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Old 04-22-2019, 12:20 AM   #781
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Cool HONG KONG - SHA TIN MON- 4/22/19

Good morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet!
I’m posting my pre-race selections for another very competitive card that looks to offer some decent value. There are 10 races at Sha Tin with 5 to be run on Turf and 5 on the Dirt:
(from top Class to bottom) - (4)-Class-3, (5)-Class-4, (1)-Class-5

Post Time Race #1 – 1:00 AM MON EST

I’ve taken a look at the M/L’s in combination with the early odds and used a unique static tote analysis to come up with the preliminary picks for each race. Later, the Live tote analysis will certainly shed more light on these and any others I might have missed.

The latest tote action (by 4 mins. to post) may reveal some things that cause final substitutions among the Top 3 picks from the Bottom 3 picks. However, the overall picks generally look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.
This morning’s card looks wide open!

BTW the Top 3 picks have continued to produce some nice Dutch Win returns when the combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%. When I can’t make a Dutch Win bet I’ll generally pay more attention to the Quinellas and perhaps even a Triple play if the combined values add up to decent return.

Good Luck if you’re playing!

R#1- 1650M C4 (8.25F)D… 7-2-4 W/ 3-12-10 …1:00 AM


R#2- 1400M C5 (7F)T….… 2-12-1 W/ 4-6-3 .…..1:30 AM


R#3– 1400M C4 (7F)T..…. 5-1-3 W/ 2-12-9 …..2:00 AM


R#4- 1200M C4 (6F)D..…. 4-7-1 W/ 8-6-11..….2:30 AM


R#5- 1000M C3 (5F)T…... 9-13-2 W/ 5-7-11……3:00 AM


R#6- 1800M C4 (9F)T…... 10-2-7 W/ 14-6-11 …3:35 AM


R#7– 1600M C4 (8F)D….. 4-7-1 W/ 6-5-9 ….....4:05 AM


R#8- 1200M C3 (6F)D…… 2-5-3 W/ 9-7-4 .….….4:35 AM


R#9- 1200M C3 (6F)D..… 10-11-2 W/ 3-5-1…….5:10 AM


R#10- 1400M C3 (7F)T... 1-13-3 W/ 4-9-11 …..5:45 AM
.
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Old 04-22-2019, 01:08 AM   #782
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Quote:
R#1- 1650M C4 (8.25F)D… 7-2-4 W/ 3-12-10 …1:00 AM
7-1-10-5– Big Dutch Win 109% Profit Margin/
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Old 04-22-2019, 01:21 AM   #783
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UPDATE: R#2- 1400M C5 (7F)T….… 2-12-1 W/ 10-6-3 .…..1:30 AM
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Old 04-22-2019, 01:39 AM   #784
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Quote:
UPDATE: R#2- 1400M C5 (7F)T….… 2-12-1 W/ 10-6-3 .…..1:30 AM
3-2-4-6– Dutch Loss 105% Profit Margin/ $18.70 Quinella
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Old 04-22-2019, 02:08 AM   #785
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Quote:
R#3– 1400M C4 (7F)T..…. 5-1-3 W/ 2-12-9 …..2:00 AM
1-12-4-3– Dutch Win 28% Profit Margin-Passed / $31.40 Quinella
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Old 04-22-2019, 02:24 AM   #786
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UPDATE: R#4- 1200M C4 (6F)D..…. 4-7-1 W/ 8-6-2..….2:30
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Old 04-22-2019, 02:39 AM   #787
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Quote:
UPDATE: R#4- 1200M C4 (6F)D..…. 4-7-1 W/ 8-6-2..….2:30 AM
4-6-8-10– Big Dutch Win 101% Profit Margin/ $24.20 Quinella & $130.80 Triple / ALL of that one!
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Old 04-22-2019, 03:09 AM   #788
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Quote:
R#5- 1000M C3 (5F)T…... 9-13-2 W/ 5-7-11……3:00 AM
9-11-2-5– Dutch Win 5% Profit Margin-Passed/ $13.20 Quinella & $143.20 Triple / ALL of that one!
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Old 04-22-2019, 11:07 AM   #789
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Quote:
R#6- 1800M C4 (9F)T…... 10-2-7 W/ 14-6-11 …3:35 AM
11-5-8-13– Dutch Loss 90% Profit Margin/


Quote:
R#7– 1600M C4 (8F)D….. 4-7-1 W/ 6-5-9 ….....4:05 AM
7-9-1-4– Dutch Win 20% Profit Margin-Passed / $335.30 Quinella & $2,396.60 Triple / ALL of that one!

