Smile Happy - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

classhandicapper · 05-03-2022, 08:58 AM

IMO Zandon was better than Smile Happy in the Risen Star, beat him in the subsequent Blue Grass, and seems to be ready for a peak for Chad Brown. So it's obvious why Zandon is a shorter price than Smile Happy.

However, imo they might be a "little" closer than it looks.

IMO the track was not particularly kind to up close horses Blue Grass day at KEE. It was similar the next day. Smile Happy may have actually been at a disadvantage being closer up and moving first that day. But we know he'll have no trouble being further back and closing if the Derby pace requires it and may get first run on Zandon again.

I'm not saying he will turn the tables, but I'm not sure one deserves to be 3-1 and the other 20-1.

Michael · 05-03-2022, 10:18 AM

So I'm trying to be positive in life... and I'm positive that morning line is at best a rough-draft. What's with Battaglia and 30/1

PowerUpPaynter · 05-03-2022, 11:28 AM

As much as Messier gives off authentic or medina Spirit vibes the same could be said about smile happy....

BlueChip@DRF · 05-03-2022, 11:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

IMO Zandon was better than Smile Happy in the Risen Star, beat him in the subsequent Blue Grass, and seems to be ready for a peak for Chad Brown. So it's obvious why Zandon is a shorter price than Smile Happy.

However, imo they might be a "little" closer than it looks.

IMO the track was not particularly kind to up close horses Blue Grass day at KEE. It was similar the next day. Smile Happy may have actually been at a disadvantage being closer up and moving first that day. But we know he'll have no trouble being further back and closing if the Derby pace requires it and may get first run on Zandon again.

I'm not saying he will turn the tables, but I'm not sure one deserves to be 3-1 and the other 20-1.

Thanks. I was all set until you spoke. Back to restructuring tickets...

CheckMark · 05-03-2022, 11:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Michael

So I'm trying to be positive in life... and I'm positive that morning line is at best a rough-draft. What's with Battaglia and 30/1

When watching the Derby/Oaks draw I saw someone’s comment saying “Battaglia morning line is equal to Joe Biden running the county they both suck” something on that line made me laugh

Fightingirish51195 · 05-03-2022, 12:12 PM

He’s a horse I really want to like, but i don’t think he’s fast enough

classhandicapper · 05-03-2022, 12:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BlueChip@DRF

Thanks. I was all set until you spoke. Back to restructuring tickets...

Don't let me change your mind because I've changed mine 3 times since yesterday.

I'm searching for flawed short priced horses to key against and long priced horses that are better than they look to use in the verticals, but there's no one I really hate among the major contenders and no longshots I think are clearly better than people think. It's a tough race for me to take any strong stands. I'm still at the thinking out loud stage.

PowerUpPaynter · 05-03-2022, 12:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fightingirish51195

He’s a horse I really want to like, but i don’t think he’s fast enough

In the Bluegrass Smile Happy was 5 wide all the way around the first turn, considering all the ground he lost he really didnt finish that bad.

$w1fT · 05-03-2022, 02:13 PM

Is there a jock change? If not, I can't bet him. Don't like the jock.

Fightingirish51195 · 05-03-2022, 02:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

In the Bluegrass Smile Happy was 5 wide all the way around the first turn, considering all the ground he lost he really didnt finish that bad.

That’s why I want to like the horse. I saw that trip and it wasn’t good. I don’t know. He could hit the super

capitalman · 05-03-2022, 05:49 PM

McPeek wasn't trying to win the 2 preps. He was going for enough points to get in with a fresh horse for the Triple Crown series (he specifically mentioned Derby & Preakness in interviews).

PowerUpPaynter · 05-03-2022, 06:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by capitalman

McPeek wasn't trying to win the 2 preps. He was going for enough points to get in with a fresh horse for the Triple Crown series (he specifically mentioned Derby & Preakness in interviews).

I am using him on top of some of my tickets as he could fit the profile of an Authentic or Medina Spirit type i truly dont believe he can win this race and is probably best off at distances like his sire.

classhandicapper · 05-03-2022, 07:07 PM

I'm still thinking about which horses to key, which to leave off entirely, and which to leave off at the top but use in other spots, but I'm pretty sure I'll at least use this one in my verticals. IMO, he's not far off the two likely favorites and he figures to get a good setup.

gov135 · 05-03-2022, 08:43 PM

It feels like SH was - rightfully- the buzz horse coming off his two year old season. He visually has not been as dominant as a three year old. It’s such a big leap from the fall to the spring, and others catch up. He may beat me, and hats off to him, but I am tossing him.

f2tornado · 05-03-2022, 09:08 PM

I have him covered in a couple future pools. Feels like as Good Magic Jr type that might be good enough to hit the board but would need a solid jump to win. Would not be shocked but not betting on it. Horse will likely need more tactical speed and might have to display it from the 5 hole. I don't see it. Not a fan of the pilot but he occasionally ekes out a good run like on Lookin at Lee five years ago.