Derby longshot ?

[boys at tosconova]

raising cain vs sun thunder.

both of these horses couldn't seem to gain in the stretch on tt and vrfyng

if you watch the replay cain went wide early around the final turn thinking he could have a say in the race. but he flattened the stretch when tt / verify pulled away. the horse could not even get 3rd

sun thunder had the easier journey and waited, moved in the stretch and barely beat cain

neither really raced they can have an impact in the kd. just based on that race I like cain better between the two.

[boys at tosconova]

reincarnate vs rocket can.

both were disappointing in the ark.

rc didn't even jockey for early position and reincarnate didn't kick on going further.

awful sign there was a blanket finish for 2nd/3rd with king Russel finishing 2nd. if you don't like angel you sure as hell ain't gonna like these 2.

don't know how you can use other than a possible trip out horse that finds more in the stretch.

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by Aerocraft67

From a preliminary look at some basic factors, using Aragona's DRF value line to identify runners 20-1 or more:

• Confidence Game seems the best of the longshots—probably takes more money than 30-1 accordingly
• Hit Show, Lord Miles weak on speed and pace but fairly classy, could improve in sixth race and may appreciate the distance. Hit Show less compelling at 20-1 vs. 50-1 for Lord Miles.
• Reincarnate, Two Phil's a bit more exposed and less classy races, but good pace profiles. Phil has that big speed fig (which may get bet), Reincarnate looks to be the bigger price—and should be
• Mage surely takes more money than 20-1? It'll probably get more of mine.

Nonshots:

• Wild on Ice just doesn't figure. Hard toss.
• Rocket Can has some class and a little pace but pretty weak otherwise
• Sun Thunder looks to have biggest late run, nothing else, will burn money
• Raise Cain and Disarm, meh
• Continuar? Who knows.

refresh my memory the last time a wood horse hit the board in the KD?.

much better wood horses than these 2 have run up the track in the kd.

the wood horses are money in the bank, auto tosses now.

[Aerocraft67]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

raising cain vs sun thunder.

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

reincarnate vs rocket can.

if you don't like angel you sure as hell ain't gonna like these 2.

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

refresh my memory the last time a wood horse hit the board in the KD?.

Took another look at Reincarnate and that uninspiring Arkansas Derby performance. Hard to like, even among longshots.

He's not on my list, but I do wonder whether Sun Thunder regroups after wheeling back quickly between the La. Derby and the Blue Grass—or regresses a month later.

Indeed I don't like Angel of Empire. Looks to be too far back with iffy pace and distance ratings at single-digit odds.

One way to consider the Wood is that it's reputation helps buoy prices on runners coming out of it. Hit Show won the Withers (first 9f on the trail) and can probably grind out the distance. We're talking at least 20-1 here—I'd want a bigger price than Two Phil's or Mage. Lord Miles shouldn't be outdistanced either, and you'll get 50-1 to cover the risk. They both have some upside in their sixth race.

Maybe I'll give Disarm another look. Nothing really stands out, but another with upside in his sixth race, and he did run second at 9.5f in the La. Derby (longest prep on the American trail). Dam Sire Tapit is good for 7.6f AWD. Maybe he can hang around at 30-1?

[CheckMark]

HRN Super Screener Longshots (according to the video they posted)

Disarm

Two Phil's

[Michael]

Originally Posted by myohmyjustify

My longshot pick is Confidence Game.

Apparently Desormeaux's father passed away recently and Keith wasn't there for Confidence Game's work today. From the interviews I've seen... He's very high on the horse... talking triple crown plans.

As for my opinion... I think the value in the Derby is to play the double through the Oaks. I was looking at the euro betting sites last night and they have astronomical odds for the fillies. We're talking 14/1 on horses that should be a quarter of that.

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by Michael

Apparently Desormeaux's father passed away recently and Keith wasn't there for Confidence Game's work today. From the interviews I've seen... He's very high on the horse... talking triple crown plans.

As for my opinion... I think the value in the Derby is to play the double through the Oaks. I was looking at the euro betting sites last night and they have astronomical odds for the fillies. We're talking 14/1 on horses that should be a quarter of that.

that was a nice race in the slop in the rebel. beat a few good horses. verifying had problems that race but cg did beat reincarnate who's another that didn't' impresss next out. horse was in position and ran down a 35-1 and 70-1 while most the fig horses had nothing

looking further down the program you see a wire job vs rocket can in an allow race. would be more positive in rocket can raced better next out as well.

that wasn't the best race vs 2 Phils who beat him by over 5L in the lecomp

regardless of trainer/owner talk. the horse should be a price as not running after the rebel looks more like a weakness than a strength.

[myohmyjustify]

Originally Posted by Michael

Apparently Desormeaux's father passed away recently and Keith wasn't there for Confidence Game's work today. From the interviews I've seen... He's very high on the horse... talking triple crown plans.

As for my opinion... I think the value in the Derby is to play the double through the Oaks. I was looking at the euro betting sites last night and they have astronomical odds for the fillies. We're talking 14/1 on horses that should be a quarter of that.

Confidence Game is a legit long shot, along with a half-dozen others, which is why the Ky Derby is my favorite race!

As I mentioned in my original post, not racing since his win in the Rebel is troubling to me, but what can I do about that? I have a few bucks on him in the futures book at 25-1.

I just don't want to read or listen to videos and podcasts where he's touted as the "wiseguy" horse. If so, then I'll know he'll have no shot. Media "wiseguys" know very little.

[Mulerider]

Originally Posted by Aerocraft67

Maybe I'll give Disarm another look. Nothing really stands out, but another with upside in his sixth race, and he did run second at 9.5f in the La. Derby (longest prep on the American trail). Dam Sire Tapit is good for 7.6f AWD. Maybe he can hang around at 30-1?