Quote:
R#8- 1200M C3 (6F)D…… 2-5-3 W/ 9-7-4 .….….4:35 AM
3-9-14-5– Big Dutch Win 181% Profit Margin / $29.10 Quinella


Quote:
R#9- 1200M C3 (6F)D..… 10-11-2 W/ 3-5-1…….5:10 AM
11-5-1-9– Dutch Win 38% Profit Margin-Passed / $41.10 Quinella & $485.20 Triple / ALL of that one!

Quote:
R#10- 1400M C3 (7F)T... 13-3-4 W/ 9-11-1 – Subbed #4 (betting fav) w/#1 – not much action …..5:45 AM
4-2-12-3– Dutch Win 26% Profit Margin-Passed/


It turned out to be another profitable card. My Dutch Win bets produced an O.A. Profit margin of 46% and came from hitting 3 of 5 playable races. Also hit were a number of decent Quinellas and Triples.

.
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Old 04-23-2019, 11:28 PM   #790
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Hong Kong Jockey Club at Happy Valley. April 24, 2019… 66th race meeting of the 2018-2019 year.
Weather report: 76 Degrees Clear 20% of rain Wind: S 5 to 10 mph.

Post time: 7.15am ET, 4.15 am PT. Rail: Course “C”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20190424_starter_all.pdf
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html SpeedPRO
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard
http://www.hkracing.com/interactive/ Pace Ratings

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 2 Perfect To Play (3-1) Ran a decent third in his last and picks up the services of ‘Magic Man’ Moreira, BUT he ran TWO days ago! In the 40 years I have been around the track I do not remember a horse running from the day before yesterday.

Horses coming out of key races running tonight (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 447 (Winners: 6th, 9th & 11th, Second: 2nd)
Race 2 Victorious Leader (10-1)

Race 532 (Winners: 4th & 5th, Second: 1st)
Race 2 My Family (9-1)
Race 5 Gift Of Lifeline (even)

Race 490 (Winners: 8th & 9th, Second: 2nd)
Race 5 Golden Glory (25-1)

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 3 Wealthy Fortune (16-1)
Race 5 Flying Monkey (13-1)
Race 5 Regency Darling (46-1)
Race 8 Fairy Twins (14-1)

Trainer/Jockey/Horse winning combos running tonight:
Race 7 Happy Dragon (8-5)
Race 8 Frustrated (7-5)

Horses for courses running tonight:
None

Distance specialists running tonight:
None

Class specialists running tonight:
Race 8 Keep Moving (25-1)

Last race watch list horses running tonight:
Race 4 Jumbo Prize (5-2) His debut race for the Casper Fownes barn while getting the services of defending and leading rider Zac Purton, and with him on board the betting public unloaded on him sending him off as the 7-5 favourite. He broke well but heading into the short turn he started fighting Zac for the bit, and a tugging war commenced the entire backstretch. He was in tight going two wide in the turn then entering the stretch Purton moved him to the 5 path but his inexperience started to show and raced very green while caught up in traffic. He started to fade with 100 metres left but the most important aspect was Zac never really asked for him to run, a couple love taps on his shoulder and one whack on his hip but nothing other than that.

Race 6 Fat Turtle (3-1) He won his first try in Hong Kong in an all out battle with Split Of A Second after winning 3 out of 6 races in his homeland of Australia. In here he had two strikes against him before the gates opened, he drew the 13 hole and the undefeated Champion's Way for John Size. He broke well and went straight for the lead while being bothered by Leung on Gintoki who broke just outside him, it took Teetan 500 metres (halfway thru the turn) to get his position over to the rail. All the while this was going on Moreira was sitting and waiting to pounce on the chalk right behind the duel going on, he didn't have much for the winner but did dig in after he was passed, a nice effort considering the circumstances he had to endure. Hopefully he'll get a better draw and not that monster he had to face here next time out.

Race 8 Golden Dash (11-1) Went off as the second betting choice behind Voyage King, at the break he was a step slow then was bumped around by the favourite and eventual winner High Five losing a couple lengths to the field. Entering the stretch he was boxed in on the rail in the third flight behind the duel going on in the front end, mid-stretch he was very hesitant splitting the two front runners that were beginning to tire, then again didn’t want to go thru on the rail. Afterwards was passed in the stretch by two closers finishing less than two lengths off of them, not a bad finish considering that he severely bled in the race.

