|
|
08-05-2010, 06:22 PM
|
#16
|
BetMix User
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Boynton Beach, FL
Posts: 1,108
|
lsosa54:
Quote:
Folks, that particular race had 8 first time starters and 2 horses who had run. Volcker had I think 2 available pace lines and Seattle had 1. I think just about any program would have those two on top unless they had some algorithm to rate first timers.
|
What you say may be so but I haven't seen anybody post this race, nevertheless before the fact and does not take into account the other 3 or 4 winning races that day and for the mostpart paid double figure prices to win.
Also realize that as I have stated ,this was done with a basic demo with no advanced features.
I fail to realize what the purpose of your post tries to infer.
Evidently the public did not see what you saw after the fact.
Last edited by Partsnut; 08-05-2010 at 06:24 PM.
|
|
|
08-05-2010, 06:39 PM
|
#17
|
Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 486
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Partsnut
lsosa54:
What you say may be so but I haven't seen anybody post this race, nevertheless before the fact and does not take into account the other 3 or 4 winning races that day and for the mostpart paid double figure prices to win.
Also realize that as I have stated ,this was done with a basic demo with no advanced features.
I fail to realize what the purpose of your post tries to infer.
Evidently the public did not see what you saw after the fact.
|
I'm not bashing the program, I recently bought it and I'm putting it through its paces, I'll have a full review in a month or so. But.
Look at your screen shot, see all those zeros? the program can't do anything with those zeros. there's no information there to evaluate. The two horses with the best information just happened to be the two who won. There may be some way for someone to handicap that race, but Zambuto's program out of the box isn't it. I ran that race through HandiF.A.S.T and got the same results, but there's no way I would bet that, because it's a gamble. There are far too many unknowns. Joe's program may be useful, (right now I'm finding it kludgy & counterintuitive, but maybe that's just me) but this is a poor choice of a race to demonstrate its utility.
__________________
--------------------------------------------------------------Bet the rent!! (Don't bet the rent.)
|
|
|
08-05-2010, 06:40 PM
|
#18
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 514
|
My point is that posting an example race where only 2 of the 10 horses can be evaluated means nothing. It may be a fantastic program and I hope folks make a million bucks with, but this particular race means nothing. 8 horses could not be rated. I thought it was clear enough.
|
|
|
08-05-2010, 07:27 PM
|
#19
|
BetMix User
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Boynton Beach, FL
Posts: 1,108
|
lsosa54
Quote:
horses can be evaluated means nothing. It may be a fantastic program and I hope folks make a million bucks with, but this particular race means nothing. 8 horses could nMy point is that posting an example race where only 2 of the 10 ot be rated. I thought it was clear enough
|
Lou, I didn't post the race for any other reason then using it as an example.
Evidently, you feel my choice of an example race was poor.
You are entitled to your opinion.
I could have just as easily posted the other 3 or 4 winners I had for that day.
I did post them on my web page (before the fact).
redeye007 posted his success with the full blown version and judging by my success with the demo, I decided to buy the software with all it's advanced features. I feel it's a great value.
The only Interest I have in the software is that of a licensed owner and winning.
Nothing more and nothing less. End of story. period end.
That's all she wrote. Case closed.
Last edited by Partsnut; 08-05-2010 at 07:29 PM.
|
|
|
08-06-2010, 05:45 PM
|
#21
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 514
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by redeye007
|
Absolutely not - keep building that bankroll!
|
|
|
08-06-2010, 07:36 PM
|
#22
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: Spaghetti Junction and Frustration Blvd.
Posts: 1,901
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by redeye007
|
Keep Rock'in on and do what you are do'in Redeye007...
Have a great weekend and keep tearing it up..
__________________
Warm Regards,
Vinnie
"All Human error is impatience; a premature renunciation of method"- F. Kafka
|
|
|
08-06-2010, 08:48 PM
|
#23
|
Veteran
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 7,139
|
I tried this program's demo several years ago and at first was impressed. The program was coming up with some nice ones. So I decided it was worth checking out more closely. That's when I found a bug in the system. I wish I could remember what exactly it was but it was major enough to invalidate any positive results. I emailed Joe and he recognized what I was talking about but at that time said he had no solution to it.
He used to have a message board and I think I posted the problem there as well. I don't see a message board now. Correct me if I'm wrong. Also does this program still require that massive database download? I do remember that that's where the problem was. The database itself had incorrect information. Something to the effect of giving horses credit for races they didn't run or no credit for races they did run. Maybe he corrected it by now but the example Partsnut posted reminded me of the quirks in the program.
|
|
|
08-09-2010, 05:21 AM
|
#24
|
Bet small...win BIG!
