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07-06-2018, 05:56 PM
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#16
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,569
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
I hear you.
My ROI after around 360 bets was at a bigly 27%
The next 140 bets cut my ROI down by more than half...I hit that bad run that you speak of, and then some.
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The problem with you is that you can't recognize a good thing when you see one. You've been implementing a method that gives you 30+ bets a day...and you garnered a 13% ROI after 500+ bets. And, instead of congratulating yourself on your noteworthy achievement, you bemoan the fact that your earlier ROI was "cut in half"...and that your method is susceptible to long run-outs. If after a little more testing your ROI falls to the 10% level...you will be calling yourself a "terrible handicapper" again... as you did after your last winning trial, a few months ago.
When will you realize that the horseplayer who gets a 10% ROI while betting on 30+ races a day, is sitting on a freaking GOLDMINE?
__________________
"Theory is knowledge that doesn't work. Practice is when everything works and you don't know why."
-- Hermann Hesse
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07-06-2018, 08:21 PM
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#17
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
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Yup, the CRW plays crushed him.
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07-06-2018, 10:44 PM
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#18
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,569
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
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The exacta payoff went from $28 to $14 in one flash. Can we be sure that this didn't occur after the horses crossed the finish line?
__________________
"Theory is knowledge that doesn't work. Practice is when everything works and you don't know why."
-- Hermann Hesse
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07-06-2018, 10:52 PM
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#19
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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07-06-2018, 10:56 PM
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#20
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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Re-posted so people can see it directly.
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07-06-2018, 10:57 PM
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#21
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,887
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I would rather put up with the druggies than this BS.
No one will ever convince me bets are not being made AFTER the windows close.
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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07-06-2018, 10:58 PM
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#22
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
The exacta payoff went from $28 to $14 in one flash. Can we be sure that this didn't occur after the horses crossed the finish line?
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I'm not sure how anyone can think they have a fair shake these days unless part of the teams.
It will never happen because horseplayers could never be united, but they relly should stop betting until the last second as well. There is no incentive to bet early other than to help competition which already has an edge.
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07-06-2018, 10:58 PM
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#23
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,569
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If this is the work of the Whales, who supposedly bet on all the overlaid combinations on the board...then other exacta combinations in the same race should show similar downward moves in their expected payoffs...right?
__________________
"Theory is knowledge that doesn't work. Practice is when everything works and you don't know why."
-- Hermann Hesse
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07-06-2018, 11:03 PM
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#24
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,569
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
I'm not sure how anyone can think they have a fair shake these days unless part of the teams.
It will never happen because horseplayers could never be united, but they relly should stop betting until the last second as well. There is no incentive to bet early other than to help competition which already has an edge.
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The game is being taken away from the individual bettor...there is no doubt about that. And, as we've said here before...this problem can only get worse with the passage of time.
__________________
"Theory is knowledge that doesn't work. Practice is when everything works and you don't know why."
-- Hermann Hesse
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07-06-2018, 11:04 PM
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#25
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 5,803
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
I'm not sure how anyone can think they have a fair shake these days unless part of the teams.
It will never happen because horseplayers could never be united, but they relly should stop betting until the last second as well. There is no incentive to bet early other than to help competition which already has an edge.
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Exactly. If we were things would change in 30 days.
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07-06-2018, 11:06 PM
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#26
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,569
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Andy Asaro
Exactly. If we were things would change in 30 days.
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30 days? If no one put any money in the wagering pools until the last few seconds of the betting period...then things would change in THREE days.
__________________
"Theory is knowledge that doesn't work. Practice is when everything works and you don't know why."
-- Hermann Hesse
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07-06-2018, 11:24 PM
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#27
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Austin, Tx
Posts: 2,752
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None of this currently, or ever has, made sense to me.
1. If robotic betting is hammering down one or a few combinations (win, or exacta, or whatever), then those combinations will drop significantly, as in the example listed.
2. These robots aren't correct 100% of the time, right?
3. Assume these robots are correct "only" 50% of the time (still an amazing feat).
4. That means in 50% of the cases, a combination that is sitting at $14 at post suddenly pays $28.
Show me the scenario that pays double than what it shows at post and then I can believe this is what is happening. If that example doesn't exist, then one must think this robotic betting is right 100% of the time which is impossible.
The robotic betting should be our worst enemy in a % of races (like the one listed here) and our best friend in the other % of races (when they get it wrong) because the payoff will be dramatically higher than it should be. I have yet to see anyone post a dramatically positive situation.
Regardless of the "why", something unique IS happening. I've always said there is one way to prove this thing to yourself. Do a screen shot of the toteboard at zero minutes to post (as their loading into the gate). Then wait a couple of minutes (don't watch the race) and do a final screen shot of the toteboard. See how often you can pick the winner just by looking at where the massive drops are. You'll be right so often it will scare you.
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07-06-2018, 11:36 PM
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#28
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Austin, Tx
Posts: 2,752
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Prairie Meadows Race 10:
Screen shot as last horse is loading:
1: 6-1
2: 9-2
3: 7-1
4: 3-1
5: 21-1
6: 50-1
7: 14-1
8: 7-5
After the race:
1: 4-1
2: 7-2
3: 9-2
4: 7-2
5: 12-1
6: 70-1
7: 16-1
8: 2-1
Three horses went down.... 1,2,3
Ran 2,8,3,4
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07-06-2018, 11:45 PM
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#29
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 355
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Does anyone know how many "robotic" betting syndicates, or groups, there are?
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07-07-2018, 01:44 AM
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#30
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,642
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
The problem with you is that you can't recognize a good thing when you see one. You've been implementing a method that gives you 30+ bets a day...and you garnered a 13% ROI after 500+ bets. And, instead of congratulating yourself on your noteworthy achievement, you bemoan the fact that your earlier ROI was "cut in half"...and that your method is susceptible to long run-outs. If after a little more testing your ROI falls to the 10% level...you will be calling yourself a "terrible handicapper" again... as you did after your last winning trial, a few months ago.
When will you realize that the horseplayer who gets a 10% ROI while betting on 30+ races a day, is sitting on a freaking GOLDMINE?
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Thanks for the kind words. I know I'm getting SOMEWHERE...don't know exactly where yet...
But I DO KNOW THIS. I NO LONGER THINK ABOUT THE TOTE BOARD, I DON'T EXPERIENCE ANY NOTICABLE ODDS DROPS, I DON'T USE CONDITIONAL WAGERING and I DON'T USE AN ODDS LINE.
ALL THIS BECAUSE I AM SPECIFICALLY HUNTING FOR LONGSHOTS AND ONLY LONGSHOTS.
And I've been winning over my last 623 posted bets in the VIP section of this board.
Over the last two days, I've been implementing another new wacky experiment as a tangent to my last 500 race run...only this time, I've worked on narrowing down the number of races I play, BUT, I bet, on average, THREE horses to win... 
Here are the results so far (today's races plus the summary box which is two days worth of bets)...I cash more races obviously, but my actual win percentage when based on number of horses bet isn't much better than when I was betting only one horse to win...I'm sure this little experiment will crash and burn eventually, but it will help the prior 500 race run in that it should allow me to bet fewer races while maintaining the same or higher hit rate.
I feel one of my biggest problems during the recent 500 race run was that I was betting too many races.
Last edited by PaceAdvantage; 07-07-2018 at 02:12 AM.
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