with where my strengths lie then I pass the race.

THIS! THIS! THIS!

I am a massive believer in not only handicapping the horses, but HANDICAPPING THE RACE before you ever get to the horses.

Finding races that fit what you are trying to accomplish is probably the BIGGEST KEY to profit IMO.

[groupie doll]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

THIS! THIS! THIS!

I am a massive believer in not only handicapping the horses, but HANDICAPPING THE RACE before you ever get to the horses.

Finding races that fit what you are trying to accomplish is probably the BIGGEST KEY to profit IMO.

right on

[Hapman]

Originally Posted by PIC6SIX

Yes Vic, making the CORRECT BET speaks volumes to me. How many times does our handicapping prove valid and true but somehow we end up betting into the wrong pool. You have to maximize profits in this game when you can. Like they say in golf, "Drive for show and putt for dough $$$$"

Coming from someone still relatively new to the game (few years) how do you guys learn to make better bets?

My biggest frustration is that I often seem to have handicapped fairly well and have a good sense of who will be there but then end up messing up my betting in the end.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by Hapman

Coming from someone still relatively new to the game (few years) how do you guys learn to make better bets?

My biggest frustration is that I often seem to have handicapped fairly well and have a good sense of who will be there but then end up messing up my betting in the end.

Bet your actual opinion.

For instance, if you have a good idea who the winner is but have no earthly idea who will finish 2nd, you shouldn't be in the exacta pool, at least absent some major overlay.

If you think a favorite is going to win but is too short a price, don't start looking for longshots just because you don't want to pass the race.

Don't click the all box in a vertical.

Etc.

[Hapman]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

If you think a favorite is going to win but is too short a price, don't start looking for longshots just because you don't want to pass the race.

.

Thanks, you're so right, especially here is where I think I always get myself into trouble.

[coachv30]

Bass Fishing works for me

[chiguy]

Bet the #1 horse at half-mile harness tracks for a week.

[v j stauffer]

Originally Posted by groupie doll

My ROI is higher annually when I take breaks in a slump and I am selective about what I play. If a race doesn't draw a field in line with where my strengths lie then I pass the race. If I "Lukas" myself into running through a slump I generally lose way more than I would otherwise. I'm a low-roller. This is how I play for value and I've been funding an IRA with my winnings.

What I meant by that is I don't believe in shutting down the search for good bets. Just walking away.

One never knows, sometimes literally until a few minutes before post, when a must play will present itself.

A bet made three days after a bad run or three months after is still only the next bet you're making. It's either proper and excellent or it's not.

The horses and the situation have no idea when your last bet was.

[v j stauffer]

Originally Posted by Hapman

Coming from someone still relatively new to the game (few years) how do you guys learn to make better bets?

My biggest frustration is that I often seem to have handicapped fairly well and have a good sense of who will be there but then end up messing up my betting in the end.

Handicapping is part of it. But not the be all end all. If you feel you're seeing value with a singular horse there's nothing wrong with living in the win pool and never considering anything else.

It's the cheapest bet there is. It helps you avoid long losing streaks. And it can allow you to stick with a standard bet amount which should NEVER be more than 4% of your overall bankroll.

It's impossible to go broke making a profit.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

Handicapping is part of it. But not the be all end all. If you feel you're seeing value with a singular horse there's nothing wrong with living in the win pool and never considering anything else.

It's the cheapest bet there is. It helps you avoid long losing streaks. And it can allow you to stick with a standard bet amount which should NEVER be more than 4% of your overall bankroll.

It's impossible to go broke making a profit.

Good post...Yet still puzzling...if my bankroll is $100, then my max bet will be $4....which doesn’t seem like enough dough to make any traction capital-wise.....
....so I’m thinking a bankroll of $1000 so that my max bet is $40 per bet...otherwise, what’s the point...? Because it is too little money either won or lost to amount to anything....you can’t pay any bills betting $4 a race for 3 or 4 races a card....then again, you won’t lose your shirt either...but small fry winnings amounts to chump change doesn’t it, I mean after paying out other expenses and the rake on top of it...what do you think the average bankroll of a PA poster really is, for that 4% max bet kicking in....? Like to see this made a POLL Question: What is your average bankroll/ average 4% bet in real life betting....?

[v j stauffer]

Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey

Good post...Yet still puzzling...if my bankroll is $100, then my max bet will be $4....which doesn’t seem like enough dough to make any traction capital-wise.....
....so I’m thinking a bankroll of $1000 so that my max bet is $40 per bet...otherwise, what’s the point...? Because it is too little money either won or lost to amount to anything....you can’t pay any bills betting $4 a race for 3 or 4 races a card....then again, you won’t lose your shirt either...but small fry winnings amounts to chump change doesn’t it, I mean after paying out other expenses and the rake on top of it...what do you think the average bankroll of a PA poster really is, for that 4% max bet kicking in....? Like to see this made a POLL Question: What is your average bankroll/ average 4% bet in real life betting....?

