I don't care about the "curse", I am picking Justify

[dilanesp]

I rarely bet the Derby. I find this race inscrutable most years, I feel I have no edge in the race, and I am not really into betting races I don't have a strong opinion on just to gamble.

But I think, this year, Justify is a very strong favorite and will be worth the 5 to 2 or 3 to 1 that I expect him to go off at.

The key to understanding the Derby is it is a normal horse race. Yes they carry 126 pounds. Yes they go 1 1/4 miles. Yes there is a big crowd. And yes there is a 20 horse field.

But all of the "special Derby statistics" that ruled Derby handicapping have been disproven. Dosage has been repudiated. The experimental free handicap is dead. You no longer need three prep races as a three year old, or more than 6 total starts. Geldings can win. The auxiliary gate is not cursed.

And there is no curse of Apollo. This is just the kind of small sample, heterogeneous data set BS that infects handicapping the Derby. The Derby is no different than any other horse race. It has a pace, it involves horses, ridden by jockeys, with prior form, workouts, prep races, current condition, trained by trainers, etc.

And when you analyze this race as a horse race, rather than with a desire to hit a big gambling score or based on mystical Derby oracle super special handicapping, Justify is obvious.

Justify has run three races. All three of them are good enough to win here. In addition, his form cycle is exactly what you expect from a very good improving 3 year old. Indeed, the most likely scenario is that he's going to improve his Beyer by 2 or 3 points off the Santa Anita Derby. Good 3 year olds improve.

In his last race, he not only beat Bolt D'Oro, an excellent horse, but he wouldn't even let Bolt D'Oro catch up to him. It was a devastating performance.

He is trained by Bob Baffert, who is the Sunny Jim Fitzsimmons or Ben and Jimmy Jones or Wayne Lukas of our day. Nobody in America is better at winning TC races and preparing his horses for these races.

He is ridden by Mike Smith, who is great in big money races.

He has tactical speed and can get himself a good position and will not be at the mercy of the pace and the trip.

He is a big strong horse. I saw him in the Santa Anita Derby. He is built like Easy Goer. No, he hasn't taken any punishment yet, but he sure looks like he can.

The reality is that he is unlikely to lose to most of these rivals. The vast majority of these horses are several lengths slower than he is. There are a handful of horses who have run one competitive race-- Good Magic's BC Juvenile and Bolt D'Oro's FrontRunner are two. But these horses need to run back to that race AND have Justify regress a couple of lengths.

The one horse who is a wildcard and might beat Justify is Mendelssohn. If he is as good as that UAE Derby looked like, he can compete. But he has to ship in from Dubai, his trainer doesn't have a lot of experience in the American TC like Baffert, and his win in Dubai was a perfect trip score and may have been dressed up.

So I am betting Justify. Sorry if he won't make you rich. But it seems to me that he is simply the most likely winner of this race and would be considered a standout if this race was not titled "the Kentucky Derby".

[SkunkApe]

I’m with you, brother.

And I’m not scared of Mendelssohn in the slightest.

[jocko699]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

I rarely bet the Derby. I find this race inscrutable most years, I feel I have no edge in the race, and I am not really into betting races I don't have a strong opinion on just to gamble.

But I think, this year, Justify is a very strong favorite and will be worth the 5 to 2 or 3 to 1 that I expect him to go off at.

The key to understanding the Derby is it is a normal horse race. Yes they carry 126 pounds. Yes they go 1 1/4 miles. Yes there is a big crowd. And yes there is a 20 horse field.

But all of the "special Derby statistics" that ruled Derby handicapping have been disproven. Dosage has been repudiated. The experimental free handicap is dead. You no longer need three prep races as a three year old, or more than 6 total starts. Geldings can win. The auxiliary gate is not cursed.

And there is no curse of Apollo. This is just the kind of small sample, heterogeneous data set BS that infects handicapping the Derby. The Derby is no different than any other horse race. It has a pace, it involves horses, ridden by jockeys, with prior form, workouts, prep races, current condition, trained by trainers, etc.

And when you analyze this race as a horse race, rather than with a desire to hit a big gambling score or based on mystical Derby oracle super special handicapping, Justify is obvious.

