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04-28-2021, 03:11 PM
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#31
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,606
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I think this is generally a good thing for bettors. In some years a bet like this could hurt you if he lands on the same horse you are interested in. But then you have the option to pass or perhaps take a better look at someone else that may offer more value than it would otherwise. If he lands on a horse you don't like, it's party time.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
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04-28-2021, 04:21 PM
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#32
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 408
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
It is supposed to be an estimate of his final odds
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On the basis of decades of looking at Mike Battaglia's Derby morning lines, I wouldn't be so sure that he's factoring in the news about the big bet. Mike's linemaking methodology for the Derby seems to be all about making sure his line just adds up and doesn't offend any of the connections of the entrants. He is often nowhere close to giving a true picture of what the final odds will be (even though I agree with you that is supposed to be the true function of the morning line).
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04-28-2021, 04:31 PM
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#33
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Milkshaker
On the basis of decades of looking at Mike Battaglia's Derby morning lines, I wouldn't be so sure that he's factoring in the news about the big bet. Mike's linemaking methodology for the Derby seems to be all about making sure his line just adds up and doesn't offend any of the connections of the entrants. He is often nowhere close to giving a true picture of what the final odds will be (even though I agree with you that is supposed to be the true function of the morning line).
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Thus the "supposed." 
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04-28-2021, 04:55 PM
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#34
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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This looks like he is betting $4,000,000!
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04-28-2021, 05:48 PM
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#35
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,606
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
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__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
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04-28-2021, 07:51 PM
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#36
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Just another Facist
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Now in Houston
Posts: 52,775
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He’s getting tons of publicity in the Houston Area
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04-28-2021, 08:37 PM
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#37
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Buckle Up
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
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Looks like he's funding his account for $4 Mil... I'm guessing Exotic horizontals only.
PS- You'd think they could spell Pittsburgh correctly.
Last edited by ReplayRandall; 04-28-2021 at 08:40 PM.
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04-28-2021, 11:55 PM
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#38
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
Looks like he's funding his account for $4 Mil... I'm guessing Exotic horizontals only.
PS- You'd think they could spell Pittsburgh correctly.
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Even better, he got a first deposit matching bonus on that money, so he's got $8 million now.
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04-29-2021, 02:27 AM
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#39
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2015
Posts: 1,955
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10 percent?
So if the Mattress Man bets $4M on the M/L favorite, and there's $40M in the Win pool, he's going to knock the horse down from 2-1 to 8-5?
Or, more likely, bring the horse down from 7-2 to 5-2? EQ may or may not be the chalk.
At the end of the day, it's a big bet and all, but not like those brown lampers at Sha Tin that drop from 35-1 to 12-1 on the last couple of flashes....(with $300-$500K on them)
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04-29-2021, 11:57 AM
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#40
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2020
Posts: 166
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Andy Asaro
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He should get a good trip from there.
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04-29-2021, 06:49 PM
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#41
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Longacres transplant
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Vashon island
Posts: 237
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He might not actually bet Essential Quality. He has said he will be betting the 2-4 million dollars on the favorite whoever that ends up being.....
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04-29-2021, 06:51 PM
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#42
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Longacres transplant
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Vashon island
Posts: 237
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
Looks like he's funding his account for $4 Mil... I'm guessing Exotic horizontals only.
PS- You'd think they could spell Pittsburgh correctly.
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I believe its all going to be bet on the win end. He is doing the bet as a form of insurance for his mattress giveaway promotion.
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04-29-2021, 07:15 PM
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#43
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,548
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TMQ
He might not actually bet Essential Quality. He has said he will be betting the 2-4 million dollars on the favorite whoever that ends up being.....
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Didn't he mentiion that he could find no fault in Essential Quality's racing record?
__________________
Live to play another day.
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04-29-2021, 07:47 PM
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#44
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Buckle Up
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TMQ
I believe its all going to be bet on the win end. He is doing the bet as a form of insurance for his mattress giveaway promotion.
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I agree on the giveaway promo insurance, but he's going to single the horse in that last leg of all horizontal exotics....If gridded and weighted correctly, with a price here and there, the payoff should be larger than dumping it all in the win pool and suppressing his own price.
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04-29-2021, 08:02 PM
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#45
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,950
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Parkview_Pirate
So if the Mattress Man bets $4M on the M/L favorite, and there's $40M in the Win pool, he's going to knock the horse down from 2-1 to 8-5?
Or, more likely, bring the horse down from 7-2 to 5-2? EQ may or may not be the chalk.
At the end of the day, it's a big bet and all, but not like those brown lampers at Sha Tin that drop from 35-1 to 12-1 on the last couple of flashes....(with $300-$500K on them)
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I know its difficult for many Stateside players to rationalize the betting comparisons between the size of the local betting pools and those in Hong Kong. It’s like night and day!
A typical handicap race in HK on average generates any where between 5 to 6 Million US$ in just the Win pool.
Now multiply that by a 9 or 10 race card.
A typical Graded stakes race could generate up to 8 Million US$. In just the Win pool.
So that KY Derby Win bet of 2 to 4 Million $ is a big bet no matter how you look at it even from a HK betting perspective.
Last edited by Nitro; 04-29-2021 at 08:07 PM.
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