HOY largely debatable after Classic

[v j stauffer]

Originally Posted by Bullet Plane

1) California Chrome- the remarks his connections made on the Triple trail were without Class!

2) Bayern: the way the horse won the BC classic, by shoving the main contenders out of the way, even if not called a foul... sure did stink!



I think it will be a very interesting voting year.

I would hope the two horses in question will not be rewarded...

Evidently you read the Enquirer for your PP's and watch TMZ for your live horse racing coverage.

OY!

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

The HOY vote is about which horse's body of work and accomplishments warrant the honor.

First who didn't do enough. Why is obvious so I'll not spell it out.

While all GREAT performers Shared Belief, Untapable and Main Sequence have outstanding resumes but not quite enough to be HOY material.

Clearly this is a two horse race between Bayern and California Chrome.

Who did the most?

BAYERN

Haskell
Pennsylvania Derby
Breeders Cup Classic

CALIFORNIA CHROME

Santa Anita Derby
Kentucky Derby
Preakness

Racing luck or lack of in the Classic means nothing. Last time I checked the month of May occurs during the YEAR so that means nothing. Voting who you handicap as the best horse means nothing. Never has. Giants vs Patriots? It's entirely about which candidate accomplished the most.

My vote would go to CALIFORNIA CHROME in one of the closest whackers in HOY voting history. Totally respect anyone who would side with BAYERN.

No truth to the rumor I would choose CC because he won the last stakes I ever called

Thank you for your well thought out post. Unfortunately................you're wrong. From my previous post:

Believe it or not, HOY may be decided by the Gr-1 Clark Handicap, Churchill
Downs Nov.28th. That's my call............

and trust me, CC will not go, CD and owners of CC both hate each other. Bayern won't risk what he just won in the Classic.

[v j stauffer]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

Thank you for your well thought out post. Unfortunately................you're wrong. From my previous post:
and trust me, CC will not go, CD and owners of CC both hate each other. Bayern won't risk what he just won in the Classic.

Your post says in your opinion HOY "may" be decided in the Clark. How does a speculative opinion lead to the conclusion I'm WRONG?

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

Your post says in your opinion HOY "may" be decided in the Clark. How does a speculative opinion lead to the conclusion I'm WRONG?

Happy days Vic, you found the "out" word in my post. You're a certifiable genius now.........You're still frickin' wrong.......Didn't change a damn thing.

[v j stauffer]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

Happy days Vic, you found the "out" word in my post. You're a certifiable genius now.........You're still frickin' wrong.......Didn't change a damn thing.

I am certifiable. The Genius part makes you WRONG.

What I don't know is a lot.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

I am certifiable. The Genius part makes you WRONG.

What I don't know is a lot.

We're two of kind then........We both made a call, now let's see who's right, even though it doesn't really matter......

[Valuist]

Horse of Year: 1) Bayern 2) Main Sequence

Horse of the Year is about accomplishments; not performance. If Bayern raced on inside biased tracks, that may matter in terms of judging his performances as a handicapper, but HoY is about accomplishments, and there, only the bottom line matters.

[v j stauffer]

Originally Posted by Valuist

Horse of Year: 1) Bayern 2) Main Sequence

Horse of the Year is about accomplishments; not performance. If Bayern raced on inside biased tracks, that may matter in terms of judging his performances as a handicapper, but HoY is about accomplishments, and there, only the bottom line matters.

I completely agree. All about accomplishments. Don't agree that 4 Grade 1 turf races is stronger than SA & KY Derby and Preakness.

[NY BRED]

Originally Posted by tucker6

The article spends most of the time off on a tangent about the BCC being called a world championship. His only point on Bayern is that as a handicapper, another horse would be favored the next time they raced. So what? CC keeps getting bet down and keeps losing. Losing by a neck is still losing. I personally do not value the TC series higher than the races in the second half of the year, when there are several opportunities for the 3 year olds to race with older horses. How many times do we see a horse mature from spring to fall. Plenty. Why should we cut off the 3 year old HOY race in June then?

