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11-18-2017, 12:53 PM
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#121
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,110
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Aqueduct Race #5:
Tiffanys Freud 15-1
Have a pretty unreliable group. Did not finish her last rast tha well.The two efforts before that can win this.
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11-18-2017, 01:36 PM
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#122
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,110
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802
Aqueduct Race #5:
Tiffanys Freud 15-1
Have a pretty unreliable group. Did not finish her last rast tha well.The two efforts before that can win this.
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Scratch
Race #6:
Wicked Trick 10-1
Trainer does not win much because of moves like the last race and putting this guy in a grade 3. Should be a lot more competitive here with Franco up and a solid pace by the , , .
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11-18-2017, 03:22 PM
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#123
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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M E Casse’s horses have been giving a return of 34% since 2014 per $2 win place and show wager on the Turf at Aqueduct!!!
Casse has this in the 8th race
#10 Monster Bea
This one might be one to watch today at Aqueduct!!!
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11-18-2017, 10:33 PM
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#124
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Casse came through for us today with #10 Monster Bea even though it was a 2nd place finish it paid $24.50 across the board not too shabby for hitting the board!!!
You are now getting a 50% return on Casse's horses on the Turf at Aqueduct!!!
Let's keep an eye on Casse's barn on the Turf for the remainder of the Aqueduct season and in April for next year!!!
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11-19-2017, 10:32 AM
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#125
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Hey Jay
Long shots will have to get past most of these today at Aqueduct it looks very chalky today as there are many with Morning Lines less than 3-1
Code:
RowNum: Date: Race: PgmNum: Horse: RaceCond: Distance: Trainer: Odds: Surface:
1 11-19-2017 1st race 1 Shidoshi (KY) Maiden Claiming Six Furlongs D A Cannizzo 5/2# Dirt
2 11-19-2017 1st race 1A Love Your Buttons (KY) Maiden Claiming Six Furlongs D A Cannizzo 5/2# Dirt
3 11-19-2017 1st race 4 Fooch (KY) Maiden Claiming Six Furlongs W A Ward 9/5# Dirt
4 11-19-2017 2nd race 3 Conquest Bigluck E (KY) Claiming One Mile L Rice 2/1# Dirt
5 11-19-2017 2nd race 7 Arbitrator (KY) Claiming One Mile C Clement 5/2# Dirt
6 11-19-2017 3rd race 5 Lokis Vengeance (NY) Stakes Seven Furlongs L Rice 5/2# Dirt
7 11-19-2017 3rd race 6 Gold for the King (NY) Stakes Seven Furlongs C Baker 2/1# Dirt
8 11-19-2017 4th race 8 Fast Boat (KY) Maiden Special Weight Six Furlongs C Clement 8/5# Turf
9 11-19-2017 4th race 3 Blinded Vision (KY) (MTO) Maiden Special Weight Six Furlongs G P Gullo 5/2# Turf
10 11-19-2017 5th race 1 For Greater Glory (KY) Claiming One Mile D Jacobson 9/5# Dirt
11 11-19-2017 5th race 1A Raagheb (KY) Claiming One Mile D Jacobson 9/5# Dirt
12 11-19-2017 5th race 5 Mills (KY) Claiming One Mile B N Levine 5/2# Dirt
13 11-19-2017 6th race 2 Flash Trading (KY) (MTO) Allowance One And One Sixteenth Miles J P Terranova II 5/2# Turf
14 11-19-2017 6th race 2B Halloween Horror (KY) (MTO) Allowance One And One Sixteenth Miles J P Terranova II 5/2# Turf
15 11-19-2017 7th race 4 Church Social (KY) Allowance One Mile C R McGaughey III 2/1# Turf
16 11-19-2017 7th race 8 Just Got Out (ON) (MTO) Allowance One Mile L Rice 5/2# Turf
17 11-19-2017 8th race 3 Favorable Outcome (KY) Allowance Optional Claiming Six And One Half Furlongs C C Brown 6/5# Dirt
18 11-19-2017 9th race 10 Culture Carrier (KY) Maiden Special Weight One And Three Eighth Miles C C Brown 7/5# Turf
Let’s see what happens after scratches!!!
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11-20-2017, 11:51 AM
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#126
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,110
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Parx Race #7:
Take the Stromboli 12-1
I know, he is 1 for 23 lifetime, and he likes to run 2nd and 3rd. The good news is that all of them are 1 for lifetime. Trainer is acceptable, and this guy improved after a bad run, had a little break, and the last workout is strong in this field. The jockey has been on before and has got a average speed figure of 82 on this guy, and that figure can win in this cheap field.