Justify has run three races. All three of them are good enough to win here. In addition, his form cycle is exactly what you expect from a very good improving 3 year old. Indeed, the most likely scenario is that he's going to improve his Beyer by 2 or 3 points off the Santa Anita Derby. Good 3 year olds improve.

In his last race, he not only beat Bolt D'Oro, an excellent horse, but he wouldn't even let Bolt D'Oro catch up to him. It was a devastating performance.

He is trained by Bob Baffert, who is the Sunny Jim Fitzsimmons or Ben and Jimmy Jones or Wayne Lukas of our day. Nobody in America is better at winning TC races and preparing his horses for these races.

He is ridden by Mike Smith, who is great in big money races.

He has tactical speed and can get himself a good position and will not be at the mercy of the pace and the trip.

He is a big strong horse. I saw him in the Santa Anita Derby. He is built like Easy Goer. No, he hasn't taken any punishment yet, but he sure looks like he can.

The reality is that he is unlikely to lose to most of these rivals. The vast majority of these horses are several lengths slower than he is. There are a handful of horses who have run one competitive race-- Good Magic's BC Juvenile and Bolt D'Oro's FrontRunner are two. But these horses need to run back to that race AND have Justify regress a couple of lengths.

The one horse who is a wildcard and might beat Justify is Mendelssohn. If he is as good as that UAE Derby looked like, he can compete. But he has to ship in from Dubai, his trainer doesn't have a lot of experience in the American TC like Baffert, and his win in Dubai was a perfect trip score and may have been dressed up.

So I am betting Justify. Sorry if he won't make you rich. But it seems to me that he is simply the most likely winner of this race and would be considered a standout if this race was not titled "the Kentucky Derby".

Very good post. I believe Justify also had a shoe issue is his last.

[storyline]

I think Justify is the best 3yo I've this seen this early in the year all-time.

The only horse that might beat him today is Bolt d'Oro and I'll have them in an exacta etc

Good luck

[f2tornado]

Good luck. I'm not sold on him but his fast closing fractions in previous forced me to include with others on the horizontal and vertical gimmicks. The slop may help his cause.

[PhantomOnTour]

Dilanesp...

We've had our disagreements about this, but you make strong case for Justify. My top two are Good Magic & Vino Rosso. They will be used over many in the exotics, including Justify.
I'd be a dishonest man if I said I didn't have a saved ex with Justify over my two choices. I must admit he looks formidable.

Best of luck to you

[dballard125]

I'll play a defensive ticket with him on top, but I can't key him in this slop. He doesn't break well anyway and he's never dealt with kickback...let alone muddy slop. Going to look for some better value elsewhere.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

Dilanesp...

We've had our disagreements about this, but you make strong case for Justify. My top two are Good Magic & Vino Rosso. They will be used over many in the exotics, including Justify.
I'd be a dishonest man if I said I didn't have a saved ex with Justify over my two choices. I must admit he looks formidable.

Best of luck to you

Thanks Phantom! You too!

(EDIT: I bet a future book wager on Vino Rosso last December in Vegas. So I would be quite happy if you turn out to be right. )

[Rex Phinney]

Good luck to you. I think Justify is going to completely meltdown.

[Michael]

I actually really really really like Justify but @ the current 3/1 I think it's a break even situation... and will likely be losing play bc of the rake. So betting justify to win is out of the question in my book.

As of now I'm in the Bolt D'oro camp in the 1 hole... as longs as I get 7/1. The current tote is sitting at 8/1.

I don't see value in the exacta pools with Justify. So I'm likely to polarize my bet and leave justify out and have him beat me in the slop. prob not the smartest strategy but it is.. a strategy ! gl everyone

[SecretAgentMan]

Nice write-ups & call, I was on it as well my friend.......I hope Justify wins the triple crown.

[dballard125]

Originally Posted by dballard125

I'll play a defensive ticket with him on top, but I can't key him in this slop. He doesn't break well anyway and he's never dealt with kickback...let alone muddy slop. Going to look for some better value elsewhere.

Thank God I back my other tickets up, keying Justify over Good Magic & Audible. Hit the exacta 2 1/2 times & a $1 tri. Still only cleared $190 on the race however.

[iceknight]

Good pick dilanesp!

[n.c]

fearless/self assured pick. Great oversized confident pick