Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Handicapping Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 11-18-2017, 12:53 PM   #121
jay68802
Registered User
 
jay68802's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,110
Aqueduct Race #5:


Tiffanys Freud 15-1


Have a pretty unreliable group. Did not finish her last rast tha well.The two efforts before that can win this.
jay68802 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-18-2017, 01:36 PM   #122
jay68802
Registered User
 
jay68802's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,110
Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802 View Post
Aqueduct Race #5:


Tiffanys Freud 15-1


Have a pretty unreliable group. Did not finish her last rast tha well.The two efforts before that can win this.
Scratch

Race #6:


Wicked Trick 10-1

Trainer does not win much because of moves like the last race and putting this guy in a grade 3. Should be a lot more competitive here with Franco up and a solid pace by the ,,.
jay68802 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-18-2017, 03:22 PM   #123
TheOracle
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
M E Casse’s horses have been giving a return of 34% since 2014 per $2 win place and show wager on the Turf at Aqueduct!!!



Casse has this in the 8th race
#10 Monster Bea

This one might be one to watch today at Aqueduct!!!
TheOracle is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-18-2017, 10:33 PM   #124
TheOracle
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
Casse came through for us today with #10 Monster Bea even though it was a 2nd place finish it paid $24.50 across the board not too shabby for hitting the board!!!



You are now getting a 50% return on Casse's horses on the Turf at Aqueduct!!!

Let's keep an eye on Casse's barn on the Turf for the remainder of the Aqueduct season and in April for next year!!!
TheOracle is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-19-2017, 10:32 AM   #125
TheOracle
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
Hey Jay

Long shots will have to get past most of these today at Aqueduct it looks very chalky today as there are many with Morning Lines less than 3-1

Code:
RowNum:	Date:	Race:	PgmNum:	Horse:	RaceCond:	Distance:	Trainer:	Odds:	Surface:
1	11-19-2017	1st race	1	Shidoshi (KY)	Maiden Claiming	Six Furlongs	D A Cannizzo	5/2#	Dirt
2	11-19-2017	1st race	1A	Love Your Buttons (KY)	Maiden Claiming	Six Furlongs	D A Cannizzo	5/2#	Dirt
3	11-19-2017	1st race	4	Fooch (KY)	Maiden Claiming	Six Furlongs	W A Ward	9/5#	Dirt
4	11-19-2017	2nd race	3	Conquest Bigluck E (KY)	Claiming	One Mile	L Rice	2/1#	Dirt
5	11-19-2017	2nd race	7	Arbitrator (KY)	Claiming	One Mile	C Clement	5/2#	Dirt
6	11-19-2017	3rd race	5	Lokis Vengeance (NY)	Stakes	Seven Furlongs	L Rice	5/2#	Dirt
7	11-19-2017	3rd race	6	Gold for the King (NY)	Stakes	Seven Furlongs	C Baker	2/1#	Dirt
8	11-19-2017	4th race	8	Fast Boat (KY)	Maiden Special Weight	Six Furlongs	C Clement	8/5#	Turf
9	11-19-2017	4th race	3	Blinded Vision (KY) (MTO)	Maiden Special Weight	Six Furlongs	G P Gullo	5/2#	Turf
10	11-19-2017	5th race	1	For Greater Glory (KY)	Claiming	One Mile	D Jacobson	9/5#	Dirt
11	11-19-2017	5th race	1A	Raagheb (KY)	Claiming	One Mile	D Jacobson	9/5#	Dirt
12	11-19-2017	5th race	5	Mills (KY)	Claiming	One Mile	B N Levine	5/2#	Dirt
13	11-19-2017	6th race	2	Flash Trading (KY) (MTO)	Allowance	One And One Sixteenth Miles	J P Terranova II	5/2#	Turf
14	11-19-2017	6th race	2B	Halloween Horror (KY) (MTO)	Allowance	One And One Sixteenth Miles	J P Terranova II	5/2#	Turf
15	11-19-2017	7th race	4	Church Social (KY)	Allowance	One Mile	C R McGaughey III	2/1#	Turf
16	11-19-2017	7th race	8	Just Got Out (ON) (MTO)	Allowance	One Mile	L Rice	5/2#	Turf
17	11-19-2017	8th race	3	Favorable Outcome (KY)	Allowance Optional Claiming	Six And One Half Furlongs	C C Brown	6/5#	Dirt
18	11-19-2017	9th race	10	Culture Carrier (KY)	Maiden Special Weight	One And Three Eighth Miles	C C Brown	7/5#	Turf
Let’s see what happens after scratches!!!
TheOracle is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-20-2017, 11:51 AM   #126
jay68802
Registered User
 
jay68802's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,110
Parx Race #7:


Take the Stromboli 12-1

I know, he is 1 for 23 lifetime, and he likes to run 2nd and 3rd. The good news is that all of them are 1 for lifetime. Trainer is acceptable, and this guy improved after a bad run, had a little break, and the last workout is strong in this field. The jockey has been on before and has got a average speed figure of 82 on this guy, and that figure can win in this cheap field.
jay68802 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-20-2017, 11:28 PM   #127
jay68802
Registered User
 
jay68802's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,110
Parx Race #7:


Imasuperstar 10-1

Is the trainer solid? Check. Can the jockey ride a horse with this running style? Check. I think the trainer made a mistake with this guy in his last. This guy is a bred to be a sprinter, and the cut back to 5 1/2 today is perfect. Hope the track plays like yesterday and the speed on the inside holds.
jay68802 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-21-2017, 05:28 AM   #128
FakeNameChanged
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,176
Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802 View Post
Parx Race #7:


Imasuperstar 10-1

Is the trainer solid? Check. Can the jockey ride a horse with this running style? Check. I think the trainer made a mistake with this guy in his last. This guy is a bred to be a sprinter, and the cut back to 5 1/2 today is perfect. Hope the track plays like yesterday and the speed on the inside holds.
Very tough race IMO. Englehart is a known long shot trainer (by me). The Popularity is a former Baffert horse who won 14 months ago, but Irad comes down to ride him for a good trainer. The Giant Trick should also be contesting the pace with your pick and Love Rules.
__________________
One of the downsides of the Internet is that it allows like-minded people to form communities, and sometimes those communities are stupid.

Last edited by FakeNameChanged; 11-21-2017 at 05:29 AM.
FakeNameChanged is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-21-2017, 08:47 AM   #129
Bennie
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,011
Looks like a tough race to me too. The horse has improved since blinks came off 2 races back and can sit dream trip inside just off the pace. The horse off for over a year, bet but not chalk first time for Baffert but Servis/Ortiz combo makes you worried. The horse off for 8 months, best races seem to be off track and has been beaten by the twice in the past. The horse is 2nd blinks on,showed improved speed and strong workout makes me think this horse will be sent early. The horse reclaimed by Serey just ran 10 days ago, almost equaled his top number. Will either regress slightly or Serey is striking while the iron is hot by running back on short rest. Can sit outside stalking. Personally I would not bet this race unless there is a scratch of the or and then use the horse as my key first and second with who ever is left between the . just my opinion.
Bennie is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-21-2017, 10:40 AM   #130
jay68802
Registered User
 
jay68802's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,110
Good points from both of you, so just to play devils advocate.

First time against winners is the drawback.

Off over a year and first time against winners, two strikes

Is scary just because he will be up front, but best races have been against claimers or state breds

The most dangerous because of running style, has not faced claimers and seems to be on a good race, bad race, good race pattern. Second choice behind the because of lower morning line odds.

Off 120 days then a hard fought race with a unusually high speed figure, and back in 10 days. Big bounce candidate.
jay68802 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-21-2017, 10:56 AM   #131
Bennie
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,011
All good reasons to pass such a race. Saw that on TVG/NJbets site their #1 pick is . Just to throw another monkey wrench into the mix.
Bennie is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-21-2017, 11:12 AM   #132
jay68802
Registered User
 
jay68802's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,110
But why "pass" a race where as a handicapper, I have narrowed a race down to a 10-1 and a 8-1? Of course the choice to play will be made when you see what the public has bet and then make your choice. But at this moment this race remains an attractive possibility.
jay68802 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-21-2017, 03:03 PM   #133
FakeNameChanged
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,176
Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802 View Post
But why "pass" a race where as a handicapper, I have narrowed a race down to a 10-1 and a 8-1? Of course the choice to play will be made when you see what the public has bet and then make your choice. But at this moment this race remains an attractive possibility.
You musta hammered down to 3-1. GL
__________________
One of the downsides of the Internet is that it allows like-minded people to form communities, and sometimes those communities are stupid.
FakeNameChanged is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-21-2017, 03:42 PM   #134
jay68802
Registered User
 
jay68802's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,110
Quote:
Originally Posted by Whosonfirst View Post
You musta hammered down to 3-1. GL
Did not "hammer" because of odds, and saved some money. But not liking the favorite helped a lot. Good news is that the tri and super were easy to hit by liking the , and look at the race discussion we had, the top 4 horses in that race are all mentioned. Wheeling the and using the makes $'s.

How I played the race:

WPS: $20/$20/$10 Total: $50.00

$5 Exacta Box: / Total: $40.00

$1 Tri Wheel: / Total: $36.00

$.50 Super Wheel: / Total: $48.00

Total Bet: $174.00

Total Returned: $979.55

If the odds on the would have been 6-1, It would have been a different story and a lot more $ wasted.
jay68802 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-21-2017, 04:38 PM   #135
FakeNameChanged
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,176
Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802 View Post
Did not "hammer" because of odds, and saved some money. But not liking the favorite helped a lot. Good news is that the tri and super were easy to hit by liking the , and look at the race discussion we had, the top 4 horses in that race are all mentioned. Wheeling the and using the makes $'s.

How I played the race:

WPS: $20/$20/$10 Total: $50.00

$5 Exacta Box: / Total: $40.00

$1 Tri Wheel: / Total: $36.00

$.50 Super Wheel: / Total: $48.00

Total Bet: $174.00

Total Returned: $979.55

If the odds on the would have been 6-1, It would have been a different story and a lot more $ wasted.
Great betting on your part. I always feel a little "dirty" when my horse loses and I still win thru decent bets or just dumb luck.
__________________
One of the downsides of the Internet is that it allows like-minded people to form communities, and sometimes those communities are stupid.
FakeNameChanged is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 04:14 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.