Ky Derby Future - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

arw629 · 02-07-2015, 04:49 PM

I have never placed a future derby bet and I know the takeout is awful and everyone hates CD...so whatever audience is left does anyone have any spec plays? I was glad to see Prospective Park in the pool after his recent race which appeared quite visually impressive to me....I was happy to see him at 58-1 yesterday and bummed to see 36-1 today....that seems like a terrible bet to me as do most of the options on the list at such a short number.....i did notice the all others up to 2-1 and was thinking about maybe throwing some cash there at that price.....soooo thoughts?!?!?

letswastemoney · 02-07-2015, 04:52 PM

Firing Line is currently 46/1 and has about the same talent as Dortmund.

arw629 · 02-07-2015, 04:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

Firing Line is currently 46/1 and has about the same talent as Dortmund.

I assumed he was cold on the board bc ppl want to see the race this afternoon before making a decision

Hoofless_Wonder · 02-07-2015, 06:44 PM

The Derby Futures bet can be interesting, but IMHO is limited to some narrow conditions:

- a proven 2YO whose connections will point to the Derby, and getting decent odds
- an unproven horse who has decent breeding and potential to move forward at huge odds
- a proven 3YO who performs poorly in one of the major preps with an excuse, and is offering decent odds and still pointing for the Derby

While some horses are huge underlays in the pools because of a recent sharp win, and yet with no shot on Derby Day, until the futures are offered with a "bet against" option on individual horses (which will never happen), it's tough to find any value in the pool. You're better off sitting on your wallet until Derby Day itself, and of course taking no risk when your favorite contender gets hurt and knocked off the trail.

Last year I placed a small bet on Shared Belief in the first pool, and thought I was pretty clever until he was knocked off the Derby trail. I didn't make any wagers in the 2nd, 3rd or 4th pools.

This year I put a small wager on Frosted in pool 1 at 53-1 (another Tapit colt like Prospect Park), and at least he's still in training. Nothing else sticks out in pool 2 with much value, but any horse 25-1 or more that you feel will put in some good efforts getting to the Derby may be worth a small investment for entertainment purposes.....

Cratos · 02-08-2015, 01:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

Firing Line is currently 46/1 and has about the same talent as Dortmund.

Their last race against each might give that perspective, but it is not that close. Dortmund is a huge horse with a "second gear" which is exceptional; especially going long.

Bettowin · 02-08-2015, 01:21 AM

I watched the race from the head on view and Firing Line had it but Dortmund pushed him over mentally and physically to win the race. IMO. Good for Dortmund bad for FL in his next race. He got punched in the mouth and lost.

Stoleitbreezing · 02-10-2015, 05:26 PM

I think both are really good horses, but you have to wonder how much both races in which they battled down the lane took on each of them.

Stillriledup · 02-10-2015, 05:35 PM

These are tough discussions to have because what you are seeing on the track are not only races that aren't being performed on the Churchill surface, but they're not being performed under the Ky racing rules and very tight prerace security you see at the Derby. Its completely different, a lot of this stuff you see from other tracks just won't translate to the CD surface under the Ky jurisdiction on Derby day...and that's not even taking into consideration the massive crowd and huge field and how that affects the runners.

Maybe Dortmund can flourish at CD due to his size he can push people around, you always want to see a horse who can "overcome" an obstacle in a race, show some fighting power too, horses who have been in battles are usually the right kind of horse you want to follow to Churchill in early May...Dortmund has shown great versatility, he's gotten to the lead soon and battled back, and he was rated off the lead at Los Al and gutted it out and passed horses on the outside.

Robert Fischer · 02-10-2015, 05:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by arw629

.....soooo thoughts?!?!?

pick a horse or two that you like and that you think has a good shot to make the starting gate.

If you choose to play it, just try to enjoy following along with it.

Robert Fischer · 02-10-2015, 06:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bettowin

I watched the race from the head on view and Firing Line had it but Dortmund pushed him over mentally and physically to win the race. IMO. Good for Dortmund bad for FL in his next race. He got punched in the mouth and lost.

as far as what i'd call 'talent' Dortmund is on another planet from Firing Line and almost any other horse.
Firing Line is almost as 'fast' as Dortmund currently, and if Firing Line turns out to not have a problem on his right lead in the stretch, he could be in the Derby.

But Dortmund is a different animal. Sometimes players have to trust their eyes. Dortmund has a longer stride than all of these horses. He's a lanky horse that's still growing, and his stride is slower than these other horses, but he's just as fast due to his stride length. He's gaining muscle every time we see him. He's showing improved gate speed. It's just a matter of whether or not he stays healthy and how brilliant his speed tops out at when/if he reaches his physical peak. He could be a g2 horse that struggles with injuries or he could be an all-time great, where everyone online claims that it was obvious that he was a giant iron horse from day one, or anywhere in between. Just have to see how it goes.

But as far as the OP's question?
Future bets are usually bad bets, but if they are fun for you, it's worth more than $2 or whatever the cost.
Form your own opinion, you probably don't want others, and this is the internet. You may get crazy opinions like the paragraph above.

cnollfan · 02-10-2015, 06:24 PM

As has been said elsewhere, each of the horses nominated should have its own individual odds to win the Derby instead of just 23 choices and a field. With 500 choices, some horses would be 5,000-1 or higher. The technology is there to handle such bets -- no different than a trifecta or pick 3, really.

As the Derby futures now exist, I avoid all straight bets but do place some small exactas on combinations among my contenders that appear to be underbet. Probably not wise, but entertaining. If it comes down to El Kabeir and Prospect Park in the stretch, I'll be pleased.

ReplayRandall · 02-10-2015, 06:27 PM

This may be one of the most competitive, quality group of 3 yr. olds in quite some time. With the older division looking much stronger than usual, horse racing just might make some new fans.........DERBY PICK- UPSTART

horses4courses · 02-10-2015, 06:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cnollfan

As has been said elsewhere, each of the horses nominated should have its own individual odds to win the Derby instead of just 23 choices and a field. With 500 choices, some horses would be 5,000-1 or higher. The technology is there to handle such bets -- no different than a trifecta or pick 3, really.

As the Derby futures now exist, I avoid all straight bets but do place some small exactas on combinations among my contenders that appear to be underbet. Probably not wise, but entertaining. If it comes down to El Kabeir and Prospect Park in the stretch, I'll be pleased.

I like the idea, but with reservations.
How many pools would there be, and how long would you keep them open?

cnollfan · 02-10-2015, 06:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by horses4courses

I like the idea, but with reservations.
How many pools would there be, and how long would you keep them open?

I was thinking of the same structure as now exists -- three or four separate pools, each open for a long weekend a month apart. Having one pari-mutuel future pool open for weeks would defeat the purpose, as it wouldn't allow you to lock in high odds on a horse that blossoms later.

horses4courses · 02-10-2015, 06:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cnollfan

I was thinking of the same structure as now exists -- three or four separate pools, each open for a long weekend a month apart. Having one pari-mutuel future pool open for weeks would defeat the purpose, as it wouldn't allow you to lock in high odds on a horse that blossoms later.

Agreed.
Even with hundreds of entries, there always has to be a "Field" available.
Still, it's a much better alternative than what exists now.

Could lead to some really huge scores, too.