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11-20-2017, 11:28 PM
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#127
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,110
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Parx Race #7:
Imasuperstar 10-1
Is the trainer solid? Check. Can the jockey ride a horse with this running style? Check. I think the trainer made a mistake with this guy in his last. This guy is a bred to be a sprinter, and the cut back to 5 1/2 today is perfect. Hope the track plays like yesterday and the speed on the inside holds.
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11-21-2017, 05:28 AM
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#128
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,176
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802
Parx Race #7:
Imasuperstar 10-1
Is the trainer solid? Check. Can the jockey ride a horse with this running style? Check. I think the trainer made a mistake with this guy in his last. This guy is a bred to be a sprinter, and the cut back to 5 1/2 today is perfect. Hope the track plays like yesterday and the speed on the inside holds.
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Very tough race IMO. Englehart is a known long shot trainer (by me). The Popularity is a former Baffert horse who won 14 months ago, but Irad comes down to ride him for a good trainer. The Giant Trick should also be contesting the pace with your pick and Love Rules.
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Last edited by FakeNameChanged; 11-21-2017 at 05:29 AM.
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11-21-2017, 08:47 AM
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#129
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,011
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Looks like a tough race to me too. The horse has improved since blinks came off 2 races back and can sit dream trip inside just off the pace. The horse off for over a year, bet but not chalk first time for Baffert but Servis/Ortiz combo makes you worried. The horse off for 8 months, best races seem to be off track and has been beaten by the twice in the past. The horse is 2nd blinks on,showed improved speed and strong workout makes me think this horse will be sent early. The horse reclaimed by Serey just ran 10 days ago, almost equaled his top number. Will either regress slightly or Serey is striking while the iron is hot by running back on short rest. Can sit outside stalking. Personally I would not bet this race unless there is a scratch of the or and then use the horse as my key first and second with who ever is left between the . just my opinion.
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11-21-2017, 10:40 AM
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#130
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,110
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Good points from both of you, so just to play devils advocate.
First time against winners is the drawback.
Off over a year and first time against winners, two strikes
Is scary just because he will be up front, but best races have been against claimers or state breds
The most dangerous because of running style, has not faced claimers and seems to be on a good race, bad race, good race pattern. Second choice behind the because of lower morning line odds.
Off 120 days then a hard fought race with a unusually high speed figure, and back in 10 days. Big bounce candidate.
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11-21-2017, 10:56 AM
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#131
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,011
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All good reasons to pass such a race. Saw that on TVG/NJbets site their #1 pick is . Just to throw another monkey wrench into the mix.
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11-21-2017, 11:12 AM
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#132
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,110
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But why "pass" a race where as a handicapper, I have narrowed a race down to a 10-1 and a 8-1? Of course the choice to play will be made when you see what the public has bet and then make your choice. But at this moment this race remains an attractive possibility.
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11-21-2017, 03:03 PM
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#133
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,176
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802
But why "pass" a race where as a handicapper, I have narrowed a race down to a 10-1 and a 8-1? Of course the choice to play will be made when you see what the public has bet and then make your choice. But at this moment this race remains an attractive possibility.
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You musta hammered down to 3-1. GL
__________________
One of the downsides of the Internet is that it allows like-minded people to form communities, and sometimes those communities are stupid.
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11-21-2017, 03:42 PM
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#134
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,110
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Whosonfirst
You musta hammered down to 3-1. GL
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Did not "hammer" because of odds, and saved some money. But not liking the favorite helped a lot. Good news is that the tri and super were easy to hit by liking the , and look at the race discussion we had, the top 4 horses in that race are all mentioned. Wheeling the and using the makes $'s.
How I played the race:
WPS: $20/$20/$10 Total: $50.00
$5 Exacta Box: / Total: $40.00
$1 Tri Wheel: / Total: $36.00
$.50 Super Wheel: / Total: $48.00
Total Bet: $174.00
Total Returned: $979.55
If the odds on the would have been 6-1, It would have been a different story and a lot more $ wasted.
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11-21-2017, 04:38 PM
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#135
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,176
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802
Did not "hammer" because of odds, and saved some money. But not liking the favorite helped a lot. Good news is that the tri and super were easy to hit by liking the , and look at the race discussion we had, the top 4 horses in that race are all mentioned. Wheeling the and using the makes $'s.
How I played the race:
WPS: $20/$20/$10 Total: $50.00
$5 Exacta Box: / Total: $40.00
$1 Tri Wheel: / Total: $36.00
$.50 Super Wheel: / Total: $48.00
Total Bet: $174.00
Total Returned: $979.55
If the odds on the would have been 6-1, It would have been a different story and a lot more $ wasted.
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Great betting on your part. I always feel a little "dirty" when my horse loses and I still win thru decent bets or just dumb luck.
__________________
One of the downsides of the Internet is that it allows like-minded people to form communities, and sometimes those communities are stupid.
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