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06-10-2008, 09:25 AM
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#76
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Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 1,049
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[QUOTE=WinterTriangle]Dutrow specifically said, before the race, that was the plan. Break out of the gate and go to the lead. .
I doubt that 'go to the lead' was the plan ... I think the plan was to track the speed..on the outside, and that plan was foiled from the get go.
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06-10-2008, 11:50 AM
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#77
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Toronto
Posts: 4,962
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Quote:
Still unable to find anything physically wrong with Big Brown, Dutrow turned his attention to jockey Kent Desormeaux and the ride he gave Big Brown.
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I wouldn't call him that. More like "I know Saturday I said that Kent did not do anything wrong but Sunday they shifted all the blame to me with steroids, me telling everyone he'd win by a football field, calling the other horses also rans, so I decided to shift the blame to someone else to get that heat off me"
To me a Dr Suess book is harder to read than this guy
PA: No kidding eh. Much more fun to talk about things like this. Perhaps more fun than many of the discussions if he won by ten.
Last edited by PaceAdvantage; 06-11-2008 at 02:44 AM.
Reason: Removed quote that was deleted in earlier post
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06-10-2008, 12:12 PM
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#78
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: Norfolk VA
Posts: 6,246
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Quote:
The horse wanted to run and he strangled the horse for 3/4 of a mile.
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True enough, but BB was not rank for 3/4 of a mile, he settled down once clear on the turn and showed no signs of fighting KD down the back stretch.
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06-10-2008, 12:30 PM
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#79
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Toronto
Posts: 4,962
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This is an interesting comment in the Big Brown piece. I wonder if it is a back-hand way to say Zito doesnt think much of Dick and his actions.
Quote:
Zito said he was able to enjoy this Belmont victory more than Birdstone's in 2004, when he actually apologized to the connections of Smarty Jones for ending that colt's Triple Crown bid.
"I was elated," Zito said. "I was jumping up and down because Big Brown wasn't Big Brown. He wasn't making his move, and I said, 'He's not making his move and we're coasting pretty good.' I started getting real excited
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06-10-2008, 12:56 PM
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#80
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: Norfolk VA
Posts: 6,246
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I posted this on another thread but think it's applicable here as well.
Considering this, they ran the mile in 1:38 and BB could not keep up, the final two fractions were run in @ 25 2/5 and 26 2/5, I'm hearing that the Beyer will probably be in the 90's. Heck I believe even War Emblem managed to make a run at the lead entering the stretch after practically falling to his knee's. BB never made a move at ANY stage of the race against the slowest pace this horse has ever faced. If this horse could not sustain a run for the lead at that slow of a pace - what makes you think he could have dueled with DT and come out any better?
Looking at his PP's - his pace and speed figures have been in decline for the past three races, the Raggies might have concluded that he was coming off a 4 race version of the 0-2-X pattern, but instead of getting a rest, he was asked to run a distance he was not breed for within three weeks, while missing some training. Of course the entire racing / handicapping world ignored those facts because he'd won the derby and the preakness "easily". Maybe the heat and humidity, loss of training, lack of breeding, and possible reclining form got the best of him.
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06-10-2008, 01:02 PM
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#81
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Support Res-Q Foundations
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: New York
Posts: 1,488
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Obviously there will be 2 distinctly different views on this .. either Kent did wrong by Big Brown, or Big Brown should have overcome.
Comparing Big Brown to Afleet Alex is horrendously off. Rose did nothing to take Alex's faith and trust away .. instead, Rose stayed balaced on his horse, stayed out of his way, and the horse's confidence was bolstered. On the other hand, Big Brown's own jockey asked him to make a right turn into a competitor just 20 strides out of the gate .. and when Big Brown protested the request, his own jockey went to ripping his mouth apart for a couple of furlongs before ultimately sending him over the heels of yet another horse.
Anyone who has ever spent time in the saddle working with horses knows a split-second rider error can cause minutes, days or weeks of needed repair. With all that went wrong, it's understandable that in the final minute and a half - or so - there was not going to be a joint resolution for a positive outcome.
And yes, as all this was unfolding I knew it was no good, and as they entered the backstretch I knew there was hardly a chance Big Brown could over come what had just happened.
