Arkansas Derby PPs

[Blenheim]

Arkansas Derby PPs

[Afleet]

weather not looking good for Saturday

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by Afleet

weather not looking good for Saturday

Weather hasn't been good for the entire meet. All it has done is rain and rain......and then it rains and thunderstorms
Looks like it will start in wee hours of Friday night, and chances for precipitation for Sat is 100%. How MUCH rain is the only question right now.

Of course, this is Arkansas, if you live here you know that could all change but I still wouldn't count on bright and sunny.

[pele polo]

A lot of early speed in here.

Improbable almost has to go from this spot but the Omaha Beach and Mike Smith will have their eye on the rail and will try to maintain position and keep Improbable pinned. With others likely showing speed, ideally seeing them somehow sit off while not getting the dreaded rail trip would be the best scenario.

Pretty sure Galilean tries to pop the latches early as well as Jersey Agenda (because how else does he have a shot; rated last two and faded).

Gray Attempt coming off a front running one turn score but connections have long wanted to see if he can rate. Adding to the pace scenario only hurts his chances but he's never done anything other than go to the front.

Seems to set up for two accomplished closers in Country House and Long Range Toddy if good enough. Although Omaha Beach has never been far off the pace in his races, but if they can sniff out the proposed pace scenario and rate like a gentlemen they've proven to be one of the two most talented in this race (& grit tested).

Tikhvin Slew could surprise. Throwout the last. A little concerning Santana or another didn't chose to hop on but nonetheless, biggest upside on paper with just three Starts.

, / ,, / ,,,,

[Robert Fischer]

Too early , but I like Improbable to win & wipe out an honest pace, and then a couple clunkers like pass tired rivals


need to do a forecast (weather) I guess as well...

[Afleet]

Originally Posted by clicknow

Weather hasn't been good for the entire meet. All it has done is rain and rain......and then it rains and thunderstorms
Looks like it will start in wee hours of Friday night, and chances for precipitation for Sat is 100%. How MUCH rain is the only question right now.

Of course, this is Arkansas, if you live here you know that could all change but I still wouldn't count on bright and sunny.

I'm going for the weekend, Friday will be nice weather wise. Accuweather is saying possible hail, tornadoes, severe thunderstorms, etc. Saturday-could get ugly

[Suff]

Originally Posted by Afleet

weather not looking good for Saturday

Nice race. checked the weather. wed 4/11/19 calling for SEVERE storms on Saturday.

if it goes, the 3 Omaha Beach and Jersey Agenda #10 have sloppy success.

[BlueChip@DRF]

I'm thinking one of these might upset:
Six Shooter, Country House, Jersey Agenda

[boys at tosconova]

galilean looks like he'll be in good spot just behind the leaders in here.

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by pele polo

Tikhvin Slew could surprise. Throwout the last. A little concerning Santana or another didn't chose to hop on but nonetheless, biggest upside on paper with just three Starts.

I kept track of the mud sires at OP for a lot of years. Street sense has a very good record. So does Lookin at Lucky

I keep getting Six Shooter in 3rd or 4th place. Those P3's do that at Oaklawn but I never would have picked him.

I think Improbable's got this one, but if not, then it may be a surprise ending.

Gonna go thru my oaklawn mud sires tomorrow night and see who I come up with.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Weather is certainly going to be a factor. Looks to be heavy rains early and rain throughout the day.


Improbable (8/5): The horse to beat. Baffert isn't messing around as he puts blinkers on and makes a rider change. A romp here and he is your Derby favorite.

Six Shoorter (30/1): Really interesting horse that has been a fringe player at OP for their Derby Trail series. They skipped the Rebel for a 6F sprint. Fired a fresh bullet. And could be live. Exotics bomber.
Omaha Beach (2/1): Improbable's main threat that actually beat him last out. Almost impossible not seeing him at least hitting the board.
Tikhvin Flew (30/1): Thought he had a shot in the Gotham, and he laid an egg. Serious distance questions.
Laughing Fox (20/1): Took quite a bit of money in the Rebel and never was a factor. Would need an absolute dream trip like 2 back to even hit the board IMO.
Gray Attempt (8/1): Should be a huge pace factor. Can't see him getting anything close to 9 panels though.
Galilean (10/1): Really had no excuses in the Rebel. Don't see that 9Fs is the answer either.
Country House (12/1): Looks like a deep closer, but he got an absolute perfect set up in the Risen Star and still got beat pretty handily. Maybe he clunks up in the Tri or Super, but that is what everybody is likely to do with this guy.

One Flew South (50/1): May as well make it 200/1.

Jersey Agenda (30/1): Another really interesting price. Trouble in his last 2 in the Southwest and Rebel. One of his wins is on the slop and fired a bullet on April Fools Day. One of 4 Asmussen's in here, and looks like he could be dangerous.
Long Range Toddy (5/1): Nice switch to Court in the Rebel, and he responded with a solid and patient ride. Post really shouldn't be a problem as this guy always seems to be coming. Could be overlooked as he always seems to outrun his odds.



Might just cavemen a couple exotic box tickets of

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Suff

Jersey Agenda

Really liked this horse, and he looks like a good animal. I'll have to re-watch his last two. They were 'duds'. Really need some major trouble/excuses.

[f2tornado]

I'm gonna box the two favorites . Not gonna get rich. I'm not sold Improbable is the real deal but he's potentially good enough to wire this field. The mud rail was golden at the track last year. Mike Smith is red hot and will likely have Omaha forwardly placed. Those two might just march all the way around unless the wants to play cheap speed. I think Toddy ran his Derby in the Rebel and takes a step back here. I think the has best shot of ruining an exacta or tri.

[Afleet]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

I'm gonna box the two favorites . Not gonna get rich. I'm not sold Improbable is the real deal but he's potentially good enough to wire this field. The mud rail was golden at the track last year. Mike Smith is red hot and will likely have Omaha forwardly placed. Those two might just march all the way around unless the wants to play cheap speed. I think Toddy ran his Derby in the Rebel and takes a step back here. I think the has best shot of ruining an exacta or tri.

you dont think Gray Attempt will show speed?

[Big Russ]

My wife and I are at the Embassy Suites until Monday morning, in case anyone else is here. Would love to say hello.