Sometimes theory and reality aren't the same thing. If your bankroll is $100 you're "ONLY" playing for fun and action. If your stack is $1000 then yes a $40 bet is correct and not at all a small wager.

You must look at the long run and not only hope but expect to increase the base and therefore the average bet.

Double up over time and now you're betting $80 a race which I guarantee puts you in the top 10% of largest players. If you're playing two circuits and betting 1/3 of the races that's 6 plays or just under $500 a day which makes you a professional horse player.

Unless it's a tournament I rarely bet more than $300 a race.

You must have the discipline to never expose yourself by chasing or tilting. And more importantly YOU MUST keep your bankroll in a position to weather long slumps and not panic during them.

[thaskalos]

When I see a player betting 4% of his bankroll on a single play...then I hope, for his sake, that his bankroll is readily replaceable in the event that it is lost. Otherwise...a much greater degree of safety is recommended...IMO. This is a game where losing streaks are the rule rather than the exception...and the 4% betting unit depletes the bankroll at a rate that can frazzle the player's nerves, to the point where it may become impossible to play the game with the confidence that it demands.

The bigger the bankroll is, the harder it is to replace it...and the more necessary it becomes to treat it with the respect that it deserves. Underbetting our bankroll may not be as "adventurous" as we would like, but it allows us to function with our sanity intact...whereas OVERBETTING our bankroll is FATAL...for bankroll and sanity alike.

[v j stauffer]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

When I see a player betting 4% of his bankroll on a single play...then I hope, for his sake, that his bankroll is readily replaceable in the event that it is lost. Otherwise...a much greater degree of safety is recommended...IMO. This is a game where losing streaks are the rule rather than the exception...and the 4% betting unit depletes the bankroll at a rate that can frazzle the player's nerves, to the point where it may become impossible to play the game with the confidence that it demands.

The bigger the bankroll is, the harder it is to replace...and the more necessary it becomes to treat it with the respect that it deserves. Underbetting our bankroll may not be as "adventurous" as we would like, but it allows us to function with our sanity intact...whereas OVERBETTING our bankroll is FATAL...for bankroll and sanity alike.

I like this entire post.

Totally agree with the final sentence. That's why at 4% it's probably best to stay in the win pool.

As to sizing you're 100% correct. IT IS NOT a small bet at all.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey

Good post...Yet still puzzling...if my bankroll is $100, then my max bet will be $4....which doesn’t seem like enough dough to make any traction capital-wise.....
....so I’m thinking a bankroll of $1000 so that my max bet is $40 per bet...otherwise, what’s the point...? Because it is too little money either won or lost to amount to anything....you can’t pay any bills betting $4 a race for 3 or 4 races a card....then again, you won’t lose your shirt either...but small fry winnings amounts to chump change doesn’t it, I mean after paying out other expenses and the rake on top of it...what do you think the average bankroll of a PA poster really is, for that 4% max bet kicking in....? Like to see this made a POLL Question: What is your average bankroll/ average 4% bet in real life betting....?

If all you can manage is a $100 bankroll to start with, then you must initially satisfy yourself with the meager profits that such a bankroll can generate. The only universal truth that I have ever discovered in this game is this: "If you can't win with a $100 bankroll...then you won't be able to win with a $10,000 bankroll either". Start with a small bankroll, and see if you can grow it over time...while paying for your racetrack expenses out of your other pocket. And the betting unit grows in accordance with the growing bankroll. Yes, growing the bankroll in such a manner will be a slow endeavor which will grate on your nerves. But the process will infuse you with a sense of confidence which will be INDISPENSABLE when those inescapable losing streaks come around. The player has to EARN the right to make large wagers...IMO.

[v j stauffer]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

If all you can manage is a $100 bankroll to start with, then you must initially satisfy yourself with the meager profits that such a bankroll can generate. The only universal truth that I have ever discovered in this game is this: "If you can't win with a $100 bankroll...then you won't be able to win with a $10,000 bankroll either". Start with a small bankroll, and see if you can grow it over time...while paying for your racetrack expenses out of your other pocket. And the betting unit grows in accordance with the growing bankroll. Yes, growing the bankroll in such a manner will be a slow endeavor which will grate on your nerves. But the process will infuse you with a sense of confidence which will be INDISPENSABLE when those inescapable losing streaks come around. The player has to EARN the right to make large wagers...IMO.

Another excellent post