TO MY POINT PER PREVIOUS POSTS.

THANKS FOR SHARING

[NY BRED]

There was a typo in my last post, I meant to state I'm in complete
agreement with the article from Racing Commentary on the
injustice of giving HOY to Bayern.

Regardless of the various arguments of who should be awarded
HOY, I'm hoping the VOTERS acknowledge the injustice of
the a^^%^holes named stewards who have stated the
bumping/slamming incident did not affect the outcome of the race,
which is an insult to the owners and trainers of the balance of the field.

My second point is an investigation or at the very least a public
interview with Mike Smith who apparently reversed his interview
minutes after the race, claiming Bayern cost him the race,

Politics to win more mounts from Baffert? Hopefully, that
statement will impact the Voters mind when they cast their ballots.

[Observer]

From start to finish, on the racetrack and throughout the year, Untapable easily handled her division. A quality of a true Horse of the Year champion.

Beginning in February, her 6 wins came from 7 starts this year, all in graded stakes. Untapable won 4 Grade 1 races, including the 2 most prestigious races for females - The Kentucky Oaks and The Breeders' Cup Distaff. Her other 2 Grade 1 wins are The Mother Goose and The Cotillion.

Untapable stepped out of her division once in an attempt against boys. In The G1 Haskell, she finished a well-beaten fifth behind Bayern, who clearly has blemishes throughout his 10 starts this year. In his 6 wins, only 4 are graded stakes, only 2 are Grade 1s.

Main Sequence was unbeaten in 4 starts this year, all Grade 1 races. But he was not clearly the best of the turf division.

Wise Dan had a miraculous season winning all 4 of his turf starts, 3 of which are Grade 1 races and the other a Grade 2 at Saratoga. Interrupted by nearly 4 months in the middle of his 4 wins, two-time Horse of the Year Wise Dan returned in Saratoga from colic surgery at the top of his game, only to have his season cut short by a fracture in October that eliminated him from a chance at taking The Breeders' Cup Mile for a 3rd consecutive year.

California Chrome certainly started the year on what looked to be the path to Horse of the Year, but has not won a race in 3 starts since The G1 Preakness in May.

Shared Belief was unbeaten in 4 starts this year prior to The Breeders' Cup Classic. But only 3 of those starts were graded stakes, the latter 2 being Grade 1 wins.

So Untapable did what the boys on dirt did within their division. She suffered a loss to them while they were taking turns losing to eachother throughout the year. In a year that carried turmoil and disarray within the divisions, dirt or turf, Untapable remained unflappable in her division.

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by Observer

From start to finish, on the racetrack and throughout the year, Untapable easily handled her division. A quality of a true Horse of the Year champion.

Beginning in February, her 6 wins came from 7 starts this year, all in graded stakes. Untapable won 4 Grade 1 races, including the 2 most prestigious races for females - The Kentucky Oaks and The Breeders' Cup Distaff. Her other 2 Grade 1 wins are The Mother Goose and The Cotillion.

Untapable stepped out of her division once in an attempt against boys. In The G1 Haskell, she finished a well-beaten fifth behind Bayern, who clearly has blemishes throughout his 10 starts this year. In his 6 wins, only 4 are graded stakes, only 2 are Grade 1s.

Main Sequence was unbeaten in 4 starts this year, all Grade 1 races. But he was not clearly the best of the turf division.

Wise Dan had a miraculous season winning all 4 of his turf starts, 3 of which are Grade 1 races and the other a Grade 2 at Saratoga. Interrupted by nearly 4 months in the middle of his 4 wins, two-time Horse of the Year Wise Dan returned in Saratoga from colic surgery at the top of his game, only to have his season cut short by a fracture in October that eliminated him from a chance at taking The Breeders' Cup Mile for a 3rd consecutive year.

