Kentucky Derby - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

CryingForTheHorses · 05-07-2005, 07:46 PM

WOW what a race!!
This is one of the best races I have ever seen, This race was WELL orchestrated by a trainer and a owner who knew their horse and never tipped their hand.Hell at them odds and having Mike Smith trying for you, It doesnt get better then that. On a sad note..Its amazing to me to have 25% of the derby field and not get a sniff,Hundreds of thousands of dollars are spent on getting these animals to the derby, Those guys in the winners circle were just as shocked as the crowd.I have to give FULL credit to his trainer, My hats off off him.

nick777 · 05-07-2005, 08:15 PM

Bottom line is this

The more you know, the less you know

An old man said that to me once at the track, now i understand what he meant.

All the greatest horse racing minds are completely retarded today, from the top trainers, horsemen, to the soundest handicappers.

A quote from the "Derby" book

"Dosage index (DI) of 4.00 or lower, a trait found in all but 3 winners since 1929."

"Ran a Beyer of 105 or higher at age 3 or 2 in a route, a key factor evident in 10 of the last 12 winners."

Those are the top 2 factors listed in order of importance in the "Book"

The top 2 finishers today, of course both had a DI of over 4.00, and neither one ran even a 100 Beyer, never mind the 105.

It's the Derby Day Massacre, i suspect foul play somewhere.

The hot weather really helped the west coast horses, that is my only observation, after the fact.

Dan Montilion · 05-07-2005, 08:17 PM

If you are giving FULL credit to the trainer of the winner. Does that mean Zito gets FULL credit for stinking up the joint?

Dan Montilion

Valuist · 05-07-2005, 09:21 PM

What a race by Closing Argument. He outdueled Bellamy Road, High Fly, Spanish Chestnut and all the other speed and barely got beat by a deep closer.

As for a projected Beyer, I'm guessing somewhere between a 100 and 105 for the winner. 105 might be pushing it, since the race collapsed late with the 27 second final quarter.

kenwoodallpromos · 05-08-2005, 12:17 AM

Smith was on tv yesterday with a laptop reviewing g's races and planning strategy alone. They said he always does that. He's good in stakes lately.
They said 1 of the horses gets epilepsy shots!
"I suspect foul play" I suspect speed handicappers and a clusterf___. LOL.
Ragedy Andy strikes (out) again!
Early speed doesn't win races automatically or Spanish Chestnut would win them all. The horse that croseses the wire first wins. Where was the longshot "milkshaker's" horse? No foul play there.
If you remember right, John Sherrifs is the trainer who took over Wygod's horses from the guilty milkshaker Cannanis. Sehrrifs has not been caught shaking yet. No foul play there either.
Some of us like me and Tom just like when the cheap longshots show up the bigshot handicappers, horses and horsemen!LOL!

Secretariat · 05-08-2005, 12:28 AM

I will be interested on the speeds analysis of this. It appeared a very fast variant for the day with fractions of the early races blistering. The 2nd race showed a 43.78 half with a 108.03 finish, and the 5th 7 furlong race showed a 44.12 half with a 120.56 finish.

Now in lieu of that I thought there might be a very quick time for the Derby as the weather was great, but it was the 3rd slowest in the last 10 years. The fractions for the Smarty Jones last year on an off-track race was 137.35-2:04.26. Charismatic ran off a 137.58-203.29 to win. Giacomo ran off a 135.88-202.75. Not overwhelming when you compare to Funny Cide's 135.75-201.19 or Fusaichi Pegasus 135.74-201.12

Either this is a very bad crop of three year olds, or every contender bounced dramatically today. Bandini, High Fly, Bellamy Road, Noble Causeway, even Afleet Alex got outrun in the stretch by Giacomo. I realize anything can happen in a horse race, but the incredibly slow in Derby standards final quarter off a moderate pace was surprising. Congrats to Giacomo. One of those ones you shake your head over.

kenwoodallpromos · 05-08-2005, 12:38 AM

Allowance winners ran about 1:09. Graded stakes winners ran like 1:08.5. Seems right to me for a normal track. . And Andy Beyers I think.

Vegas711 · 05-08-2005, 12:54 AM

Lets all bury the dosage index for good along with all the breeding garbage . How many times does something have to fail before it is shown as worthless.