Past watch list runners running tonight:
Race 4 Play Wise (7-1)
Race 5 Glittering Armour (10-1)
Race 7 Dynamic Eagle (6-1)

Key Plays:
Race 4 Jumbo Prize (5-2)
Race 7 Happy Dragon (8-5)

Longshots:
Race 2 You Have My Word (10-1)
Race 8 Golden Dash (11-1)
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Old 04-24-2019, 12:35 AM   #791
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Cool HONG KONG – HAPPY VALLEY - WED - 4/24/19

Good morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet!
I’ve posted my pre-race selections for another very competitive card that looks to offer some decent value. There are 8 races at Happy Valley all to be run on Turf:
(from top Class to bottom) - (3)-Class-3, (3)-Class-4, (2)-Class-5

Post Time Race #1 – 7:15 AM WED EST

I’ve taken a look at the M/L’s in combination with the early odds and used a unique static tote analysis to come up with the preliminary picks for each race. Later, the Live tote analysis will certainly shed more light on these and any others I might have missed.
The latest tote action (by 4 mins. to post) may reveal some things that cause final substitutions among the Top 3 picks from the Bottom 3 picks. However, the overall picks generally look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.

BTW the Top 3 picks have continued to produce some nice Dutch Win returns when the combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%. When I can’t make a Dutch Win bet I’ll generally pay more attention to the Quinellas and perhaps even a Triple play if the combined odds values of the selected entries add up to decent return.

Good Luck if you’re playing!

R#1- 1200M C5 (6F)T..…6-8-1 W/ 7-12-10 …...7:15 AM


R#2- 1650M C4 (8.25F)T…8-9-3 W/ 6-11-4 ….…7:45 AM


R#3–1800M C5 (9F)T…....6-2-1 W/ 11-5-9 …...8:15 AM


R#4- 1200M C4 (6F)T…...4-11-12 W/ 5-2-8 …...8:45 AM


R#5- 1200M C4 (6F)T….....3-6-4 W/ 5-12-8….…9:15 AM


R#6- 1200M C3 (6F)T…....11-7-2 W/ 4-3-6 …..9:45 AM


R#7– 1800M C3 (9F)T…...2-5-8 W/ 7-10-1 …..10:15 AM


R#8- 1000M C3 (5F)T…...6-9-12 W/ 1-4-11 …..10:50 AM
.
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Old 04-24-2019, 05:55 PM   #792
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HONG KONG – HAPPY VALLEY - WED - 4/24/19 RESULTS

Instead of just posting a line item with the Results I thought it might be of interest to see the Live Tote Analysis in action and how it impacts the preferred selections, especially since it was so productive today.

Quote:
R#1- 1200M C5 (6F)T..…6-8-2 W/ 7-12-10 – Subbed #2 (solid action) for #1 (out for ltd. action) …...7:15 AM
2-6-12-9– Big Dutch Win 124% Profit Margin/ $45.30 Quinella & $351.60 Triple Bx / ALL of that one!

LIVE TOTE ANALYSIS
– RACE #1:
Code:
 
Entry 
VALUE
@4 MTP	 	PICKS	FIN
521	1	OUT	 
409	2	3	1
537	3	 	 
538	4	 	 
415	5	 	 
391	6	1	2
393	7	4	 
468	8	2	 
595	9	 	4
356	10	6	 
543	11	 	 
350	12	5	3 	 	 
 	 	 	 
421	PAR	 	 
Quote:
R#2- 1650M C4 (8.25F)T…8-9-3 W/ 6-11-4 – Lots of Very Late heavy action on the Winner #6….…7:45 AM
6-4-8-3– Dutch Loss 38% Profit Margin-Passed / $71.50 Quinella & $415.20 Triple Bx / ALL of that one!