If you assign any importance to late pace, and if you have any confidence in Bris's pace numbers, Disarm has recorded the highest LP figure of any horse in the field (one point better than Kingsbarns; both were set in the La. Derby).

The third best LP number in the field? Angel of Empire, with a 108 in the Arkansas Derby. That's a higher LP than anything recorded by Forte or Tapit Trice (or Two Phils, which AoE beat by 2.75 lengths in the Risen Star).

Just now drilling down in this stuff a little bit, and don't know how AoE will score out when I actually handicap it, but I'm thinking at this point it looks like I will probably need to use him in the exotics.

[Aerocraft67]

Originally Posted by myohmyjustify

Confidence Game is a legit long shot, along with a half-dozen others

not racing since his win in the Rebel is troubling to me, but what can I do about that? I have a few bucks on him in the futures book at 25-1.

I just don't want to read or listen to videos and podcasts where he's touted as the "wiseguy" horse. If so, then I'll know he'll have no shot.

Among the longshots, I have casual interest in a few others, but Confidence Game is my pick for sure. I think Mage and Two Phil's take money to be more midpriced contenders than longshots.

Aragona at DRF has him 30-1, along with Disarm and Reincarnate, 11th–13th choice. Maybe he's preferred among these three and displaces Hit Show for 10th. Hard to see him much below 20-1, so your future bet looks sound, but probably won't too much shorter on the day.

Lots of folks seizing upon the lack of recent prep, but Desormeaux is good for the 70-day race interval. His last race was in the slop, which literally muddies his form. Glass half full for a good price.

That said, he's entering his eighth race, so he's not entirely an unknown quantity, or hopelessly inexperienced. He has the best TFUS early pace rating in the field, and not at all the worst late. Decent speed, class, and factors for the distance. I'm betting this horse.

I'm sure they'll scrutinize his workout this weekend, but those reports always seem pretty favorable.

In terms of media attention, I just hope NBC doesn't make a spectacle of Desormeaux mourning his father. Sadly I'm not confident about that at all.

[Curln22]

Wild On Ice out injured training this AM.

Skinner IN

GL

[sovereign]

Originally Posted by Curln22

Wild On Ice out injured training this AM.

Skinner IN

GL

And there is the bomb winner.

Actually, my bomb would be Mandarin Hero if he gets in. I like him better than the other two Japanese imports. And the workout with those two was like last year's Japanese entrant. Could be a remake of last year's Derby because of those two.

[Michael]

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by Michael

So horses that will actually be in the race in Rocket Can/Reincarnate are the same price as a horse that has zero chance of running in Scoobie Quando? Newgate is 25/1?

Would love for Mage to be 20/1 come the opening of the gates.

[Robert Fischer]

Guessing that Confidence Name, Angel of Empire take some money. They are both reasonable horses to use 4th/3rd.

Confidence Game is the fun-name horse this year. Supposedly that matters a lot less due to CAW money, but I think he'll be lower odds than a lot of players seem to be projecting.

Angel of Empire looks like a mid-range price that wouldn't shock if he won.

Hit Show is another one to consdier. Depending on whether my name-theory plays out (hey look this is a message board and while I'm not always in absolutes I will bring up ideas that aren't herd approved) could be longer than most mentioned here in the Mid-long pricerange and Hitshow has a chance to run 4th/3rd. Lot of supertrainers and superowners in this Kentucky Derby.
HitShow has one of the hardest hitting superowners and same with the Trainer. They are going to pull out all the stops and health-willing, Hit Show will be as 'fit' as any we've been seeing (I'm talking Authentic level 'fitness).

Lord Miles was interesting in the Wood because he was the only horse in the Mucho Macho Man to do any running vs the grain(that and respecting the potency of the trainer). Was supposed to be a CRUSH in the Holy Bull but the syndicates and the public were smart that time (they are wrong often enough to win, forget what the demoralizing mid-wits whine about here and social media about them being perfect) well they were 'right' in the Holy Bull and hammered him down to 3-1, so it was a hard pass but the horse Lord Miles and the circumstances were a disappointing DUD.
Did bet him (inclusion not as the 'key') in the Tampa Derby at 25/1. Learned a little more about him not having a high ceiling.
In the Wood I made some light wagers singling Lord Miles exactly 3rd at 59/1. I had already won money on a Brittany Russell move-up earlier in the card where there was a lot of luck/favorable circumstances that played out. I was otherwise broke and happily taking that money home with me and not betting more that $10 on the Wood. The sonofabitch ran better than 3rd and won the Wood payouts were generous and everyone was shocked. I was pissed that I didn't single both the Russell filly and both the Russell Wood move-up with the Saffie overlooked long shot in the Wood and just spent on the pick 5.
I know it wasn't that hard because in addition to the lucky win with the Russell move-up filly I had some very lean P3s multiple times (think it was an obvious chad Brown duo in leg3 IDK)....
But having followed Lord Miles, he's not good relative to this field. Hit Show is more dangerous out of the same race.

If we talk mid-range prices, I don't think Derma Sotogake(sp?) will be 10-1, but if he is 10-1, he's a key in multiple board slots including 'win'.
There's some 'unknown' stuff with this horse that is scary to key with.
There's also a fairly strong contingent of high quality supertrained horses (Forte, Verifying, Angel of Empire, Practical Move), but Derma Sotogake is also a supertrainer situation. It's just that when you have 4 or 5 of them, the potency of one of them is less dominant and you're facing a formidable opposition along with the trip and race dynamics.
I don't see this as a soft pace, and I see it as more of a danger to my key than as an advantage if he's sent to set the pace.