California Chrome certainly started the year on what looked to be the path to Horse of the Year, but has not won a race in 3 starts since The G1 Preakness in May.

Shared Belief was unbeaten in 4 starts this year prior to The Breeders' Cup Classic. But only 3 of those starts were graded stakes, the latter 2 being Grade 1 wins.

So Untapable did what the boys on dirt did within their division. She suffered a loss to them while they were taking turns losing to eachother throughout the year. In a year that carried turmoil and disarray within the divisions, dirt or turf, Untapable remained unflappable in her division.

I do not agree at all about your views on Untapable. Although you are right about here dominating her division, she was also found inferior to open companies. Her connections seem to understand this and that's why the decided to not run her against the boys again. I would expect a female HOY to beat top tiered males and Untapable was not proven capable of doing so.. She is not Rachel, Havre or Zenyatta and there is no chance she will be elected HOY (not at least for this year)...

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by cj

Pure speculation, when it comes to awards, results should matter, not what ifs. It is debatable the track was speed favoring in my opinion. Early on the card, yes, no doubt in my opinion. But later? Texas Red...Judy the Beauty, Better Lucky, etc.

I mean, it is dirt. Shockingly, every time a few front runners win on dirt it does not make a track speed biased. The more racing I watch and listen to commentators and bettors alike, the more I'm convinced people label track biases on how their bets fared as much as what is really happening on the track.

I agree that most people are not very good at recognizing biases and use them as a excuse for their losers etc...

We would need a entire thread to discuss biases. I don't even want to have that discussion because that's one of the few areas I still seem to have a gambling edge.

But a lot of the disagreements come down to definitional issues. People label the same things differently.

What you often see at SA is not the same as what you often see at CD.

If SA is playing the way it often does, does that mean it's not biased?

If CD is playing the way it often does, does that mean it's not biased?

I would argue they both tend to be biased in different ways on a regular basis, but not relative to themselves, relative to the "norms" for dirt racing. I have bias notes for those 2 tracks way more often than most others.

Then there are degrees of bias.

Some people only note a bias when it's so strong it's dictating the results. IMO there are also biases that are just tilting the wheel.

In my notes, I called that day "S".

That means the track was more speed favoring than the average American racetrack, but the bias wasn't strong enough to totally dictate the results (that would be S+). It was strong enough to impact the results between similar horses.

[classhandicapper]

The standard for HOTY has generally been to favor dirt horses over turf horses and males over females unless the male dirt division was weak and there was total monster in another division.

Wise Dan, Zenyatta, Rachel, and to a lesser extent HDG were terrors and there haven't been many stand out dirt males recently. I don't think that's true this year. There are some good dirt male candidates. So I would eliminate the major turf horses and Untapable (despite them being excellent) because that has been the standard. I would focus on the 3yo males.

As good as Shared Belief is (you can make a case he's the best of them), I don't think he won enough big races to get the award.

That leaves Bayern and California Chrome.

It comes down to:

3 Grade 1 victories for CC vs 2 for Bayern.
Bayern winning the biggest strongest and most important race of the year.
Bayern beating CC 2-1 head to head.
How you feel about incorporating trips into the analysis.

I think Bayern is going to get the vote. That's who I would vote for, but I don't think he's the best 3yo, especially going 10F.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by DeltaLover

I do not agree at all about your views on Untapable. Although you are right about here dominating her division, she was also found inferior to open companies. Her connections seem to understand this and that's why the decided to not run her against the boys again. I would expect a female HOY to beat top tiered males and Untapable was not proven capable of doing so.. She is not Rachel, Havre or Zenyatta and there is no chance she will be elected HOY (not at least for this year)...

Not in a year like this, where there were NO dominant dirt males (nowhere near), in my opinion.

I don't see how ANYONE can get solidly behind Bayern, let alone California Chrome. I mean, come on man...California Chrome for HOY? Really?

That's the biggest joke going in my book at the moment...