What is the deal with the late bets?

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Thanks for the kind words. I know I'm getting SOMEWHERE...don't know exactly where yet...

But I DO KNOW THIS. I NO LONGER THINK ABOUT THE TOTE BOARD, I DON'T EXPERIENCE ANY NOTICABLE ODDS DROPS, I DON'T USE CONDITIONAL WAGERING and I DON'T USE AN ODDS LINE.

ALL THIS BECAUSE I AM SPECIFICALLY HUNTING FOR LONGSHOTS AND ONLY LONGSHOTS.

And I've been winning over my last 623 posted bets in the VIP section of this board.

Over the last two days, I've been implementing another new wacky experiment as a tangent to my last 500 race run...only this time, I've worked on narrowing down the number of races I play, BUT, I bet, on average, THREE horses to win...

Here are the results so far (today's races plus the summary box which is two days worth of bets)...I cash more races obviously, but my actual win percentage when based on number of horses bet isn't much better than when I was betting only one horse to win...I'm sure this little experiment will crash and burn eventually, but it will help the prior 500 race run in that it should allow me to bet fewer races while maintaining the same or higher hit rate.

I feel one of my biggest problems during the recent 500 race run was that I was betting too many races.

The best advice I can give you is to keep detailed records of your handicapping method as it stands right now...in case your future "improvements" sink the method into unprofitability, and your continuous adjusting causes you to forget what the original method really consisted of. This happened to me early on in my handicapping career...and I've been regretting it ever since. I constructed a handicapping method based on my own variation of the primary handicapping factors that I had read about during that time-period...and I used that method profitably for an entire year on the Chicago-area circuit. But my ROI wasn't quite up to the elevated standards set in the handicapping books that were put out at that time...and I started tinkering with my method so I could bring it "up to par" with the results that the experts of that era were bragging about in their handicapping books. After my endless tinkering made my method perform much WORSE than it originally did, I discovered, to my dismay...that I could no longer remember what my original method consisted of. That's how confused my endless adjustments had made me.

But, I guess it wasn't all for naught. Yes...I may have forgotten the details of a promising handicapping method. But I was reminded of the power of accurate record-keeping...in ALL areas of our life.

[Tom]

The whole idea of allowing robots to bet is ludicrous.
There should be only two ways to make a bet - at the windows/ATMs on-track, or telephone/internet using and ADW. If you allow certain segments to have such an automated advantage, it is no longer a pari-mutual event.

I know the argument will be that anyone can get their own robots and access the pools the same way, but in reality this is just not true.
It is impossible for the average customer to do, even if they wanted to.

Maybe we need separate pools - one for high rollers only - min bet of $100,000 and only robots are allowed to make the bets. See how the whales do then.

Federal regulation - mandatory!
Wager crosses state line - that opens the door.
Maybe the feds should refuse to allow interstate wagering. THAT would be a shock to the tracks.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

The best advice I can give you is to keep detailed records of your handicapping method as it stands right now...in case your future "improvements" sink the method into unprofitability, and your continuous adjusting causes you to forget what the original method really consisted of. This happened to me early on in my handicapping career...and I've been regretting it ever since. I constructed a handicapping method based on my own variation of the primary handicapping factors that I had read about during that time-period...and I used that method profitably for an entire year on the Chicago-area circuit. But my ROI wasn't quite up to the elevated standards set in the handicapping books that were put out at that time...and I started tinkering with my method so I could bring it "up to par" with the results that the experts of that era were bragging about in their handicapping books. After my endless tinkering made my method perform much WORSE than it originally did, I discovered, to my dismay...that I could no longer remember what my original method consisted of. That's how confused my endless adjustments had made me.

But, I guess it wasn't all for naught. Yes...I may have forgotten the details of a promising handicapping method. But I was reminded of the power of accurate record-keeping...in ALL areas of our life.

Yup...I've got it ingrained in my head.

BTW, just hit that 25-1 shot opening winner at GP. Posted before the race of course, in VIP.

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Yup...I've got it ingrained in my head.

BTW, just hit that 25-1 shot opening winner at GP. Posted before the race of course, in VIP.

So, when are you going to tell us which software you are using?

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

So, when are you going to tell us which software you are using?

I'll post about it shortly in the Handicapping Software section.

Don't want to screw this thread anymore with my gibberish

[GMB@BP]

5/1 to 5/2 out of the gate for Firenze FIre.....there is a new Navarro in NY

[cj]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

5/1 to 5/2 out of the gate for Firenze FIre.....there is a new Navarro in NY

Apparently Servis also bets in addition to winning 50% of the races he enters.

[cj]

Twitter

[Andy Asaro]

Originally Posted by cj

Apparently Servis also bets in addition to winning 50% of the races he enters.

It's laughable. Gap in works and runs out of his mind.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by cj

Apparently Servis also bets in addition to winning 50% of the races he enters.

That was amazing, I have followed that horse closely and think he can run his best at that distance, and I did bet him, but that was just stupid, I mean, tell your rider to hide it a bit. He is making a mockery of NY racing right now.

[GMB@BP]

How many lengths does this Servis horse win by in the next stake, horse looks competitive but should not jog in this race.

[Andy Asaro]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

How many lengths does this Servis horse win by in the next stake, horse looks competitive but should not jog in this race.

I used him most in the next leg. That means he'll stumble. I've had about 5 of my top picks stumble today.

[Tom]

Got a nice exacta in the next - Servis and Navarro.
Better living through chemistry.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

That was amazing, I have followed that horse closely and think he can run his best at that distance, and I did bet him, but that was just stupid, I mean, tell your rider to hide it a bit. He is making a mockery of NY racing right now.

Hard to do at NYRA anymore.

[Robert Fischer]

Navarro and Servis both have speeds in here. Maybe we'll see a nuclear reaction?

seem to benefit

I prefer .


Maybe a small multi but not eager to bet this.