LIVE TOTE ANALYSIS – RACE #2:
Code:
 
Entry
VALUE	 	 	 
@4 MTP    	PICKS	FIN
554	1	 	 
462	2	 	 
274	3	3	4
471	4	6	2
638	5	 	 
338	6	4	1
534	7	 	 
284	8	1	3
387	9	2	 
498	10	 	 
436	11	5	 
704	12	 	 
 	 	 	 	 	 	 
349  	PAR
.	 	 
Quote:
R#3–1800M C5 (9F)T…....6-2-1 W/ 11-5-9 – Lots of late action on #3, #7, #9 & #11 …...8:15 AM
6-5-3-10– Dutch Win 83% Profit Margin/ $47.10 Quinella

LIVE TOTE ANALYSIS – RACE #3:
Code:
 
Entry
VALUE	 	 	 
@4 MTP	 	PICKS	FIN
510	1	3	 
269	2	2	 
359	3	 	3
401	4	 	 
425	5	5	2
251	6	1	1
395	7	 	 
544	8	 	 
370	9	6	 
578	10	 	4
494	11	4	 
414	12	 	  	 	 
 	 	 	 
347	PAR	 	 
.	 	 
Quote:
R#4- 1200M C4 (6F)T…...4-11-12 W/ 5-2-8 …...8:45 AM
11-5-9-12– Dutch Win 97% Profit Margin/ $9.90 Quinella

LIVE TOTE ANALYSIS – RACE #4:
Code:
 
Entry
VALUE	 	 	 
@4 MTP	 	PICKS	FIN
353	1	 	 
419	2	5	 
386	3	 	 
501	4	1	 
246	5	4	2
806	6	 	 
716	7	 	 
498	8	6	 
438	9	 	3
743	10	 	 
219	11	2	1
464	12	3	4
 	 	 	 
322	PAR	
. 	 
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Old 04-24-2019, 08:28 PM   #793
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Thumbs up HONG KONG – HAPPY VALLEY - WED - 4/24/19 RESULTS

Quote:
R#5- 1200M C4 (6F)T….....3-6-4 W/ 5-12-8 – No action on the Winner & Placer ….…9:15 AM
7-1-3-8– Dutch Loss 43% Profit Margin - Passed/

LIVE TOTE ANALYSIS – RACE #5:
Code:
 
Entry
VALUE	 	 	 
@4 MTP	 	PICKS	FIN
535	1	 	2
666	2	 	 
203	3	1	3
320	4	3	 
322	5	4	 
452	6	2	 
502	7	 	1
445	8	6	4
550	9	 	 
476	10	 	 
639	11	 	 
318	12	5	 
 	 	 	  	 	 
328	PAR	 	 
.

Quote:
R#6- 1200M C3 (6F)T…....11-9-2 W/ 4-3-6 Subbed #9 (solid heavy action) for #7 (out for no action) …..9:45 AM
9-2-3-12– Dutch Win 40% Profit Margin - Passed/ $19.70 Quinella & $351.60 Triple Bx / ALL of that one!

LIVE TOTE ANALYSIS – RACE #6:
Code:
 
Entry
VALUE	 	 	 
@4 MTP	 	PICKS	FIN
717	1	 	 
213	2	3	2
471	3	5	3
351	4	4	 
863	5	 	 
463	6	6	 
463	7	out	 
469	8	 	 
356	9	2	1
431	10	 	 
340	11	1	 
422	12	 	4
 	 	 	 	 	 	 
339	PAR	 	 
.

R#7– 1800M C3 (9F)T…...2-10-8 W/ 7-5-1 - Subbed #10 (good action) for #5 (with ltd. action) But No action on the Huge Winner & Placer …..10:15 AM
12-6-2-10– Dutch Loss 66% Profit Margin/

LIVE TOTE ANALYSIS – RACE #7:
Code:
 
Entry
VALUE	 	 	 
@4 MTP	 	PICKS	FIN
334	1	6	 
230	2	1	3
654	3	 	 
712	4	 	 
441	5	5	 
484	6	 	2
515	7	4	 
475	8	3	 
357	9	 	 
349	10	2	4
589	11	 	 
657	12	 	1
 	 	 	  	 	 
346	PAR	 	 
.

Quote:
R#8- 1000M C3 (5F)T…...1-9-12 W/ 6-4-11 - Subbed #1 (solid heavy action on the Favorite) for #6 (with limited action) …..10:50 AM
1-5-12-10– Dutch Win 28% Profit Margin - Passed/

LIVE TOTE ANALYSIS – RACE #8:
Code:
 
Entry
VALUE	 	 	 
@4 MTP	 	PICKS	FIN
150	1	1	1
584	2	 	 
372	3	 	 
439	4	5	 
459	5	 	2
466	6	4	 
412	7	 	 
505	8	 	 
255	9	2	 
300	10	 	4
458	11	6	 
302	12	3	3 	 	 	 
	 	 	 
278	PAR	 	 
.
It was another profitable card. My Dutch Win bets produced an O.A. Profit margin of 55% and was produced from hitting 3 of 4 playable races. Also hit were a number of Quinellas with decent value.
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Old 04-24-2019, 08:53 PM   #794
AltonKelsey
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YES!