As far as Beyer numbers go , I have never made a dime on them either, they are not worth the paper they are written on. Not that I did this before the race becouse I didn't but if you forget about speed figures and just look at the RAW
UNADJUSTED FINAL TIMES you will see that GIACOMO had some of the fastest final times. He ran several 1 1/16 races in 141 2/5 to 141 3/5ths seconds and ran 1 1/18 final times in 149 2/5 which is faster than most of the times other horses ran.

Maybe looking at Raw Times and ignoring track to track and variants is the way to go.Maybe JIM BRADSHAW was correct when he said that making adjustments is voodoo handicapping. Maybe raw times are more correct than adding a variant afterall how do you really know that a track was fast 3 or slow 4 on a given day. The answer is you don't you are just guessing which may be more harmful to your bottom line.

Overlay · 05-08-2005, 03:30 AM

I can't speak for the general accuracy of predictions based on breeding, but what I read on the horse I liked (High Fly) said that he was bred to only go nine furlongs, and that's about what he went. (Did I listen? Nooooooo.....)

Secretariat · 05-08-2005, 03:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kenwoodallpromos

Allowance winners ran about 1:09. Graded stakes winners ran like 1:08.5. Seems right to me for a normal track. . And Andy Beyers I think.

If a normal track, why such a slow time on a moderate pace? monarchos took advantage of a fast pace to set a blistering final time. My point kendall if this was a normal track, this was a very slow Derby, the third slowest in last 10 years, and Smarty was on an off track last year, and indicates a weak field of three year olds.

PaceAdvantage · 05-08-2005, 04:09 AM

So now it might be a weak crop? A few days ago, it was a very strong crop. A few months ago, it was a weak crop.....

Will someone please make up their collective minds so we can get on with the show!!!??!!

Richard · 05-08-2005, 08:39 AM

Statistically,it's now 10-1 against the 'como achieving Triple Crown status.Only one horse (Assault,1946) has done so with closing odds of higher than 4-1 in the Derby.However,to put it mildly,this horse has already fooled a lot of people,yours truly included.

Kreed · 05-08-2005, 09:10 AM

Good Sunday Morning ... Guys, no S**T, Thursday morning b4 me & Sol took
off for a few days, I grabbed the DRF & later "did" the KD only to Star** both
Giacomo & Closing Arguement as live longshots. I would up with 7 horses:
4-6-10-12-15-16-18 ......... BUT my point is WHY All the Shock? Yes, anyone
could arrive at 12 & 16 & even Bandini (#15) ... there's no thought required
in that. BUT why the Shock over Giacomo? As for Closing Arguement, #18,
listen up please: Just trace his victories starting with his 1st race at Saratoga. Then, At GP, on a Very Fast surface he Beat High Fly (a speedster) & pulled away. The only thing I did NOT like about C.A. was the 1 race on 4/16 --- it seemed too little prep for the KD. PS: I think the Tomlinson's are near crap, but did anyone notice C.A.'s Rating of 480 for the 1-1/4? When has any horse
got that high a rating for the KD? That pedigree woman Lauren Stitch wrote
a whole column picking Andromeda's Hero (Tomlinson, 415) ... so whats up
with a 480?

Kreed · 05-08-2005, 09:27 AM

Vegas, I sort of agree with you 100%. There's a LOT of adjusting going on and
where does it break down? Yet, using totally Raw times probably would not
work. Look at the #9 Greeley's Galaxy win in the G2 Illinois Derby w/ a Beyer
of 106. LOL, now that race was full of NoBodys. And if you confined yourself
to ONLY G1 winners, you have High Fly, Afleet Alex, Wilko, Bandini, Bellamy,
Buzzards Bay: 11, 12, 14, 15, 16, 20. I don't think the Beyers are accurate.
And I still think too much is made over HUGE WINNING MARGINS & WET TRACKS
& ONE TURN MILES. But yet, I can't seem to find TV's & Dist Adjustments &
Track-2-Track Adjusments. What's a bettor to do?

Valuist · 05-08-2005, 11:24 AM

The only thing impressive about the Derby was the first 6 furlongs. Giacomo was basically the last man standing. I will take a strong stand against him at Pimlico. Whenever there's a very fast pace in the Derby, its noticeably slower for the Preakness. This race just fell apart around the three-sixteenths pole.