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Nevada
Posts: 2,072
|
Here's another idea for self tuning. create 4 values for purse ranges, cheap, low medium, high medium, and feature. for example at Del Mar cheap purses would be 0-21000, low med would be 22000-40000, high med would be 41000-59000, and feature would be 60000 - and up. then go into the database manager and enter the purse value. for races in the cheap range enter 20000, for races in the med low enter 30000, for races in the med high enter 50000, and for races in the feature range enter 100000. now you can segment by these 4 purse values in self tune and further isolate the distance and race type subsets as well for more precise models.
|
|
|
08-11-2010, 05:50 PM
|
#25
|
Bet small...win BIG!
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Nevada
Posts: 2,072
|
My testing indicates using the broad purse range for medium races. more tris and supers can be had. so for Del Mar I'm using 0-21000 cheap, 22000-59000 medium, 60000- up feature. this looks like the best way to me anyway to self tune. exotic results don't include purse values so you'll have to enter them yourself in the database or use the charts which do include them.
|
|
|
08-15-2010, 10:04 AM
|
#26
|
BetMix User
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Boynton Beach, FL
Posts: 1,108
|
I was very impressed with the demo so I bought the software and I am very impressed with the software and Joe Zambutos great support as well.
I am familiarizing myself with the many features this software has to offer.
Today, I am testing the computer picks for Saratoga. I fine tuned my database (4 days) as best as I could. I am attaching the computer picks for anyone that wishes to view them. I concentrate on win betting and the top 2 listed horses in each race. Just follow the link: http://www.box.net/shared/8pkjts55au
Let's see how it does.
Last edited by Partsnut; 08-15-2010 at 10:08 AM.
|
|
|
08-15-2010, 11:17 AM
|
#27
|
Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 488
|
Hey Partsnut
If I'm not mistaken, I believe you use EquiSim as one of your tools. I was wondering how this program compares to ES.
I have tried the Equisim demo and really like the "formula view", I make a collection of expressions to hunt some specific spot plays thru out a card. I'm curious if "custom expression builder" section of this software is similar and how easy to use.
I would like to hear from Redeye also on this particular aspect.
Thanks
Chris
|
|
|
08-15-2010, 12:19 PM
|
#28
|
BetMix User
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Boynton Beach, FL
Posts: 1,108
|
cdax:
Quote:
If I'm not mistaken, I believe you use EquiSim as one of your tools. I was wondering how this program compares to ES.
I have tried the Equisim demo and really like the "formula view", I make a collection of expressions to hunt some specific spot plays thru out a card. I'm curious if "custom expression builder" section of this software is similar and how easy to use.
I would like to hear from Redeye also on this particular aspect.
Thanks
Chris
|
Hi Chris, yes I have Equisim and it's a very good piece of software.
It's hard for me to compare it to The Zambuto Software because the features and operation of the softwares are so different.
I like the reports, the database features and predictiveness of Zambutos Software and the many options it has. The custom expressions builder allows you to imput 4 custom expressions for each criteria file you create
Last edited by Partsnut; 08-15-2010 at 12:23 PM.
|
|
|
08-15-2010, 01:03 PM
|
#29
|
Bet small...win BIG!
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Nevada
Posts: 2,072
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by cdax
If I'm not mistaken, I believe you use EquiSim as one of your tools. I was wondering how this program compares to ES.
I have tried the Equisim demo and really like the "formula view", I make a collection of expressions to hunt some specific spot plays thru out a card. I'm curious if "custom expression builder" section of this software is similar and how easy to use.
I would like to hear from Redeye also on this particular aspect.
Thanks
Chris
|
Creating custom expressions adds another dimension to my handicapping process. using it is very simple as explained in the help section. if you believe certain handicapping factors have a positive impact on the selection process you can create that factor either a simple one factor expression or a compound expression string using multiple factors and different weights can be assigned to each factor in the string. there are selectable limitation factors too. you can average over 3 or 5 races. you can create scope and elimination criteria which can be very useful. once they are built and saved they become associated with the self tuning program and the past results can determine the weights of each expression used in the handicapping process. I use all 4 of them and really like the added dimension to my handicapping processes. there are over 110 different variable factors to chose from. for example if you believe late pace is having a very strong influence on the outcome of one mile turf races you can create an expression that will amplify that factor or if you think that the best class horse who is fastest to the first quarter is producing longshots you can focus on that variable. it's a good feature of the software.
|
|
|
08-16-2010, 05:37 AM
|
#30
|
Bet small...win BIG!
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Nevada
Posts: 2,072
|
Here's a better way to self tune for anyone interested in trying it. you'll need a decent size database of race results. parsing the free results is a good way to do it since the purse value is there. focusing on the target race that we want to create a new weight for perform the search in self tune using sprint or route turf or dirt and plus and minus 20 percent of the target race purse value. for example the target race is a 6 1/2f race on the fast main track with a puse of 50000. I set up the search like this: Dirt=fast=<=1540 =40000-60000. I like to see a minimum of ten races in the search parameters. now I do q-check then f-tune, name and save. now I have a good weighting criteria to handicap this race.
|
|
|
|
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
|
|