For those keeping score:

[bisket]

Originally Posted by $w1fT

One of the best parts of the winter Aqueduct meet (and I completely agree with cj btw) is a break from the Ortiz bros.

Gulfstream in January and February offer the best overlays. Barns from Delaware, Jersey, Kentucky, and New York all at the same track. Most races offer multiple horses running against each other for the first time. It exploits all the problems of the predictive power of speed figures. Most every day players have already factored this. Saudi Crown had some of the best figures leading into the Breeders Cup Classic, and I didn’t see one professional handicapper even discuss the colt as a factor in the race. Not even Andy Beyer mentioned the horse before the race. He has two 106 beyer speed figures prior to the Classic and no one even thought he was an overlay at double digit odds…. Look at all the juicy betting opportunities in every day races with figures that are probably underlays.

[bisket]

Originally Posted by the little guy

Your streak is intact.

How long until you figure out you’re an easy mark?

[cj]

Originally Posted by bisket

Gulfstream in January and February offer the best overlays. Barns from Delaware, Jersey, Kentucky, and New York all at the same track. Most races offer multiple horses running against each other for the first time. It exploits all the problems of the predictive power of speed figures. Most every day players have already factored this. Saudi Crown had some of the best figures leading into the Breeders Cup Classic, and I didn’t see one professional handicapper even discuss the colt as a factor in the race. Not even Andy Beyer mentioned the horse before the race. He has two 106 beyer speed figures prior to the Classic and no one even thought he was an overlay at double digit odds…. Look at all the juicy betting opportunities in every day races with figures that are probably underlays.

The last I checked, the CRW teams get an unbelievable deal from GP. Good luck beating them with an even bigger edge than they get most other places. The odds drops are wild.

In addition, the rubber track has thrown a lot of chaos in, the turf course is being rebuilt AGAIN and who knows how long it will hold up, and the place is home to small barns that win a few then seem to vanish regularly. Maybe you can cash in on the Rainbow 6. Good luck!

I'm not sure what any of that had to do with speed figures. Most people didn't like Saudi Crown because 1 1/4 was a huge question mark and those that thought it was a problem were right. Speed figures actually help a great deal when races involve a lot of shippers.

[MJC922]

Originally Posted by cj

The last I checked, the CRW teams get an unbelievable deal from GP. Good luck beating them with an even bigger edge than they get most other places. The odds drops are wild.

In addition, the rubber track has thrown a lot of chaos in, the turf course is being rebuilt AGAIN and who knows how long it will hold up, and the place is home to small barns that win a few then seem to vanish regularly. Maybe you can cash in on the Rainbow 6. Good luck!

I'm not sure what any of that had to do with speed figures. Most people didn't like Saudi Crown because 1 1/4 was a huge question mark and those that thought it was a problem were right. Speed figures actually help a great deal when races involve a lot of shippers.

Yea the distance was a big part of it for me and the scenario. Maybe the horse can go that far when he's loose in the slop or something but I expected Arabian Knight would seriously compromise his chances of being able to continue on during the last eighth. Obviously there's no revelation coming from me here I even heard the commentator on the feed say the exact same thing and yet I more or less got even money for a simple 'insight'. I only needed Zandon to sit there scrape paint and basically show up, which true to me needing anything he ultimately didn't run a step but was at least still able to get past SC on a peg leg. Just a fantastic way to gamble IMO. Someone made money booking it otherwise I wouldn't have been able to do it, right? They picked two 12-1 morning liners and offered it -115 fixed odds on either. Move the line afterward if needed to balance out the action as money comes in, I didn't see it move in this case but they have that option. Would absolutely love for there to be 3 or 4 horse vs horse match-up prop bets offered like that on say the two or three biggest stakes races in the US each and every day or at least every weekend. Absolute game changer when you don't need peak efforts to cash and can handicap the thing thoroughly sometimes in seconds frankly instead of hours. Bet a thousand or two on something in the morning and then go live your life instead of being glued to monitors for hours. I do enough in front of monitors all week for my day job. During the week they rarely get my money into the pools because as I said there honestly just isn't time. For these kinds of bets there would be time, I'd make time, I'd have a thousand or two on the line every day instead of just waiting for Saturday to roll around where I can sit here for hours just for the possibility of finding something.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by bisket

Saudi Crown had some of the best figures leading into the Breeders Cup Classic, and I didn’t see one professional handicapper even discuss the colt as a factor in the race. Not even Andy Beyer mentioned the horse before the race. He has two 106 beyer speed figures prior to the Classic and no one even thought he was an overlay at double digit odds…. Look at all the juicy betting opportunities in every day races with figures that are probably underlays.

The distance was the major question mark for hm, but over and above that I think there are still horseplayers that look at who is beating with what trip.

You might ask yourself, “Despite what the figures say, how is a horse that was life and death to beat a 3yo like Dreamlike (eligible for a NW1 ALW) with Miracolo 3rd (Grade 3 type 3yo) going to get 10F under pressure against older Grade 1 winners? Even if you think Saudi Crown is a very good 3yo (imo he is) and some of the older horses are meh (imo they are), he was still taking a pretty big jump in class there.

[Bullet Plane]

Well, it is not true that nobody, picked him. Plenty picked him. He was the second pick of Michael Hammerly in the DRF. He was the top pick of the seminar I attended by one of tbe top handicappers in the country. Yes, they were in the minority. Because, the top speed figure in the race was WA. He was the obvious horse on class in the race. He was somewhat questionable on distance.

AK had a wide post, it did seem possible that SC might get to a uncontested lead unless AK gunned from the outside which would probably lead to a fast pace.