__________________
"You don't throw a whole life away because it's banged up a little," (from Seabiscuit)
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06-10-2008, 01:25 PM
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#82
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Manhattan
Posts: 3,826
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Observer
And yes, as all this was unfolding I knew it was no good, and as they entered the backstretch I knew there was hardly a chance Big Brown could over come what had just happened.
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People seem to be forgetting that the horse was a one to five shot. He should be MUCH the best. If he couldn't overcome a bit of trouble in the 1st 1/4 mile of the race, he was WAY overbet.
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06-10-2008, 01:32 PM
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#83
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Toronto
Posts: 4,962
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Observer
And yes, as all this was unfolding I knew it was no good, and as they entered the backstretch I knew there was hardly a chance Big Brown could over come what had just happened.
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That's quite a good trait to have, so kudos for knowing that.
I saw a horse loping along as happy as a clam and as relaxed as me in the lazy boy in the exact same spot that he won the other two legs. I thought he was winning by a football field against that sad bunch. Obviously I was wrong.
You guys are really going to enjoy betfair whenever it gets here in North America. You could make some serious in running money with that insight. You could have bet $1,000 against BB at the half for a measely $80 of liability. Hell of a good score.
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06-10-2008, 01:44 PM
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#84
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: Norfolk VA
Posts: 6,246
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Quote:
his own jockey went to ripping his mouth apart for a couple of furlongs before ultimately sending him over the heels of yet another horse
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Did he in fact rip his mouth apart? And how can you blame KD for BB being so keen that he almost ran up another horse' heels - wasn't KD trying to restrain BB from doing just that? As far as the bump with the other horse entering the turn, I didn't notice that BB broke stride at all, if anything it had a bigger impact on the horse that got bumped.
I'm not stating as fact that you are wrong here, I simply see other reasons as to why he ran poorly, ultimately we will never know for sure why BB didn't run his race. If Cordero were still riding I'll bet we would find out if BB can take a bump or two. If that's all it takes to get into BB's head, then don't be surprized if he doesn't get "bumped" again.
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06-10-2008, 01:45 PM
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#85
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DeanT
That's quite a good trait to have, so kudos for knowing that.
I saw a horse loping along as happy as a clam and as relaxed as me in the lazy boy in the exact same spot that he won the other two legs. I thought he was winning by a football field against that sad bunch. Obviously I was wrong.
You guys are really going to enjoy betfair whenever it gets here in North America. You could make some serious in running money with that insight. You could have bet $1,000 against BB at the half for a measely $80 of liability. Hell of a good score.
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Regardless of what happened prior to that point, I'd lay that $80 every time.
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06-10-2008, 01:58 PM
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#86
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Sierra Madre, California
Posts: 4,419
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I don't buy into the KD bad ride theory.
The Triple Crown is the problem.
In England they run the 2000 G. at One Mile second week in May.
The Derby, Epsom Derby is the 2nd week in June at One Mile and one quarter.
Our Ky. Derby the first week in May at 1 1/4 miles is too tough on young three year olds.
I believe the future performances of the vast majority of these horses who compete in the TC validate my theory.
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06-10-2008, 02:08 PM
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#87
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Toronto
Posts: 4,962
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
Regardless of what happened prior to that point, I'd lay that $80 every time.
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He was 1.30 before the race, so clearly less than that was fair odds when he was free and clear. I am not sure what I would have had him fair odds at the half or three q's. Maybe 1.12. Maybe 1.10. I guess something like that.
Regardless, chit happens in a race. No such thing as a sure thing, no matter how good they look as BB proved.
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06-10-2008, 02:22 PM
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#88
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Ohio
Posts: 1,307
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Observer
Obviously there will be 2 distinctly different views on this .. either Kent did wrong by Big Brown, or Big Brown should have overcome..
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How about another view that BB is not a very sound horse that was held together by PEDs and was asked to do too much in 5 weeks?
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06-10-2008, 02:32 PM
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#89
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velocitician
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 26,297
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Quote:
Originally Posted by garyoz
How about another view that BB is not a very sound horse that was held together by PEDs and was asked to do too much in 5 weeks?
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PEDs?
Is that some common knowledge abbreviation like ZIP code or COP?
__________________
"If this world is all about winners, what's for the losers?" Jr. Bonner: "Well somebody's got to hold the horses Ace."
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06-10-2008, 02:34 PM
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#90
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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Performance Enhancing Drugs.
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