It was a great and profitable card. I was able to make all the last minute substitutions and collect on the same wagers .




Can't wait until the next card.
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Old 04-25-2019, 11:44 PM   #795
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Thumbs up Overall Dutch Win Profit Margins thru 4/24/19

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro View Post
After taking a look at the M/L’s in combination with the early odds and using a unique static tote analysis I’m able to come up with the preliminary picks for each race. Later, the Live tote analysis will certainly shed more light on these and any others I might have missed. The latest tote action (by 4 mins to post) may reveal some things that cause final substitutions among the Top 3 picks. The Top 3 have continued to produce some nice Dutch Win returns when the combined odds produce Profit Margins are higher ^ than 50%. If not the race becomes an automatic Pass.
These are the documented results for the selections I've posted on PA for the last 66 race cards at both Sha Tin and Happy Valley. This is a continuation from page 32, post #474.
Code:

3-ENTRY	DUTCH	WIN	RESULTS
		PROFIT	MARGINS
		% 	% 
DATE	DAY	SHA-TIN	HAP-VALLEY
9/2/18	SUN	41	
9/5/18	WED		73
9/9/18	SUN	34	
9/12/18	WED		98
9/16/18	SUN	CANCELLED	
9/19/18	WED		CANCELLED
9/22/18	SAT	-44	(YIELDING)
9/26/18	WED		62
10/1/18	MON	41	
10/3/18	WED		65
10/7/18	SUN	78	
10/10/18 WED		25
10/13/18 SAT	43	
10/18/18 WED		82
10/21/18 SAT	52	
10/24/18 WED		36
10/28/18 SUN		-13
10/31/18 WED	25	
11/4/18	SUN	-2	
11/7/18	WED		34
11/10/18 SAT	75	
11/14/18 WED		98
11/18/18 SUN	45	
11/21/18 WED		47
11/25/18 SUN	30	
11/28/18 WED		42
12/2/18	SUN	66	
12/5/18	WED		75
12/9/18	SUN	0	
12/12/18 WED		58
12/15/18 SAT	37	
12/19/18 WED		0
12/23/18 SUN	81	
12/26/18 WED		30
12/29/18 SUN	-25	
1/1/19	WED	65	
1/6/19	SUN	53	
1/9/19	WED		8
1/12/19	SAT	39	
1/16/19	WED		146
1/20/19	SUN	-45	
1/23/19	WED		40
1/27/19	SUN	51	
1/30/19	WED		66
2/2/19	SUN	0	
2/7/19	THURS	44	
2/10/19	SUN	65	
2/13/19	WED		63
2/17/19	SUN	47	
2/20/19	WED		85
2/24/19	SUN	68	
2/27/19	WED		41
3/2/19	SAT	3	
3/6/19	WED		89
3/10/19	SUN	67	
3/13/19	WED		39
3/17/19	SUN	68	
3/20/19	WED		57
3/24/19	SUN	26	
3/27/19	WED		155
3/31/19	SUN	31	
4/3/19	WED	10	
4/7/19	SUN	51	
4/10/19	WED		54
4/14/19	SUN	-26	
4/17/19	WED		-38
4/22/19	MON	46	
4/24/19	WED		55
		SHA-TIN	HAP-VALLEY
TOTAL AVG PROFIT 34      56
TOTAL AVG PROFIT BOTH TRKS 45
			
TOTAL	FOR 66	RACE DAYS	
.
Some have inquired as to what my motivation is for posting on this thread. As one can imagine, I thoroughly enjoy the racing in Hong Kong. I have no problem sharing my selections from the sophisticated tote analysis I use. I’m certainly not giving away any of its intricate operational features for obvious reasons. Also I enjoy proving a point (particularly to those who scoff at the idea of following the flow of money): That there are other ways to beat this game besides using any one of a myriad of handicapping techniques. What’s most important to me is being able to use a simple betting scheme that consistently produces some very enticing results. I hope that perhaps there are some who also enjoy following along this successful journey by taking advantage of many opportunities.
Good Luck!
.
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