Anyway the BSF for the race came back very light, a 106. In the last 30 years only a couple classics have been that slow. It was a weak race. You know its weak when that Japanese horse can get within a length of winning. All he had on his resume was a win in the UAE derby in which he got a very mediocre 109 TF rating. Then another 1 1/4 lengths back is proxy, a grade 2 or 3 type horse.

Anyway, I guess WA is pointing to the Saudi cup, then the Dubai world cup, the Whitney again , and then a return to the BC classic. If he wins all those, I'd be shocked. Though, if you ask me who is going to beat him, I couldn't tell you. Not much out there right now. But somebody will develop and come along.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by Bullet Plane

Well, it is not true that nobody, picked him. Plenty picked him. He was the second pick of Michael Hammerly in the DRF. He was the top pick of the seminar I attended by one of tbe top handicappers in the country. Yes, they were in the minority. Because, the top speed figure in the race was WA. He was the obvious horse on class in the race. He was somewhat questionable on distance.

AK had a wide post, it did seem possible that SC might get to a uncontested lead unless AK gunned from the outside which would probably lead to a fast pace.

Anyway the BSF for the race came back very light, a 106. In the last 30 years only a couple classics have been that slow. It was a weak race. You know its weak when that Japanese horse can get within a length of winning. All he had on his resume was a win in the UAE derby in which he got a very mediocre 109 TF rating. Then another 1 1/4 lengths back is proxy, a grade 2 or 3 type horse.

Anyway, I guess WA is pointing to the Saudi cup, then the Dubai world cup, the Whitney again , and then a return to the BC classic. If he wins all those, I'd be shocked. Though, if you ask me who is going to beat him, I couldn't tell you. Not much out there right now. But somebody will develop and come along.

That's the thing though- the "handicap" division (not even correctly named anymore- there are few handicaps) is decimated because the good 3 year olds who would have in the past grown into older horses doing big things now all get retired.

So what you need to do to win the BC Classic depends on what the 3 year olds are doing. If it's American Pharoah's or Arrogate's year, you are going to have to run quite well. (California Chrome ran the best race of a very good career when he finished second to Arrogate.) On the other hand, this year the 3 year old crop was subpar, so the Classic turned up very weak.

Is there any evidence the Pegasus/Dubai/Saudi will come up stronger? If not, White Abarrio can do some damage.

[cj]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

Is there any evidence the Pegasus/Dubai/Saudi will come up stronger? If not, White Abarrio can do some damage.

I'll take whatever Japanese horses show up in the desert over him, including the two he just beat.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by cj

I'll take whatever Japanese horses show up in the desert over him, including the two he just beat.

I have to think the best is ahead for Derma Sotogake if he keeps running.

I wasn't exactly sure where Ushba Tesoro fit vs our older horses, but I thought he got a favorable setup in his win in the Dubai World Cup and wasn't as good as he looked. After what I saw in the BC Classic, I think he's just OK.

Who knows what other terrors they could send.

[Brass Hat]

Originally Posted by Bullet Plane

Well, it is not true that nobody, picked him. Plenty picked him. He was the second pick of Michael Hammerly in the DRF. He was the top pick of the seminar I attended by one of tbe top handicappers in the country. Yes, they were in the minority. Because, the top speed figure in the race was WA. He was the obvious horse on class in the race. He was somewhat questionable on distance.

AK had a wide post, it did seem possible that SC might get to a uncontested lead unless AK gunned from the outside which would probably lead to a fast pace.

Anyway the BSF for the race came back very light, a 106. In the last 30 years only a couple classics have been that slow. It was a weak race. You know its weak when that Japanese horse can get within a length of winning. All he had on his resume was a win in the UAE derby in which he got a very mediocre 109 TF rating. Then another 1 1/4 lengths back is proxy, a grade 2 or 3 type horse.

Anyway, I guess WA is pointing to the Saudi cup, then the Dubai world cup, the Whitney again , and then a return to the BC classic. If he wins all those, I'd be shocked. Though, if you ask me who is going to beat him, I couldn't tell you. Not much out there right now. But somebody will develop and come along.

Well, I also thought Saudi Crown would be there at the end and most of my play was an exacta with WA and Saudi Crown. Wrong.

Hammerly is Ok; didn't find out who Art Gropper or Brian Mulligan picked. In the comments in the PPs I was relieved to learn I could throw out one of the contenders 2022 Kentucky Derby over a year ago as it was a bad trip, or this insightful comment on two contenders in a race "stranger things have happened." That is good stuff.

I have believed for a long time that Art Gropper does not actually exist.

[Bullet Plane]

There might be some American horse . flying under the radar. Take Olympiad. He wasn't much at three. Though he did post a 105 BSF in an alowance sprint at satatoga. Then they put him in the cigar mile and he came in 4th. Then as a four year old, he really came into his own with a hell of a season.

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by Bullet Plane

There might be some American horse . flying under the radar. Take Olympiad. He wasn't much at three. Though he did post a 105 BSF in an alowance sprint at satatoga. Then they put him in the cigar mile and he came in 4th. Then as a four year old, he really came into his own with a hell of a season.

107 and he should have won the Cigar Mile.

[turfeyejoe]

I have believed for a long time that Art Gropper does not actually exist.
I know Art Gropper, so he's a real person.

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by turfeyejoe

I have believed for a long time that Art Gropper does not actually exist.
I know Art Gropper, so he's a real person.

The level of BS people post here sometimes has gotten worse.

[therussmeister]

Originally Posted by bisket

Gulfstream is way better.

Used to be. It wasn't last year and I'm not holding out hopes for this winter.